Friday Mailbag: Caleb Williams said what?

The Bears QB said he wanted to play for the Vikings in an unexpected May news drop

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone! We have a schedule and a strange Caleb Williams story so let’s get right into it…

Eldon… What are the odds with an 11-6 record that the Vikings would be able to clinch the NFC North and at least one home playoff game? Bonus do the Wolves win a championship before the Vikes?

The odds are pretty decent that an 11-win team can win the NFC North. Look at last year around the league, the AFC South, NFC South and NFC West were all won with 10 games and the AFC North was taken with 12 wins. In 2023 there were four divisions won with either 11 wins or fewer so it happens fairly often. We should think of last year as every NFC North team getting a three-game turbo boost from the AFC South. That is not going to happen again with the divisions they are facing so it should even things out. I could see it coming down completely to the head-to-head matchups because at least three of these teams are very strong. We’ll see about the Bears — maybe midway through the season Caleb Williams will try to defect to Minnesota.

I’m gonna say it about the Wolves: I think they win it all. Everything has fallen their way, including OKC and Denver needing seven games. Those teams are going to be gassed. Even in the Eastern Conference it’s all lining up.

Brent… Is the "schedule release" the worst manufactured event on the NFL calendar? Everyone knows well ahead of time who the opponents are. Other than international games the only intrigue are which games are national games. But some of the social teams are entertaining I guess.

Nah, you can’t get me on board with that negativity my man. I love the schedule release. My entire life watching football I’ve gotten pumped for the day that I could look at the schedule for the first time and pick the games. It’s a great time to see how the season is laid out and talk about how we think it’s all going to go, which games we’re looking forward to most, the best road trips, the toughest matchups.

In general it’s a life philosophy of mine that if people are doing something that they think is fun and hurts nobody, it’s cool with me. Football fans love the schedule release, let them enjoy it.

In fact, Brent, try this: Go grab yourself a Vikings schedule, write down how you think every game is going to go and send it to me. I bet you have fun doing it.

Myles… Will the first portion of the schedule, particularly the overseas games, be an advantage or disadvantage for McCarthy?

It’s an advantage for McCarthy specifically because he doesn’t have to face TJ Watt or Myles Garrett in their home stadiums. Otherwise, I’m not really sure. On one hand, it’s pretty darn chaotic to practice, watch film, implement gameplans and get on a consistent schedule when you have so much going on with the travel and all the pomp and circumstance around the game. That might be a distraction and make it harder for him to stay on track after getting in a rhythm over the first three weeks.

At the same time, that’s life in the NFL. It would be easy if every team had a noon kickoff every week on Sunday but the league doesn’t work like that anymore. He’s already going to learn how to adapt to back-to-back national TV games to start his career. Gotta figure it out.

IceColdNorth… How many more opportunities will media members have to get a look at JJ McCarthy's progress before training camp kicks off?

I believe we will see him at OTAs three times and minicamp for a couple days. We will judge every single rep as if its going to determine his entire career!

Kidding. But it will be interesting to see his first opportunity to be The Guy, even if it’s just in practice where they will mostly be doing 7-on-7s.

We’re all going to have to keep in mind that this is the “learning phase” of the offense and not the intense camp practices that usually tell us how the team is really going to look during the season. I know everyone will want overreactions about how many passes he completes and all that but I’m going to approach it cautiously.

Kip… Does 12-5 seem too high for JJ and the offense ? Also is Purple Insider going international this year ?

It’s a little on the high side but not crazy by any means. Here’s a little factoid about the Vikings offense last year: When you add in all the sacks that Sam Darnold took and the hideous running game, they ranked 15th in Expected Points Added offensively. Overall they could have a better offense even if McCarthy doesn’t play as well as Darnold just based on running better and taking fewer sacks. Those issues caused bouts with inconsistency and they only had the 13th best percentage of drives producing points. If they can be better than that, there is a chance to win 12 games even with a very tough schedule. Of course, they’re going to need an elite defense too.

Purple Insider is not sure about international. Right now it’s not in the plans because I want to make sure that I have the budget for the postseason. Last year traveling to Seattle, Detroit and Glendale to finish the season was a lot.

We’ll see how it goes. Tell your friends to subscribe!

Bill…. Which of the teams the Vikings play this season are the most likely to be less competitive this year in your opinion?

That’s a bit of a hard question because teams like the Eagles and Lions aren’t likely to be as strong as they were last year record wise but that doesn’t make them any less competitive. Trying to fit the teams to that exact description, I’d probably go with Pittsburgh and Seattle as the teams with the best chance to be worse than they were last year. Even if Aaron Rodgers is playing QB, I’m not sure how anybody could be optimistic about the way things are going in Pittsburgh and Sam Darnold might regress from last year with a poor offensive line and away from KOC/JJ/JA etc.

PickleEnjoyer… You talked about how Anthony Edwards could play in the NFL last week and it reminded me of my law school roommate insisting that NHL players were better athletes than NFL players on account of the relative difficulty of the two sports. As much as I love Minnesota, I don't think the best athletes in America come from here or Helsinki or whatever. What say you?

