Friday mailbag: Combine reactions

The NFL machine rolls on and we react to press conferences and Combine rumors

Sign up for Purple Insider for $7 per month or $64 per year to get credentialed access inside the Vikings, from in-depth analysis to behind-the-scenes features to the ever-popular Friday Mailbag. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

INDIANAPOLIS AIRPORT — Happy Friday everyone. I’m headed back to Minnesota after a couple very interesting days at the NFL Combine. Let’s get into what Vikings fans want to know about this week’s events and what’s next…

@SKOLinATL·2hReplying to @MatthewCollerIn your opinion..What percentage Cousins is kept and extended? What percentage Cousins traded? Percentage Hunter extended? Percentage Harry released?

After everything I heard in Indy, I’ll say 50% he’s kept for 2022 only, 10% extended and 40% traded. The Hunter situation is less clear. I’ll go 50-50. And probably only 15% that Smith is gone. They keep name-dropping him (and I don’t blame them, Smith is still very good).

@G3R4LD26 With the polarization of Kirk Cousins and the toxicity that surrounds him on this bird app. How badly do you not want to cover him as a Vikings QB this coming season?

At every moment of my career, I’ve been writing/talking about something polarizing. When I first started as an AHL reporter, there was a prospect that everyone loved who was actually quite bad. I wrote about him being bad and some fans got mad and yelled at me online. When I covered the NHL and the Buffalo Sabres tanked, a handful of fans were unhappy when I wrote that tanking for Jack Eichel was the right move. They yelled at me online. When I wrote that Case Keenum wasn’t a long-term option at quarterback during my 1500ESPN days, some fans were unhappy with that. If they trade Cousins, something else will come up. Little Twitter floating heads have no influence on how I feel about covering the Vikings. It’s a dream job every day. If Cousins is the QB next year, I’ll report on him the same way as always. The only things that affect my job negatively are bad press box food, flight delays and stadiums without clear signs for media entrances.

@NorthStarsNHL When do you predict there will be finality on a Cousins decision for the 2022 season via a trade, and extension or then announcing he will play the final year as is?

If the Vikings extend Cousins, we can expect that to come in the next few weeks because they would want to create cap space to use in free agency. A trade could happen at any time. Matthew Stafford was traded in January, Sam Bradford was traded in August. Who knows. You would think sooner than later but you never know what could spark an offer. McVay had drinks with Stafford in Mexico to get that trade brewing. Stefon Diggs got himself traded on Twitter. There won’t be any kind of grand announcement if he’s staying without an extension, it will just happen.

By the way, did anybody else notice that the Combine was the first time that bigger name draft analysts started to include the Vikings among teams that might be in the mix for Malik Willis? Not a coincidence.

@WriterChurchill Who was the top player you saw during the combine that excited you? Doesn't even have to be someone the Vikings would realistically draft.

So the thing about reporting on the Combine is that most people who cover teams only go from Tuesday-Thursday because we aren’t inside Lucas Oil Stadium for the workouts, which happen during the second half of the week. We’re there to talk to the coaches/GMs and whoever else happens to be around. But if there’s one player who was the talk of Indy leading up to those workouts, it was Malik Willis. It feels like he’s going very high in the draft after this week. As I’m writing this I’m watching on TV as the receivers run 40s and they are wowing. The defensive ends are supposed to go nuts as well.

@jasnyder123 Ignoring the current roster, how would the new regime grade areas of importance after QB to build a team? Tackle, Edge, Corner in that order followed MLB or S or interior lines? Zimmer stressed DT pass rush and off-ball LB more than some teams it seemed

We tried to get Adofo-Mensah to talk about this but he didn’t take the bait. I asked PFF’s Eric Eager and he ranked receiver at the top, then edge, then anyone in the secondary at the top. Interior D-line pass rush is very important as well. If I had to guess based on the places Adofo-Mensah came from, I’d say they value defensive line extremely high. Dominant D-lines make everything else work easier on the back end.

@ImDanEdwards Who was the Vikings greatest 6th round pick of all time?

You thought I wouldn’t look up every sixth round pick by the Vikings but I did. Here’s your top 5: Matt Birk, John Sullivan, Todd Scott, Steve Bono, Mike Jones.

Honorable mention: Robert Tate, David Morgan, Blair Walsh, Brandon Fusco, Joe Webb.

Was it silly for the Vikings to stack sixth and seventh rounders under Spielman? You decide. I’m just asking the question.

@BIG_dannn After hearing of Kirk not taking a discount & our GM talk. Is a Alex smith trade to Wsh. probably the best the Vikings get if they can trade him either two 3rds or a 3rd and a starter ? I rather get two thirds & a team take his cap then a 1st w/ 20 mil in dead cap

I don’t mind either option. If there’s another club that wants to agree to an extension before a trade and takes the whole hit, that’s a good deal. If the Vikings have to eat some cap room now to get a better pick, that’s a good deal. Sacrificing 2022 cap space is really not problematic because they want to spend shrewdly this offseason anyway. They need to get cap healthy and be ready for a big spending offseason in 2023 rather than just worrying about making as much space as they can this year. I loved the comment Andrew Brandt (former Packers cap guy) made on Twitter. He said that anyone can restructure deals to get under the cap but the smartest teams don’t have to do that.

