Friday mailbag: Competitive what now?

Fans have plenty of questions about what the Vikings' GM meant by "competitive rebuild"

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone… Does anyone else feel like the NFL season ended like six months ago? Lots to talk about so let’s dive right into these questions….

@vikesfan1930 Why extend Kirk ? He has had 6 plus coaches try and help him. He hasn’t been above 10 wins ever in his career. Even in 2016 , with a better o-line and Wr corps, he couldn’t rise above it. I’m tired of the same thing over and over. Why ? Just why?

From what I can put together from the tea leaves, the Vikings tried to trade Cousins and when the offers weren’t good enough to get the green light from ownership, Cousins’ agent put a couple of contracts on the table and they took the shortest one. The idea is to see if they can get more out of him than the previous regime could and then look toward future options otherwise. I’ll be thinking about the impact of this decision on their future as much as the 2020 extension — and they need to hope it turns out differently.

@andrew_schuba How good do we feel about Wyatt Davis working with Big Duke this off-season? I heard Courtney's comment about him... not inspiring. On that point, is Rick just saying whatever to look good for his next job? Feel like he's washing his hands but the story from CC is pretty bad.

You’re referring to Duke Manyweather, a well known O-line trainer. People in the offensive line world have told me that Duke is the real deal. He’s helped a lot of linemen in the league. Davis is smart to go see him. But Duke isn’t a miracle worker. If Davis doesn’t have it, he isn’t going to suddenly have it. I think it’s fair for us to wait and see how Davis looks in camp and preseason before we decide that he’s a bust. It’s also fair to set the expectations low because players normally need to show something in Year 1 to succeed.

@WriterChurchill As much as we think nothing has really changed, we will see a change, won't we? We won't have Zimmer's win with the defense strategy anymore, right? Because presumably KOC will use the offensive weapons we've got more efficiently... Jefferson.

That’s a complicated question. Adofo-Mensah said they are going to improve “around the margins” when it comes to the offense. We’ve written about ways they can do that like using more motion, avoiding runs on second-and-long etc., but the reality of the Vikings’ offenses is that they’ve done a lot of things right in the last few years and they’ve had a lot go right (i.e. health, elite receivers etc.). Cousins has been one of the best first-read QBs in the NFL, they’ve run a lot of play-action to help him and they’ve had Dalvin Cook as a very effective runner. There’s not a laundry list of things that can be done better. Jefferson, for example, probably could have gotten more throws his way but he finished fourth in the NFL in targets. Overall, the Vikings are 11th in scoring from 2019-2021. I’m a little skeptical of how much better they can be than that but… Kevin O’Connell was brought here to do that.

@jdbondy Is there any realm where KAM is purposely “sabatoging” a future year or two with all of these void years on contracts. Sort of forcing ownership’s hand to say “OK, rebuild?” Or no, not really…also, Andre Wadsworth…bust or injuries ruined a promising career?

The void years on contracts won’t hit them until down the road, around the time ownership will have to make a decision on Adofo-Mensah, so that wouldn’t be a great idea. I do think he’s in a position to say “I told you so” if they can’t be competitive this year and then get more latitude to make rebuilding moves after this year if they win 7 or 8 games. Wadsworth was all injuries. His rookie year was really good, he finished top-three in defensive ROY and then fell off the map. I checked and he was a 96th percentile overall athlete by Relative Athletic scores, so it wasn’t like they accidentally picked some non-athlete who was good in college.

@SrEconomy Vikings draft strategies… trading back to late in the 1st rnd to get an additional 2nd, maybe a future 2nd or 3rd to help expedite the “Competitive Rebuild/Retool”. How might we expect it to vary from the Spielman past tendencies?

