Friday Mailbag: Big game time
The Vikings have a massive game this weekend and fans have lots of questions...
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone! Pretty big contest this weekend, huh. Well, let’s dive into your questions and takes….
Kip N… Matthew 1) who wins ? 2) if the Vikings lose by a mile, does it change the narrative? 3) if the Vikings win close, does it change the narrative?
1- My copout answer is that I think the Vikings win if Aaron Jones plays. It feels like they have to be able to control the clock and hit on screens in order to beat the Lions and I’m not sure they can do that at the same level without Jones. Either way, it feels like one of those last-minute drives by somebody.
2- I hear people use the word “narrative” all the time and oftentimes I can’t really figure out how it’s being used. It feels like that word has been turned to mean something sinister. Anyway, the definition of narrative is, “a way of presenting or understanding events.” If the Vikings get blown out, then my understanding of the events will change a little, yes. Certain statements about the Vikings at 5-0 with the best point differential in the NFL would be viewed differently if they came off the bye week at home and got blasted. We could pretty clearly state that the Lions were still the team to beat in the NFC at that point. Seems like a fair way of presenting the facts, should that happen.
3- My understanding of the events if they were to win would not change much if they won close vs. Detroit. We all expect a close game. The math for the rest of the season is just different with a win. At 6-0 with the easiest part of the schedule coming up and a two-game lead over the Lions, the Vikings could be called the best team in the NFL at that point because they would have the best chance to have the NFL’s best record.
Ben…. What’s a weakness in the lions that the Vikings can exploit??
Always and forever, Jared Goff under pressure. All QBs are bad under pressure, but he’s terrible. He currently ranks 26th of 34 in PFF grade under pressure. Going back over the last five years (out of about 40 QBs each year), Goff ranked 21st, 30th, 25th, 37th, 15th.
But he’s a hard dude to pressure. 21 QBs have faced pressure more often than him this year, 23 last year, 28 the year before. His career sack percentage is 5.0%, which is in the top 25 all time. He’s close to Tom Brady (4.5%) in that regard.
Otherwise, they have a rookie corner. Terrion Arnold has only given up a 91.1 rating on throws into his coverage but he has eight penalties. That has sunk his PFF grade to the lowest on the Lions’ defense. I would imagine the Vikings will try to get Jefferson and Addison matched up against him to see if he’s going to be extra grabby this week.
Brad L… Who replaces Cashman?
It’s going to be a mix and match situation. Ivan Pace Jr. is going to take over the communication. Beside him I could see a combination of Kamu Grugier-Hill, Josh Metellus, Andrew Van Ginkel and maybe even a little more Dallas Turner in the mix off the edge if Van Ginkel slides to the middle for some plays. It’s nice for this Vikings team to have enough depth and versatility that an injury shouldn’t completely take apart the operation. That said, Cashman is a top 10 linebacker by PFF and he’s been the head of the defensive snake this year. It’ll take a complete team effort to fill his shoes.
Steve C… I like the matchup one level down. Ben Johnson and the Lions O against BFLo and the D is as good as it gets. KOC and the Viking O are on that level. Aaron Glenn and the DET D have not been on that level. Are they on that level this year? Is it because of opponents and game script, or are they legit? Do we have to tune in Sunday to find out?
Defense is such a tricky beast. I always thought Glenn’s defenses did not produce at the same level he was praised, if that makes sense. They also didn’t have impressive personnel in the past. This year they are 11th in defensive Expected Points Added and third in opposing QB rating. The question is: How much of that is because of their opponents and the way Aidan Hutchinson was playing? The Hutchinson loss is absolutely massive.
Despite their success in pass defense, I have trouble believing the Lions can cover the Vikings’ receivers. For them it has to be about Branch and Joseph causing turnovers and getting interior pressure up front.
Dan… Nobody ever does offensive line rotations, because that group has to "gel." And also because OL depth is thin around the league. Is this the situation where we can see that happen at RG? Start Risner and switch to Ingram if we have a lead and want to run more.
There must be something about it that’s too difficult but I used to wonder about this when the Vikings had Brett Jones. If you’re down 10 points and everybody knows you’re going to pass, why not use the pass protecting guard? Or if you’re up 17 points in the fourth quarter, bring in the run blocking guy? I don’t have a great answer for why that wouldn’t work.
By the way, it isn’t like Ingram is Steve Hutchinson or Randall McDaniel when it comes to the run game. He ranks 41st out of 62 by PFF grade. I don’t think it’s a particularly difficult choice at RG going forward.
Substack user… What are the odds that this is a preview of the NFC Championship?
