Friday Mailbag: Are trades coming or what?
Vikings fans are getting antsy for the team to make some decisions
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday everyone! Anything going on? Quiet times? No rumors or moves or anything in the NFL these days to talk about, right? Well, let’s see if we can find some questions from Vikings fans anyway…
@AbWhassup What’s the worst case scenario with Kirk (or the roster in general) If the Vikings completely screw it up what does it look like?
If they changed nothing and did the same stuff that Spielman did last year. Kept the quarterback, restructured contracts, signed cheap free agents etc. None of that is getting them closer to a Super Bowl.
@jasnyder123 What is the possibility that Kirk is not yet traded only because no one actually wants him at his current price along with what it would cost to keep him long-term (plus obvious assets to get him)? Is this a situation where Vikings are stuck with him for a year as is?
Mildly possible but think about it this way: The Colts, Steelers, Texans, Panthers, Saints and Seahawks could all use an upgrade at quarterback and all of them except the Texans feel like they have a good enough roster to be in the playoffs. Do they want to punt on a year by signing Ryan Fitzpatrick? Some of those folks are on the hot seat if they don’t win like Frank Reich and Matt Rhule. The Vikings are wise to let things play out and wait until a team misses out on their No. 1 target and comes calling. I’d guess that another potential holdup — if they want to do it — is that something has to be done to Cousins’ contract first unless he’s being sent to the Colts, who have the cap space to afford him right now.
@NorthStarsNHL Maybe this question will be obsolete later today or when your article comes out tomorrow, but why haven’t we seen anything significant happen yet with player movement while other teams have made big moves already this week? What’s the holdup?
If the Vikings are shopping veteran players for potential trades, they don’t have to be in a crazy hurry to make a deal (aside from needing to get under the cap). It was a few days into free agency that Stefon Diggs got traded so these things can happen at any time. The only move where they have a deadline is with Hunter because of his roster bonus hitting on the fifth day of the league year. The holdup is probably a few things…the team deciding as a whole front office what they want to do in the draft and free agency, talking with other teams about trade options, talking with agents about contract options. Lotta moving parts.
@MIvikesfan serious question I guess, How does Kirk's past history of not signing extensions/playing on franchise tag/betting on himself affect his trade value, assuming he'd refuse to do a sign-and-trade deal with any potential trading partner, which would end up making him a 1-yr rental?
It’s definitely a factor. If potential trade partners are aware that Cousins is planning to hit the free agent market and won’t sign an extension with them, it plays into how much they’ll be willing to give up in a deal. But his agent is a pretty wise dude, so he could work something out to extend his deal by one or two years and give his new team some flexibility while also stacking paper as usual. There are options but the contract issue makes it more complicated than trading somebody like Jimmy Garoppolo. I still think it makes sense on a lot of levels of a team like Pittsburgh to trade for him, lower the cap hit for one year and buy themselves time to find a long-term option.
@RealBHogenson Why is the Minnesota Twittersphere so obsessed with preserving an 8-9 roster that has a 9-8 ceiling?
There seems to be a real fear of being bad from some folks. I get it. Nobody wants to become the Jets and get stuck in a 10-year rut of awfulness. The middle-of-the-pack thing does result in some good times and fun. There have been tons of likeable players and memorable moments during the Vikings’ long run as a middling team. But the years that everyone cares about are the ones where they almost made the Super Bowl. That’s what the decision makers need to strive for, even if there’s risk that goes along with it. I’ve always felt like it’s more risky to be middling because at least when you’re bad, the NFL hands you great players at the top of the draft. And if it works, you become Cincinnati or Buffalo or Baltimore etc. and you’re good for a long, long time.
@SKOLkid90 In all honesty though I agree with your nostalgia take, just a hard pill to swallow lol. But between all major potential off loads (Thielen, Smith, Hunter, etc) which one would you have the hardest time with from a "nostalgia" standpoint?
