Friday Mailbag: Are we overreacting to Darnold's picks?
Diving into fan questions about turnovers and looking at the Vikings spot in the NFC race
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone! Who’s pumped for the Titans? Wheeeee.
Well, anyway, let’s see what’s on everybody’s mind this week…
Eldon… Can KOC right the Sam Darnold ship and how worried should we be about the JJ McCarthy injection?
I have nothing to lean on in terms of data or past history to tell you whether Darnold is going to get back into a groove but I can tell you that ups and downs are the nature of the NFL beast. Think about how many ups and downs happened with Kirk. I looked it up: During Kirk’s best season, 2019, he had an 88.6 QB rating in September and 88.3 in December. The two middle months were insane, especially that Kirk-tober month with a 137.1 rating where he averaged 315 yards per game.
Interestingly enough, the best month of Darnold’s career has been December. He has a winning record and 21 TD to 6 INT ratio. I tend to think that football wouldn’t be anywhere near as captivating if it didn’t have these ups and downs.
As far as McCarthy, all I can tell you is that everyone who is informed about such medical matters has said that it’s very unlikely that this is anything out of the ordinary. A writer for Zone Coverage who doubles in the medical field wrote a breakdown that’s worth looking at. I would put the concern level at 0.05 out of 10 and I don’t see any reason not to believe KOC when he says it doesn’t change anything with his recovery.*
*Everything is subject to change with any new or different information that may come about.
Brad L….Is it too early to start thinking about resigning potential free agents? If not, who should be our top targets?
Yes, it is too early because the current team is one of the 5-7 best in the entire league and I really like talking about actual relevant football games and not always playing armchair GM. Not to mention that a lot of pending UFAs sign with their own team.
HOWEVER… since it’s the Titans this week, I’ll grant you an exception.
I’m looking at guys like BJ Hill, Adam Butler and Osa Odighizuwa on the inside.
Top target at corner is DJ Reed. There are others like Asante Samuel Jr., or Nate Hobbs or Eric Stokes but Reed is a monster. I’m also thinking there’s a good chance Byron Murphy Jr. gets extended.
Obviously guard as well. Trey Smith, Brandon Scherff, Zack Martin, Will Hernandez, Teven Jenkins… there’s options.
Thomas S… I know you’re not a doctor but what does your gut tell you regarding the news of another procedure done on JJ’s knee?
My gut tells me that every recovery has some things that need to be done or bumps in the road and that it sounds pretty standard. I know that Vikings fans are really sensitive to anything involving the knee.
Kyle S…How many games will the Lions win? Can the Vikings afford any stumbles and still catch them?
The Lions do have some tough games against the Packers, Bills, 49ers and Vikings on the way. I think they end up with 13 wins. So the Vikings can’t stumble and still get there. It would be something if they were battling for the north in Week 18. I’m thinking the Vikings go 5-3 the rest of the way and get 12.
Griffin… How have the 2024 Vikings faired on grass vs turf this year? I'm still scarred from years ago, so when I see the game is at the Titans I think "crap they might get upset it's on grass."
One thing I noticed during the Zimmer era was that they got way fewer sacks on grass. That might have been because they always played Rodgers or it might have been them being away from US Bank Stadium and not having the noise advantage.
Lucky for you and I, Griffin, the internet has the Vikings stats on grass. Since 2014, they are 29-28-1. The biggest upsets vs. the spread that they suffered during that time were 2019 vs. KC when Matt Moore started, Chicago 2016 (the Zimmer eye game), the 2016 game in Philly, the NFC Championship, the 2017 loss to the Panthers and the 2019 Diggs truth-to-all rumors game.
Wow, that is actually a lot of memorable stuff happening on grass. You’re right!
However, they’ve covered or pushed 34 times and not covered 24 times, which is pretty similar to their overall win percentage over the last 10 years.
Pickle Enjoyer…Share your recipe for wings
You think I can cook? My win recipe is to go back to Buffalo and order them from someone who knows what they’re doing.
Geoff…Do you think Sam Darnold is pretty locked into "big enough free agent signing to get the Vikings a 3rd round compensatory pick," or could further decline in his play result in there not being any real market among other teams who want to sign him as a starter? (I'm skeptical of the Vikings ability to even win a playoff game this year, which I'm cool with, so time to look forward!)
How the heck is it time to look forward when the only team that’s better in the conference is the Lions and maybe the Eagles? It’s bat-bleep crazy to me how many fans seemed to quit on this team after the last few weeks. You wait all these years for a fun season where the metrics say they’re actually good (which they do right now) and it’s not some wacky mirage like 2022 and then they don’t beat the Jags by enough and you’re just done? I feel like a lot of you spent so many years during the Kirk era getting more and more cynical that you’ve forgotten how to enjoy a football season where your team is competitive.