Kwesi didn’t pull me aside to tell me how it would all be different from Spielman, so we’ll have to judge by what they do in the draft. If I had to guess, we could be surprised by an edge rusher when it isn’t technically a “need” right now. We shouldn’t expect them to trade fourths and fifths for bad players like Kaare Vedvik and Chris Herndon. I think your strategy of trading back is a good one but keep in mind that every pick you drop back lowers your odds of getting a great player. If you go from 12 to 18 and pick up another third, that’s probably alright. If you go from 12 to 25, that’s a huge drop in quality. It’s a delicate dance. Can’t lose sight of the fact that you have to get stars to win.

@JonMill1965 Can someone please explain the Cousins/Mannion love affair? A complete waste of a roster spot. Create a coaching position for him if he is that important to Kirk. I'd gladly take Keenum, Bridgewater, Sloter or Heinicke over him.

Let’s take Sloter out of that list. He’s in the USFL now and has never played in a real game. As for the others, here’s the problem: Those guys cost money. Bridgewater signed for $6.5 million. The Vikings do not have $6.5 million to spend on a backup. Mannion is a smart guy who can run the scout team and work with Cousins behind the scenes. He can run the offense in a pinch and that’s about the best you can do for that dollar figure. I also wouldn’t entirely count out drafting a QB and having that guy be the backup.

@LfcMay What would you be doing right now for a job if you didn’t have to decode competitive rebuilding?

Well, every day is a good day for me with this job. No matter what the conversation is surrounding the team, it’s always interesting and you guys always want to deep dive on everything, which really makes it great. We have a lotta fun, even if the Vikings’ W-L record makes it harder sometimes. Can’t ask for anything better than that. If I wasn’t doing this, I’d probably be going after a music career playing guitar or looking for something on the team/coaching/scouting side. My wife broadcasts Big 10 women’s basketball on TV so I watch all the games and I write out little scouting reports on the teams and players because it’s just what I like to do. I’ve always been fascinated by player evaluation and coaching philosophy/strategy. I’m always on the side criticizing it so it would be cool to be on the side doing it.

@markmisc Looks like we haven’t been able to address DB in free agency and will need to make it a priority in the draft. Who do they target in the 1st and/or later rounds to fill the void?

It looks like there’s two at the top and then a decent sized drop off. Sauce Gardner from Cincinnati and Derek Stingley Jr. from LSU are the two guys that have legit chances to change a defense. If they can’t get either, maybe there’s a Tampa Bay Bucs style strategy of taking several of them in the middle rounds. The Bucs picked six DBs in rounds 2 or 3 between 2018-2020. Try that. Otherwise the veteran market is pretty decent, even past the first and second waves of free agency. The Vikings should be able to grab a couple CBs cheap and hope they work out. Yes, I know that sounds familiar…

@Jon_Vaala If the “competitive rebuild” results in 8-9 or worse this season, what happens?

Great question. My first reflex is to say that it would have to be the inflection point to tear it all apart but Cousins still has that pesky no-trade clause for 2023. It would probably guarantee a first-round QB in the 2023 draft but I’m not sure they could take it down to the screws. It might have to be “competitive rebuild” 2.0 if that happens.

@kyleshaner If you could add one current or former Vikings player, coach or executive to the Purple Insider staff, whom would you choose?

First, I love having Jeremiah Sirles as part of the squad. He’s one of the most natural broadcasters as a former player that I’ve met in this biz. Aside from Sirles, the obvious pick is Randy Moss. On the less no-duh side, Latavius Murray comes to mind. He’s welcome to come aboard after he retires. Terence Newman is top five smartest football players I’ve been around, so he can come along too. Percy Harvin would be something else. I know it didn’t work out with John DeFilippo here but that guy was really good at explaining football. I wouldn’t fire him if he didn’t call for the Vikings to run more, I promise.

@RobDN1 Is my Willis to the Vikings with the 12th pick still probable?

I’m sorry Rob but… no. As expected, this “weak” QB draft class seems to have its darling. Willis has crushed the lead up to the draft and probably ends up going in the top 10. We might even see a team pull a Bears/Fields type trade and jump from behind the Vikings to take him. Guys with that arm strength and mobility aren’t just hanging around ballfields everywhere.