Fans would have a tough time with all of them since they’ve been terrific players and are very much deserving of the loyalty they have in Minnesota. Hunter is the hardest one for the team to part with because he’s still fairly young. The possibility exists that he’ll get 50 more sacks. Having to move a guy because of unfortunate injuries and cap space is tougher than saying goodbye to a player who is in his 30s and his best days are behind him. From my perspective, I’ve had good experiences covering these guys. Thielen has always been very gracious with his time. Hunter came out of his shell with reporters as the years went by and that was nice to see.
@chrisvogel_92 With CB’s being a desperate need, would you be willing to trade up from 12 if it looks like Gardner and Stingley Jr won’t make it there, or would you rather hang back and take BPA
Trading up is rarely a good play, even though Gardner certainly helped his cause at the Combine and would be a good pick for them if they’re not going with a QB. If they can’t take the top CB, the best edge rusher available at No. 12 is guaranteed to be a very good prospect. They have so many needs that they almost can’t go wrong. If they trade Thielen, the receivers in that spot will be worth looking at too.
@MIvikesfan how soon until we can stop talking about f%#@ing Kirk Cousins?
That I don’t know. It might be two days from now or it might a year from now. The thing about the Cousins era is that as soon as it’s over, there won’t be much to reflect on. It isn’t like Daunte where there’s a “what could have been” element. So I don’t see us talking about it for years and years to come. Whenever it’s over, it’s over.
@skiyouMeeko Predict one bargain bin FA for the Vikings and your prediction must be right to save the world. Who is it?
Wow, this is pretty serious. I’ll go with Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, edge rusher from the Rams. Per PFF, he has 42 pressures in 298 pass rush snaps over the last two years. The Rams certainly gave him help with their other stars but those are good numbers for a situational rusher.
@headcoach21 What team do you think won’t trade for Cousins but they really should??
You guys are so good at coming up with new angles on this. The New York Giants. What is the point of carrying on with the Daniel Jones thing? They have good weapons and a coach who plays to his QB’s strengths, why screw around confirming what you already know, which is that Jones isn’t good enough. Also look at the NFC East. They can be right there in that division with a solid quarterback so long as the Eagles don’t land DeShaun Watson.
@SamRoot43 How about a pie chart of who starts at QB for Indy? That seems to be the biggest open question after this week's news cycle
I’ll go 40% Jimmy Garoppolo, 20% Kirk Cousins, 10% Marcus Mariota, 10% Jameis Winston, 10% Mitch Trubisky, 10% shocking trade for another QB.
@GeofftheJohnson Let's say the Vikings really do an extensive reset, thus unloading a bunch of vets one way or another. If out of Cousins, Cook, Thielen, Hunter, Smith, and Kendricks you could only keep one, who would it be and why, based in part on the idea that the other five are all gone?
My first thought is Kendricks. He’s a very hard player to replace with his coverage skills. Because he plays with instincts, I think he’ll age really well. He’s a epitome of a leader and someone that everyone respects and follows. Technically the right answer is probably Hunter. There are risks with his injury history and price tag but the upside is that he’s a totally dominant force. Thielen/Cook/Smith are all still good but they have age-related reasons to say you wouldn’t pick them out of the group.
@dixdickiemo When you buy an NFL team, what titles will Judd Zulgad and Courtney Cronin have in the organization?
Judd is the director of “don’t do that.” I mean this: Judd has incredible radar for when a team is about to screw up royally. He does it with every team in town. When you’re ready to take action, ask Judd. If he says “don’t do that,” we don’t do it. Courtney is Our Draft Scout, obviously. It’s not just a gag on the podcast, she legit has a sharp eye with young players.
@kyleshaner Robert Tate began his career with the Vikings as a receiver then switched to corner. Which current Viking would be most successful if asked to switch to the opposite side of the ball?
I’d love to talk to Robert Tate about that. Justin Jefferson would make an unbelievable safety. CJ Ham could play linebacker. I bet Ihmir Smith-Marsette could play corner. He is shifty and has fluid movement (FOOTBALL!). Anthony Barr would have made a good tight end.