Anyway, I don’t like talking about compensatory picks because they don’t just depend on who leaves but also who the team signs. If they let Darnold go but sign DJ Reed, zoinks, no big comp pick. The franchise tag and trade thing might be realistic. Or he might win the Super Bowl and they’re building a statue of him 10 years from now, who knows.
Steve C… The post-Jacksonville pod was a tough group PTSD therapy session. You've picked the schedule enough times, when are you going to pick the pod calendar? What the categories? Drunken revelry, Minnesota celly, Nervous Like a Kicker and PTSD Dumpster Fire?
I have no idea what these words mean.
If I had to guess how the rest of the season goes, there will be very little interest in the next two weeks if they win and absolute rage if they lose one of them, then a big win in December that gets people back into this team again and then a disappointing loss that makes everyone believe they can never win in the playoffs and then they’ll find out who the playoff matchup is and get really jacked because they’ll realize the NFC is not great and then… nobody knows after that.
Tony G… Why are most centers these days on the smaller side? It seems like a more recent trend. I will be covering my eyes whenever Jeff Simmons lines up opposite Bradbury. (As will KOC.)
It’s probably because centers have to be quick enough to reach block defensive tackles that are shading them and they have to get to the second level and take on linebackers. You can’t be slow and plodding and execute a lot of the run stuff in the NFL. Some of the all-time great centers were dudes big enough to play guard but fast enough to play center.
Last time Simmons played the Vikings (2020) he had 7 QB pressures and graded a 92.8 out of 100 by PFF. Yikes. The good news is the Vikings offense was still really good that day because of a fella wearing No. 18.
Skol Viking 44… What recourse, if any, does an NFL team have when they feel officiating crews are consistently missing calls week-to-week, like when their QB takes shots to the helmet or their star WR keeps getting mugged? Do they appeal to the League office? Slip the ref a sawbuck before the game and ask them to “keep it fair”?
Teams can submit calls to the league for review after the game. I honestly don’t know what they get back. Maybe a clarification or apology?
My thing with the refs is that it’s been quite frustrating this year to see hits to the head of the QB that should be called because those are legitimately dangerous. The one against the Colts is more insane than the Rams missed facemask because if the refs had called unnecessary roughness, then it could have been reviewed by replay assist and the refs instead chose to call something and pick up the flag, making it not reviewable. Why wouldn’t they just call it in a way that could be reviewed?
I also want the same dang rules called every week. When the ball hits the ground and moves around on an interception, it’s not an interception. We see that overturned all the time. And since when do they call the tackle for being lined up too far back without any warning?
These are things that shouldn’t be guessing games each week for the teams. It’s always been a problem in sports and it’ll never go away but it’s maddening.
Joe J… There’s been a lot of talk lately that maybe Sam Darnold and Jordan Addison aren’t on the same page therefore resulting in less production by JA compared to last year. However, this doesn’t fully consider that JA was WR1 for 7.5 games last year w/ JJ out. My rough calculations show JA this year is averaging just a tick lower targets and catches on average as last year when comparing only the full games JJ and JA played together. Couldn’t it just be that JJ is always the magnet for targets when he’s in there and it’s not really a JA-SD issue?
I’d say that you’re maybe not factoring that Hockenson hasn’t even played a full workload yet, so we would have expected Addison to pick up more of the slack than he did. Certainly Cousins threw more passes overall and the fact that he was WR1 for a chunk of the season influenced his total but he’s on pace to catch less than 50 passes, which is way under expectation. I don’t believe that’s just a matter of Jefferson being a target magnet.
It’s also a watch-the-tape thing. Addison is open a lot and Darnold hasn’t found him or hasn’t thrown accurately his way on a bunch of occasions. You can see why he would be frustrated (please, do not tell me again that Free 3 was his thing in college, I’m VERY aware).
I’ve noticed that Addison’s average depth of target and yards after catch numbers are different from last year. The completions are deeper, the YAC is less. It seems like hitting receivers on quick stuff just isn’t Darnold’s game the way that it was for Cousins. That’s something they have to increase as we go forward and Addison is a big part of it.
Bradley P…. What does the All 22 tape show? Has Sam been that careless/off the past few weeks or is no one getting open? To me it’s most concerning due to the amount of time he had to throw against the Jags.
It shows a little bit of everything. There are some plays where he’s great, some where he’s not seeing something (the near-pick to Hockenson or the Indy pick were both examples) or there’s inaccurate throws or he’s waiting to see someone flash open and then firing the ball in there. The first two picks were kinda bad breaks. On the first one Jefferson got grabbed at the line and the ball was tipped and then the second INT Darnold is thinking Jefferson will come back to him and instead he keeps going to Darnold’s left… just a miscommunication.