Dan via email Q1 - If you were Kwesi, where would you draw the line in the sand on the Annual Average Value for Hunter, assuming a 4 year deal? And how much of that would be guaranteed?

This is where the rubber meets the road. If you’re on Hunter’s side, how do you take anything less than $22-$25 million per year when TJ Watt is pushing $30 million? But if you’re the Vikings, how do you pay more than $22 million to a guy with his injury history and with so many other needs? Once you get into the $20+ range, there’s no fiddling around with it to make the cap hit easy to swallow. To take a swing at your question: If they don’t kick it down the road with a short-term adjustment, I’d say five years, $23 million AAV and $40 million fully guaranteed.

Dan via email Q2 -  On a Cousins extension, where would you guess the highest Kwesi would offer Kirk on a 3 year deal? Maybe Kirk would play for a Purple Insider subscription? Personally, I hope the current impasse is greater than $10 million per year so a trade is inevitable. 

I don’t think they’re as low on Cousins as you but imagine if QBs were actually paid on a sliding scale of best to worst rather than $40 million or nothing. If we agree that Rodgers is at the top with $40 million, Cousins would realistically make in the $25 million per year range. If they offer him something like that on an extension, his agent will flip a table and walk out. Or maybe just politely decline and hit free agency.

It’s also really about cap percentage more than actual dollars. If Cousins made 10% of the cap, that would be a good deal for the Vikings. That probably won’t happen.

@JoshuaR_Smith If Troy Williamson were still a Viking, give us your best impersonation of a quote from KOC or Kwesi regarding his attributes.

“Well Josh, we want to be intentional in our approach to using players and, let me tell you, a receivers coach with the 49ers once told me that you can’t coach speed and I think when we collaborate, our data with our coach’s eyes, we see a player whose speed can’t be taught, so we’re going to do everything we can to allow him to do what he does best, which is be fast. It’s funny, I called Troy and I told him, man, you’re fast. He was like, yeah man, I’m excited about being your Road Runner. I was like, cool man, let’s go. Meep, Meep! Let’s put on our team-issued sweats and get to work using that speed.”

Side note: I joke but in the side session with reporters, I got the impression Adofo-Mensah wants Vikings fans to understand their thought processes as best as he’s able to explain them. That’s a change that should be welcomed.

@RandBallsStu will you refer to a draft prospect's thighs/buttocks as "haunches" (ex: "Terrific burst and standout haunches for Aidan Hutchinson.") as part of your combine analysis

I’m down to start using “haunches.” Great word.

@Gizanked I know there is no way Kwesi trades down as much as Rick, but analytics seems to agree that more swings at the plate is the desired approach, and I know there's no way to tell untill we see a few drafts from him but what is the over/under for Kwesi trade downs?

There’s some smart areas to trade down. Let’s say you’re drafting 12th and Washington took Malik Willis and broke your heart, so now you don’t want any quarterbacks because you’re too sad. Trade down to No. 18 and take the fourth best edge rusher, whose talent is really equal to a top 10 pick. That’s what the Vikings essentially did with Christian Darrisaw and that was a very bright trade down. Spielman did some smart things.

@JordanWrightNFL If Kellen Mond was in this year's draft, where do you think he'd be ranked among the other QB?

He was a third-round pick so if five dudes get drafted before the third round, he’s in fifth place. If two dudes get drafted before the third round, he’s in third place. If we’re trying to say how he would have compared at this time last year, I don’t think he’d be in the conversation with the potential first rounders, just like he wasn’t last year. Mond wasn’t a particularly exciting prospect.

@youvikethat1 If your personality was a pass route, what route are you?

There’s a route called a “dino” where you basically fake a slant, then fake a corner, then run a post. It’s wild. I like that it’s a little bit of everything and a lot of fun. That’s me, right guys? Right? Anybody?

@mattverick What was one thing you learned from the combine that you didn't expect?

I really didn’t know how Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell were going to handle the quarterback questions and I thought they left more bread crumbs about the situation than expected. Overall I was surprised by how some of the QB questions were answered around the league. Some more honest than expected, some (like the Browns) were guarded to the point that I thought something was up. Another thing I kept hearing was how much the analytics presence has grown. The Vikings are in the right spot with where the league stands because analytics were much more of a conversation than any other time I’ve been in Indy.

@pollock_34 I wanna hear a little bit more about how the new regime and their system looks at offensive lineman? Are we finally going to get some maulers at interior positions?

We did get Adofo-Mensah to say that he “loves” Ezra Cleveland, so there’s that. When you look at the Browns and 49ers, both teams invested heavily on the offensive line and threw a lot of numbers at it. Linemen develop at different paces, meaning if you’re the team who spots the Wyatt Teller getting cut by somebody else, you can hit a home run. But you probably have to take a bunch of chances to find that guy. I also heard good things about the new O-line coach. PFF actually found evidence of certain O-line coaches boosting performance, maybe that will be a difference maker. As far as specific types of players, we’ll have to see. They praised Garrett Bradbury and may have reason to let that one play out. There was no mention of the right guard job, so I’m thinking they address that in free agency.