@tadfundermann Based on the Wilson and Wentz trades how do you think the compensation expectations changed for Kwesi? Feels like the ask went up now. Also, if you had to say right now which team trades for Kirk (assuming it happens at all) who are you picking?
Those trades have to shape the expectations, for sure. It’s hard to know which direction his value went in their eyes though. I doubt they’re hoping for Wilson-type return but they might be happy with something similar to Wentz. My all-or-nothing bet would be Seattle. The 49ers aren’t trading Jimmy G within the division and Pete Carroll didn’t come back to trade Wilson with no plan. If they miss out on DeShaun Watson, Cousins is the next best thing.
@AlNotino If another team is really interested in trading for Kirk, are they right now negotiating with the Vikings on a trade package and negotiating with Kirk on an extension? Or would they have to take Kirk with his 1-year contract and try to talk him into an extension later?
The team acquiring Cousins has to know what they want out of getting him. Do they want a one-year stopgap? Do they want a 3-5 year quarterback? If they’re looking for the 3-5 guy, they’ll work with his side to have a contract extension ready as soon as he arrives with his new team. I believe Alex Smith’s deal came along with a new contract when he got to Washington.
@NevarezLuiz What do you think the actual best team for Kirk Cousins from just a football standpoint. The guy definitely wants the money, but I'm sure he doesn't want to go to a team that makes him look bad. That would hurt his future contact/contacts. Also I've heard he really just wants 2 yr deals. Does that hurt his tradeability™️?
It’s probably the Colts. They have a terrific offensive line, very good running back, receiver in Michael Pittman who can play and a defense with a good amount of talent. Cousins would only eat up half their available cap space, so they could still get him more to work with. I think Frank Reich is a quality coach too. Aside from that, Pittsburgh is an obvious answer. They made the playoffs with some of the worst QB play in the league last year. If New Orleans could work it out, that wouldn’t be a bad landing spot either with Michael Thomas coming back.
@HoopsMavenHM 1) Do you agree with those who consider you to be the Kirk Cousins of local commentators? 2) Once you've enriched yourself with Minnesota money from your gig, what is the first large expenditure you will make when you go back in Western NY? Fixing up the drive-in theatre?
You’re referring to a tweet that accused me of only covering the Vikings for money. I think of the worst attack somebody can come up with is “you work for money,” they don’t have much of an argument about the topic at hand. I’ve always felt that fans gravitate to my work because they want an unbiased meter to compare their own opinions against. Like an independent arbiter for takes and then we can talk about the differences. I enjoy that role. Most people want the truth. If somebody is telling you that the Vikings do everything right all the time A) how is that interesting? B) that doesn’t exactly pass the smell test because *points at Vikings history.* I do have a drive-in theatre in my hometown. Took the wife there for one of our first dates.
@Tannn_The_Man Since it’s bound to happen: What do you think of X player being traded/cut during your podcast? And how will they use the (insert asset) during the draft/free agency?
It’s amazing how often it happens that I’ve just recorded a podcast and it’s immediately blown up by Vikings news. I have attempted to do preemptive reactions before and that never works either. The most fun part of doing this is when I’m scrambling like a madman to write a reaction to big news, get a guest for the podcast, editing it, publishing it and then firing it out for everyone to listen.
@GeorgeLovell3 Hypothetical assuming they all stay healthy. Rank these vets who might be trade bait or cap cuts in terms of who you think the Vikings most need to keep, factoring in their cap hits: Hunter, Theilen, Cook, Smith, Barr.
Ranking from most likely to go to most likely to stay: Barr, Thielen, Smith, Cook, Hunter. Barr’s contract is up and I’d be surprised if they re-signed him. Thielen might want to go elsewhere and has a huge cap hit. Hunter is the least likely because there’s a good argument for extending him since he’s not that old and is still very, very good. Though I do think Cook would be hard to move if they wanted to trade him. Who’s acquiring expensive running backs these days?