@Vikeman29 What’s the word on JC Tretter to the Vikings. You think that will happen? Also heard they are in on RG Erik Flowers as well.

I don’t know if they’ll get either. The Vikings have enough cap space to sign their draft class and add either one more mid-level free agent or 2-4 bargain free agents. They still need a center, guard and several corners. Some of those spots are going to be filled in the draft and they’ll need to hope that a handful of players can develop. If they spend the remaining space on interior line, that’s a better short-term solution than a rookie. Bottom line: This roster isn’t likely to change a ton.

@eleysium The worst thing in the NFL is meddling owners (Jones, Snyder, Haslam, etc.). Is that what we have now?

I don’t think it’s like that. There are many owners who always want to go for it rather than being willing to take a step back. I’m not sure this is tremendously unique. But the more bread crumbs that Rick Spielman drops about ownership, the more you get the feeling the Wilfs wanted things that Mike Zimmer didn’t want and it caused conflict. Adofo-Mensah saying “we all have a boss” the other day was ear-catching.

@BobDolezChair Neil O'Donnell or Bubby Brister?

Well, O’Donnell was clearly the better QB but the cool fact about Bubby is that at age 36 he went 4-0 as a starter for the Broncos in ‘98 when Elway was hurt. Helped them get the No. 1 seed. He had a 99.0 rating in those games, too. Amazing.

@BaseballNorm if you were GM how much would you weight each item when making your draft pick: game tape, future potential, combine/pro day numbers, interviews? Also how long do you last as GM if no Diet Dr. Pepper is available?

If there’s no Diet Dr. P, I’m not taking the job. That’s a non-starter. Anyone who reads this knows my stance on drafting: Nobody is good at it consistently. But I do think it’s all about avoiding pitfalls. So you can’t go picking bad athletes hoping that they buck history. You should pick the highest upside players because stars are the hardest thing to replace — average players can be found. Character matters a ton in the NFL but I don’t have an answer for how someone adapts to a professional environment. So you pick high-upside players at the most valuable positions (edge rusher, cornerback, QB, WR) and you aim for guys with a love for learning about football and with some toughness and hope for the best. Take a lot of shots at those things, you’ll get hits. Trade away draft picks for the Jets’ No. 4 tight end or pick three RBs in the top four rounds since 2019 or pick run-stuffing linebackers in the fourth or a long snapper etc. and you won’t get the most out of the draft.

@SkolMitzel How many prime time games do the Vikings have in 2022?

We won’t know until the schedule release but I’d guess maybe two. I’m not seeing them as a big draw this year. They’re going to have to earn that.

@Thomas_Manfredi I do think they’re “naturally” tanking, now that I think about it. The stability at QB allows them to spin “competitive rebuild”, while the rest of the roster stinks to where they won’t win more than 6-7 games. And puts them within striking distance of a top QB in ‘23.

For those who don’t listen to the podcast… I’ve coined the process of just letting a roster rot to its death the “natural tank.” That’s more or less what Atlanta and Seattle were forced to do. Signing Za’Darius Smith goes against that being their intentional plot but I think it’s possible that happens anyway. The starting roster for this team could get them into the playoffs but it’s very similar to previous years where if anything goes wrong, it’s 7-8 wins. Would that be enough for everyone to agree to overhaul the thing? Or would they still think they were a few pieces away? That might depend on whether veteran players fall off this year. If they do natural tank, we’ll look back and wonder why they kept veteran players and gave out extensions/restructures etc. that didn’t help down the road when the outcome was foreseeable. (Vegas has them favored to miss the playoffs right now, if you were wondering).