Maybe 25%? Which is really high odds when you consider how many teams there are. There’s such a long way to go in the season and then the playoffs can be incredibly unpredictable. Right now these are clearly the two best teams in the NFC but think about last year when the Packers were left for dead after they lost to the Vikings in Week 8 and then they ended up one drive from the NFC Championship game.
Still, when you look around, who’s even threatening to be better than these two teams? If the 49ers beat the Chiefs, they will earn some street cred. Washington is dangerous. Philly still doesn’t look credible. Neither does Seattle or Dallas. I think Chicago is going to hit some rough patches once their schedule toughens up. It’s right there for the Vikings and Lions.
Jamie… For your Friday mailbag… Trade idea: our 2025 first round and Sam Darnold for Matthew Stafford and a 3rd or 4th. Thoughts are Stafford is close to retirement anyways, might as well give him one more shot at the Super Bowl as a mercenary. Rams extend Darnold for a Baker-ish contract. Win-win-win.
That’s a fun Madden trade. I see the logic but sending Darnold packing when he’s playing at this level and Stafford is struggling doesn’t make a lot of sense. Quarterbacks in their mid-30s often hit a wall and Stafford is kinda looking that way this year. Yes, he would play better with Jefferson, Addison etc., but how much better are we talking when he has to drop into the middle of the season and play for a completely new team? Plus, the thing about this team that really stands out is the chemistry. Are you blowing that up? I couldn’t consider it unless there was an injury to Darnold. If he got hurt, then Stafford would become a real possibility.
peter s… I think I would pick the over on this game. Hopefully, Vikings 38, Lions 35. Also, they need better pass blocking in the middle for this game. Is Risner ready?
I’m not sure if Risner is ready. He said that he is and actually seemed like he was a little frustrated that he hadn’t been brought of IR yet but that was just my read from his comments.
I’m not quite on board with the crazy shootout. Both defenses are improved from last year. I’m going more along the lines of 24-21.
Chuck A…Outside of getting absolutely throttled the next two games (an unlikely scenario imo), do you think the results have any major impact on the likelihood of making an all-in trade, i.e., sending out a future 1st? To me, going 2-0 raises the likelihood, 1-1 and 0-2 don't really change it much from where it is now, with the caveat of how you lose matters a bit, of course.
Logically speaking, it shouldn’t matter that much. They should already be pretty far down the road on a decision about whether they’d be going wild with a trade and moving their 2025 first-round pick. But you can’t really simulate in any meeting the feeling of 7-0 if they win the next two games. At that point, how can you not send out a league-wide email asking for offers on the first? How many opportunities in a lifetime does a team get a chance like that?
Here’s an absolutely bonkers stat: There have been 42 instances of teams starting their season 7-0. 10 of them won the Super Bowl, another 10 went to the Super Bowl and lost. Basically if you get to 7-0, you’re 50-50 to make the Super Bowl. All freaking in at that point, friends.
Justin M… Curious to know why, in your recent “dream trade” pontificating, upgrades to the Guard position aren’t mentioned a lot. I think you would agree its perhaps their worst single performing position on any given Sunday. Is it that somehow interior linemen just cannot swap teams and be effective mid-season or another reason?
There just aren’t many guards who would be available and make for a significant upgrade. Brandon Scherff from Jacksonville is the only rent-a-player that I can come up with who would be worth sending a couple fifth-rounders and I can’t land on anyone who would be available that’s worth sending the first-round pick. There’s only maybe 6-8 teams who will be serious sellers and those teams usually don’t have a ton of great players, otherwise they’d be winning. It’s a supply and demand issue. If I’m missing somebody at RG that they could acquire, let me know in the comments.
Mike T…. Nationally, and sometimes locally, we're nail biting that Sam will "revert" to the old Sam who, let's remember, was surrounded by very little talent early in his career. Players like Lamar, Josh and Aaron are slobbered over year after year... and YET... their teams keep trying to ADD players. They give Lamar King Henry, Josh gets Diggs and now Cooper & now Aaron gets a future HOF player in Adams. How is Dak doing without a running game? How are the Rams with Stafford this year? What is obvious is NO QB, even MVPs can win without surrounding talent. There's context to everything and as a Darnold Defender, I think it's time to back off the tired narrative that HE is destined for a regression. He has great talent around him now... Mahomes is an anomaly, so can we PLEASE be fair about how we assess QB talent?
Nobody forgot that Sam Darnold was lacking talent early in his career. It’s literally the only thing that’s been talked about with him for about six straight months now.
Also, nobody claims that QBs aren’t impacted by their supporting casts.