The NHL isn’t even remotely in the same stratosphere as the NBA and NFL. Think about it from a pure numbers perspective. People in Canada, Minnesota, New York, New England and Michigan play hockey. People in every single state in the nation play basketball and football. How many people even know how to skate? How many know how to run or catch or shoot a ball? The pool you’re drawing from is 500x bigger just from the start.

Also something to consider: Anthony Edwards is 6-foot-4 and probably 230 pounds. That’s bigger than Zach Bogosian. Bigger than Marcus Foligno. Yet he can yam from the free throw line with ease.

If we’re talking about NFL Combine style speed, explosion and movement skill, the hockey guys would watch Justin Jefferson and Anthony Edwards and just walk out of the building. Of course, if either of those two players tried to skate with NHL players, they’d fall on the ice in sheer sadness. Athleticism comes in a lot of forms, I guess.

NeverPlayedMadden… Per ESPN, apparently Caleb Williams told his dad he “I need to go to the Vikings” before last year’s draft. Is McCarthy a better fit for KOC? Or would you trade McCarthy for Williams and a late round pick swap?

I would not trade McCarthy for Williams. Maybe that take is going to turn out to be a really, really bad one eventually but I have some very serious concerns about Williams on multiple levels. Sacks are hard to fix. I think he’s going to be incredibly inconsistent trying to do the Mahomes stuff. He doesn’t see the field particularly well and drops his eyes in a panic pretty often. I don’t see much in terms of leadership traits either. He gave up in some big college games that didn’t go his way and he did it in NFL games last year. Very Justin Fields-esque. It’s hard to spot the same type of dog in him.

The more damning quote than wanting to play for Minnesota was him using the excuse that nobody showed him how to watch film. That reminded me of Laquon Treadwell saying he never learned to run routes. Excuses.

No doubt McCarthy is less gifted. He’s a good athlete but Williams is a mind-blowing athlete. But that’s not what always determines success in the NFL. Oftentimes it’s about execution and leadership and then adding some occasional brilliance.

Jan… Why does it take so long to sign the draft class? I thought the spot they got picked dictates the contract. What leverage do the rookies have to negotiate?

Since the Vikings have never had any issues with getting those done, I’ve never asked. I think it’s something to do with the structure of guarantees.

Florian… The NFL never does anything haphazard, other than maybe player fines. (which would be an interesting topic) And it's no secret that the league would like to grow globally. Do these two games in the UK kinda sorta smell like an NFL lab experiment for logistical and physiological considerations?

The VP of Broadcast Planning for the NFL was on with Ross Tucker today and he said that it was something that Roger Goodell came up with and the Vikings were “eager” to do. I’m guessing that’s because they loved the idea of two neutral site games rather than two road games and the fact that KOC has won both his trips overseas. If anything, I would guess that they love to have the Vikings over there because they are so popular in Europe and that allowed them to ask one fewer team than normal.

Could it be the NFL looking at whether they could put two teams overseas and have NFL teams travel over there for two weeks at a time and play both clubs? Well, I certainly wouldn’t put it past them. Making the game completely international has clearly been a Goodell goal.

Kyle… On a scale of 1-10 how hilarious is it that the Bears were so incompetent that Caleb Williams was actively trying to find a way to not get drafted by the Bears. Also, after everything that has happened over the past few year can we confidently say KOC is at minimum a top 3 coach for the QB position specifically.

You know what really stands out about this Caleb Williams thing: The Bears didn’t use their own No. 1 pick on him. They used Carolina’s pick. Williams wasn’t even taking over the worst spot in the top three — not even close! Think about how horrendous the QB history of the Commanders has been. Think about how pathetic the Patriots have been since Brady left and the fact that Drake Maye was inheriting a team with receivers who will soon be selling insurance. Neither of those guys said a thing about not wanting to play for those franchises. And even if they had the thought that they were hoping KOC and Kwesi would find a way to trade up for them, they never told a reporter that information.

It’s some really, really suspect behavior by Williams.

Marvin F….Can you pie chart the probability of the Vikings winning the Superbowl for each year during the next 5 years. Assume JJ's rookie deal with the 5th year option taken, plus 1 year with JJ on an average top 10 qb salary. For example year 1 (2025/26)= 5% chance, year 2 (2026/27) =10% chance, year 3 (2027/28)=25% chance, year 4 (2028/29)=35% chance, year 5 (2029/30)=25% chance

What are the vikings options if Kwesi doesn't sign a new contract going into next season? Assuming his key staff also have contracts which run until 2026 can they really let him and his team manage the draft next year? I believe his contract would end after the draft? Could they put him and key staff on gardening leave and bring in a new GM mid season?

I’m not sure you can pie chart the possibility of the Vikings winning the Super Bowl in the next five years because realistically the chances are like 5% in all of those years. If you told me that you went into the future and found out the Vikings won the Super Bowl and I had to guess which year using percentages, I’d put 25% on this year, 40% on next year, 15% on 2027 and 10% on 2028 and 2029. Clearly the next three years are their best window with Jefferson in his prime.