Rich via email: I have a friend who suffers from toxic positivity (legitimately) and it bleeds into his Vikings fandom. I mentioned that the team was worse today than it was at the end of 2021 and he countered that the "massively" improved front seven has "fixed" the leaky secondary. Now, I've already ripped this apart because , duh, how couldn't I, but I would like to read a breakdown from someone who covers the team about why this argument wins the gold medal in the Olympics of stupidity

By PFF’s metrics, they are the exact same team, having not gained or lost any WAR from last year. That stands to reason considering that they subbed out Griffen/Pierce/Barr/Woods/Peterson and subbed in Phillips/Hicks/Smith and haven’t changed anything else. Nothing has happened with the secondary, so I’m not sure how that’s fixed. Right now the only corners on the whole roster are Cam Dantzler, Harrison Hand, Kris Boyd and Parry Nickerson. The front seven could be much better if Smith/Hunter are healthy all season. Big if. The offensive line and weapons remain the same with the same questions. As it pertains to your friend, it’s OK to look for the good in things but we gotta live in reality. These last few weeks have been tough on people who wanted to see an overhaul and see Adofo-Mensah’s vision for the team start to take hold and instead got another Spielman type offseason.

@vikingsjazzfan With their approach to the off-season thus far, doesn’t trading into the twenties to hopefully accumulate more early contributors make the most sense?

It does because every draft simulation that I’ve run comes out with the top two corners already off the board before No. 12 and good options at the other positions of need. Even if it only comes along with another third-rounder, that’s another bite at the apple of finding quality prospects. However, the 12th pick is still on the fringe of getting a potential star. Here’s the last 10 guys drafted 12th overall: Micah Parsons, Henry Ruggs, Rashan Gary, Vita Vea, DeShaun Watson, Danny Shelton, Odell Beckham, DJ Hayden, Fletcher Cox, Christian Ponder. That’s some star power.

@CFeather64 I've been meaning to research this and maybe you can help: how many QBs in their rookie contract have won a SB since 2000? I appreciate your Vikings coverage.

So, you can’t really do since 2000 because, if you recall, teams used to have to negotiate with rookies. It wasn’t until the 2011 CBA that the rookie wage scale came into play. From 2011 on, here’s the QBs to reach a Super Bowl within the first five years of being picked: Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz (sorta), Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow. If we expand that out to reaching the Conference Championship game, you get Josh Allen and Andrew Luck. If you expand that out to at least an 11-win season on rookie deal you add Andy Dalton, Derek Carr, Mitch Trubisky, DeShaun Watson, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray.

You get the point of the exercise…

@DoctorBitz So, either Kwesi Adofo-Mensah doesn't understand the definition of a "rebuild" or the Wilfs are actually meddlesome owners forcing bad decision making. Either way, what hope is there for the franchise?

Here’s one thing we have to say: This is Adofo-Mensah’s first time in this job and it’s a huge leap from what he was doing before. It’s a really, really hard job. Coaches want one thing, owners want another, agents have their own agendas, players want to win, fans want to rebuild, media wants answers. He’s probably going to need to dump the Silicon Valley lingo because Minnesota fans aren’t going to connect very well to “time horizons” or “the joyful pursuit of excellence.” There hasn’t been joy here, go get some better players, man. The hope for the franchise is that time is undefeated and at some point, they’ll come to a spot where the roster has to come apart and start new. By then, Adofo-Mensah will have been able to adapt to the new role, learned how to balance coaches “standing on the table” for players versus the right moves and figured out when he can push back on the Wilfs’ demands.

@CorporonWade Any word on Everson Griffin? Is he going to play again or is it retirement time. I do not want him back for the Vikings but hope for the best for him.

I saw someone — maybe the Pioneer Press? — talked with him recently. I can’t see him playing again. Everson really needs to focus on himself and get to a place where he can live day to day. The NFL is very emotional and volatile. That’s a tough environment for someone fighting demons. I hope the best for him as well.

@Perciousocet Is drafting a rookie qb the only way to have a “competitive rebuild”? The chiefs drafted mahomes with Alex smith on a 2 year deal

Yes. If that’s the rebuild part, all the other stuff with the contracts this offseason becomes much less damaging to the future and the whole plan for the next two years becomes clear. If they draft a corner, I won’t understand the rebuild part of it. That would be fine had they done some crazy overhaul where they brought in stars and moved other players out and went for broke this year. But they didn’t do that either.