@MattAnderson_8 What was one of your biggest takeaways from the combine? Specifically both the social aspect and the football aspects.

My biggest takeaway is that I couldn’t find anyone to tell me it was a good idea to give Cousins a contract extension. A dozen or so people in the NFL that I talked to, with all sorts of different NFL jobs, had the same conclusion: Let him play it out or trade him. From the social aspect, it was great to meet many folks who have supported me along the way. I met lots of reporters who have come on the show and gotten behind Purple Insider despite never having met in person until now.

@chasehanson77 Should the Vikings draft James Cook as a change of pace? Also if they do should they switch numbers at halftime once in a while and see if people notice

If they spend draft capital on the running back position, Kwesi’s Analytics Guy membership should be stripped.

@tjkill81 What is your hand size?

I’ve never measured but I’d guess it’s around Kenny Pickett size. It’s not easy for me to huck an NFL football with these regular fella hands. I get why these football guys obsess over it.

@BaseballNorm What combine winner from years past did you think was can’t miss after their workout and majorly flopped? What combine drill do people overvalue the most?

The 40-yard dash is the most overvalued by the outside world. Teams are often studying the running part for specifics, like how fast the max speed was for receivers and corners or how fast the first 10 yards were for linemen. I don’t know that I’ve ever thought someone was can’t-miss. I love draft season but I try to avoid conflating that with super strong takes about prospects. I need to see them in the third week of training camp before I have any idea if they’ll work out. Here’s one I remember though…Will Hernandez crushed the Combine and we all started mocking him to the Vikings. When they passed and picked Mike Hughes instead, everyone freaked out.

@Erik04172824 This new regime is doing well and it’s hard to see which way they are headed as they haven’t really tipped their hand on anything. Hell they even threw love at CJ Ham. Is Bradbury our starting OC in 2022? Who’s the pick on your head (right now) at 12 if we stay?

There isn’t much of a hand to tip. There’s two interesting topics with this team: Cousins and Hunter. I believe O’Connell with the CJ Ham love. If you have a good fullback, you don’t kick him to the curb, you use him. It’s an advantage because opposing defenses do not like putting in extra linebackers. Right now I’ll say that Bradbury is the starting center but he won’t be without training camp competition. The pick right now is Matt Corral because Malik Willis is going to be taken. If it’s not a quarterback, it’s a defensive end.

@FouhyStan Is Kevin O'Connell the real deal?

No idea. Nothing prepares you to be an NFL head coach. His approach sounds very reasonable. Then again, Dan Campbell’s approach sounded straight out of Ric Flair’s handbook and then his players ended up loving him. Most of us have never managed anything in our life. Imagine managing 53 players, a dozen coaches, owners, alumni, agents, media etc. with literally millions of people studying your every move. Somebody in Indy told me that it takes two or three years to really know if somebody can coach because it takes that long to understand how to even do the job.

@kevingustafson Has anything changed on your opinion of what will happen at qb?

Well, not much in terms of what they should do or what I think is most likely but I think the timeline might stretch out farther than I originally thought because it has to be clear that Wilson and Rodgers aren’t going anywhere and Jimmy Garoppolo has to find a new home for other dominos to fall. Heck, we might even need to see where some free agent QBs land before we know if there could be a Cousins trade out there because guys like Winston and Mariota are (fairly) legit starters.

@skiyouMeeko Assuming that Kirk is gone and space is created, Choice between the positions of CB & edge and which would you address in FA and which would you address in the draft? Thanks

For me it’s edge rusher. If you draft a pass rusher who’s very good, they usually stay very good year after year. And when you can create muddy pockets for quarterbacks on a consistent basis, everything else becomes easier. Everyone wants Jalen Ramsey but shutdown corners are so rare and cornerbacks are so fickle. Get a monster pass rusher and then get another one and your defensive coordinator will look smarter.

@dixdickiemo Which QB skill is most easily improved by NFL coaches? Read progressions, pocket presence, accuracy, etc

That’s a great question. In the past, I heard a lot of people say that you couldn’t improve accuracy. But some guys have done that once they’ve gotten to the league. I think it’s pocket presence. It’s almost a natural thing that happens in someone’s DNA where you know how to make plays and shuffle around to create extra space for yourself or you don’t. How would you even simulate that in drills? Running after the QB with a broom isn’t the same as Khalil Mack running at you.

@SKOLSTAHL Can you lay out your best case scenario for the Vikings in 2022 regular season? Everything goes right, and what that might look like?

Success in 2022 is finding out everything that you need to know. If they don’t trade Cousins, it’s learning whether another coach could get more out of him. If they do trade Cousins, it’s figuring out whether your rookie QB can play (even if he sits behind a veteran). It’s evaluating everyone who might be a part of the future i.e. Wyatt Davis, Chazz Surratt, Kene Nwangwu, Cam Dantzler, Christian Darrisaw and on and on. And along the way everyone has a good time. If the Vikings had the 2021 season but instead of with a veteran team and a coach on the hot seat they did it with a new coach, new QB and a bunch of young guys on defense, it might have been pretty promising and interesting.