Here’s where we can use the PFF grades for a little levity. In the first four games, Darnold’s average grade was 69.1 and his last five games have been, weirdly, 69.1. The difference was that in Green Bay he had three Turnover-Worthy plays and only one was picked. Against Detroit and LA he averaged 9.6 yards per attempt but they lost so it felt like he didn’t play well enough. Against the Colts he completed 82% of his passes but the two bad picks made it seem like a bad game when he actually played really well.
I don’t think as much has changed about Darnold’s game from the first few weeks as it seems.
Florian K…I am so enjoying this season. Seriously this was just supposed to be a soft opening for the J.J. & Jets Show. Injuries suck but JJ will have more time around professional people. For Darnold this turns out his opportunity to rewrite his story. Even Vegas and their dark arts didn't see this. So everything is a bonus. Besides they're still missing IOL because they don't want to get JJ killed his first season playing. If you haven't yet find a copy of Jim Klobuchar's book "True Hearts and Purple Heads".
I generally agree with your sentiment but I want to point out that the Vikings are the 9th best pass blocking team in the league. That’s actually a reason to not play a rookie QB. This is a good line, folks. That’s how tough linemen have it these days with insane pass rushers and wild defensive coordinators dialing up crazy blitzes.
McCarthy is certainly getting a lot out of seeing how Darnold manages this. The league is hard, man. It’s so long, so exhausting and there’s so much drama even when you’re good. Darnold is a pro and a great role model for McCarthy.
Another point, overall, your viewpoint makes sense that this is all gravy. But I’m not quite looking at it that way. Once you go 5-0 with a veteran-heavy team, the bar is raised. There’s no going back. It’s not a cute story, it’s a team built to win. They spent like that this offseason, the owners set the bar at being competitive, go do it. If they fell apart, there’s no way I could say, “ope, it’s fine!”
Jon D…Imagine a scrappy 14-10 win. Do you think “3-0 run, count the Ws, no points for style” or “if you can’t deliver a convincing win against an AFC South team, how on earth are you beating Detroit/Bills/Chiefs in the playoffs” or somewhere in between.
I’m big on point differential being a good indicator of strength, so I’d be a hypocrite to say that winning ugly in each one of these weeks would be OK. Out of the last 20 teams to reach the Super Bowl, 16 have had at least a +100 point differential. The 10th best team had a +140. Through 9 games, the Vikings are on a good pace at +64. They have outgained opponents by 300 yards, which is also a good sign.
I’m really only thinking about the NFC when we talk about whether they can compete. If they get to the Super Bowl vs. Mahomes, we’ll talk about that then. When we compare them to the other NFC teams, the Eagles are looking strong but they had some bumps early. Washington is in a tough stretch. I don’t know what to think about Green Bay, Arizona, or San Fran and Tampa Bay and Atlanta are both very mid teams by point differential. That puts them right in the mix, whether it’s a convincing win or not but you’d rather see a Giants-like blowout to make their case stronger. Of course, it does have to be a win.
Evan…You’ve talked about how Sam Darnold doesn’t (can’t?) throw with anticipation - he has to see a guy be open to throw the ball. How can he both have to see a guy be open and throw so many bad interceptions to guys that aren’t open? Does he know he’s holding onto the ball too long and panic? Make it make sense, Matthew!
The way I think it works with some of these INTs is that he sits in the pocket and then sees a guy flash open and tries to let it loose and then things do not play out how he expected or he doesn’t put enough on the ball. I think anticipation throwers also have brilliant minds that can envision where all the defenders are without actually seeing them. It’s insanely hard to see on an NFL field, so guys like Kirk and Brees have to know where all 11 defenders are and then throw to spots because there’s no way they can throw it hard enough or see well enough to actually know the opportunity is there. It’s CRAZY hard to play NFL QB. Having been behind the QB at practice many times in camp, I have zero clue how anyone can know what’s going on downfield.
One thing you can do to really demonstrate is freeze the video when Darnold’s arm starts moving and look at the defense and then look again where it ends up. He can brilliantly lead a receiver to a spot when he is confidently throwing in rhythm but when he’s just snap reacting, that’s where the mistakes seem to happen. Check it down, dawg.
Think about this stat: James White and Kevin Faulk combined for 843 targets from Tom Brady in their careers. They scored 34 TDs and went for over 5,400 yards. How many of those were the first read on a play? Probably not that many. In 2016, he only threw 9.9% of passes as screens, yet White had 95 targets. The point is, it’s OK to throw to your checkdown option.
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