There’s that “narrative” word again, so let’s use it properly. My “way of understanding events” is that Darnold struggled so much earlier in his career that it’s reasonable to wonder if he’s going to continue to play at an elite level. As anyone tries to project anything — from the weather to the price of car insurance to baseball Wins Above Replacement — the past is going to be weighed into the equation. Personally, I think Darnold has shown us “events” that have both been incredible and concerning. There have been far more high-end plays than low end and the fact that the concerning ones haven’t mattered in the W-L column tells you about the overall strength of this team. I’d lean pretty heavily toward the Vikings continuing to win with him. Is a regression still in the back of my mind because of his past? Yeah, it is.
Your logic doesn’t really fit because it basically suggests that all QBs are the same and everything is about supporting casts. That can’t really be the case because Lamar Jackson won MVP with Marquise Brown catching 46 passes as his top wide receiver and Josh Allen presently has 13 TD 0 INTs and he just put up a 127.9 QB rating against the same Jets defense the Vikings struggled against.
Even Darnold wouldn’t tell you that he had zero responsibility for his previous bumps in the road and especially sacks and turnovers tend to be somewhat consistent with QBs.
Anyway, I’m not sure why you’re so offended by the idea that people would be wondering if a QB’s play is going to continue when it’s never happened in a player’s past. That question is always raised when any QB comes out of nowhere to have an amazing season. He’s playing great, it’ll probably continue, just enjoy it rather than worrying about what the “narrative,” “nationally.”
Neil T… Is it crazy to think that right now the top five NFC teams are, in whatever order, SF and the entire NFC North? I dunno maybe Washington is up there, but their defense is lacking. Can you even think of the last time any NFL division had all four teams looking as strong as the NFC North does now?
I want to see San Francisco beat the Chiefs if I’m going to put them ahead of Washington. I liked what I saw from the Commanders against the Ravens last week. Jayden Daniels is really a type of rookie QB that we’ve never seen before because he’s so old. Usually he’d be coming out of college at like 21 and have no idea what he’s doing but he has had some minor league type seasons honing his game. Plus that offense and O-line gives him a lot to work with.
I’m not dismissing San Fran because Brock Purdy is playing great, I’m just wondering if they can ever be healthy. I might consider putting SF and WAS and taking out Chicago. Long term the Bears are a problem. But their schedule has been stunningly easy to start the year, particularly the last two weeks.
As far as historically, there was a season that all four teams finished above .500. The 2002 AFC West had two 8-8 teams, one 9-7 and one 12-4. The 2013 NFC West had 13-3, 12-4, 10-6 and 7-9. That could be like this NFC North.
OldDrummer55… Coller, how do your friends in Lost Wages explain the Vikings performance so far?
Well, I did look at the history of over-unders before the season when I wrote about the oft-referenced 6.5 win total in Vegas and what I found was that the over-under number goes over and under about 50/50. The hard part for gamblers is picking the right one. What I think everyone missed when doing their wonderful and useful power rankings was that the Vikings defense was stacked with talent this offseason. There was so much focus on one guy, Darnold, that it was like they hadn’t signed three Day 1 free agents for Flores. I thought from the start that it should have been more like 8.5 but here we are. That’s why this reporter does not bet on over-under totals or games. Can’t predict ball.
Robb…The more I think about the value of Aaron Jones this year and looking at next year when JJ takes the reins, would it be a good investment snag the best all-around running back in the draft to complement the backfield and provide a RB on a rookie deal with our new quarterback?
I can’t bring myself to think about next year’s draft this week. I’m sorry, I just can’t do it. Live in the moment, my friends. You have so rarely been able to do this.
Also, it’s almost never a good idea to spend a first-round pick on a RB.
Chris D… Who else thinks it’s weird that we’re back to Zimmer’s blueprint for success (before it got derailed by Spielman spending the family silver on Cousins)? League-leading defence keeps opposing teams to 16 or fewer points. Offence just needs to do enough. You don’t need to spend too much on a game-managing QB because you only really need 20 points from the offense to win every game. Genius
I get what you’re saying but in this case the head coach isn’t terrified of throwing the ball. I think we’ve seen pretty clearly the last few weeks that KOC isn’t trying to win 20-16 every week. I’m in the camp that a little dash of Zimmer’s mentality could help when this team is up 17 points but otherwise it’s a much more aggressive approach offensively. Also, every team is out there trying to build a No. 1 defense that will bail them out when the offense isn’t thriving — it’s not exactly a Zimmer trademarked idea. It just so happens that the Vikings have done it because they have cap space and a heck of an evaluator in Flores.
Gary A… Can you try to explain why the Vikings thought they could make it through the season with two RBs (Jones and Chandler) and one FB (Ham)? RBs get banged up on every run.
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