@Nevertweets3 Would it not make some reasonable sense to draft a QB with your first pick of each draft (unless the only option in front of you is a huge reach) until you hit on one? Take one this year and if he’s not looking like a franchise QB then do it again
Absolutely. Every other position can be acquired in free agency or developed. If you have a QB on a rookie contract and you need pass rushers and corners, you sign them like Cincinnati did or you develop them from the second/third rounds like Tampa Bay did. The Bills rebuilt their offensive line by signing a ton of guys and having them fight it out in camp to see who fit best. At quarterback, you either have that guy or you stink or you’re in purgatory, so keep trying until you find him. That doesn’t mean tank every year, by the way. You can still have QBs that keep you competitive while still being on the lookout.
@co0pgoesVr00m I think Kirk is staying but two part question: If we keep Kirk and we don't trade away a bunch of defensive vets, who is the primary target in the draft? IF we start trading, is QB the first pick and if so, who would be the target?
It probably comes down to two positions if they stick with Cousins: Cornerback and pass rusher. That means guys like Sauce Gardner, Derek Stingley Jr., George Karlaftis, Trent McDuffie, Travon Walker, Jermaine Johnson and David Ojabo. If they do trade Cousins, I would guess they take a swing at a quarterback but I’m not entirely sure it’s with the No. 12 overall pick. They could trade down if somebody else takes Malik Willis or even wait until the second round as see which guy slips. That would be a little too much on the half-measure side for me but it’s possible.
@NicholasM_1993 Would you rather be the only team with no salary cap but draft 32nd every year, or have the cap but be guaranteed the 1st pick every year?
I’ll take the No. 1 pick every year. The Hall of Famers come from the top five and once you get one, you keep them forever. Yes you’d eventually run into some tough decisions with the cap but not all of them will be hits. Give me some spending restrictions and the best possible young talent every day of the week.
@youvikethat1 Are Vikings fans more loyal to their veterans or star players than other fan bases? Is it a MN nice thing? Is it because we fear being the Jets/Lions? I assume New England fans didn’t care as much when their Hall of Famers were shipped out when they got old.
A few layers to this. I don’t think fans here are tremendously more loyal to their players than other fan bases. Someone on Twitter brought up that Buffalo Bills fans once wanted to team to build around Ryan Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson because they loved them. Everyone gets attached to their players, that’s one of the reasons why everyone’s here watching sports, right? It’s just that Minnesota fans have been forced into a spot where they have to cling onto those players because it’s the best thing they have. Wolves fans loved Ricky Rubio. Seemed like a great guy but as a player, meh. Does anyone miss Rubio now that they have Anthony Edwards? Everyone’s over Suter-Parise now that the Wild are good, right? New England fans probably really liked Richard Seymour but when the Patriots traded him, they shrugged because they knew the deal: Belichick was always going to make the shrewd move to win. You can love players and support the team doing the right thing business wise.
@swnebel What’s the point of “running it back for one last season” with Cousins if you have to get rid of half the (already below average) team to get under the cap ?
Is this a “talk me into” question? The only point would be just to use Cousins as your bridge quarterback and then have freedom at the position after this year. Is that a better option than getting something in return for him, signing another bridge QB and being able to sign some decent free agents with the cap space it creates? No sir.
@eleysium Has O'Connell said anything about Mond yet?
He hasn’t. Mond played one series all year so KOC hasn’t seen him. I don’t mean to seem insulting at all but there’s no reason to talk about Mond at this point. Until proven otherwise, he’s not in the conversation for this team’s future quarterback. He’s fine to keep as a backup on his rookie deal.
@valhalla_king_ Maximum return for Thielen and Cook in your estimation? Possible destinations?
Hmmm. That’s a tough one. A lotta people would be unhappy if they were only able to get third-round picks for these guys but that might be the max. It’s tough to get second-round picks out of teams, especially in a draft that’s considered deep.
@Tsviking Jefferson will become the highest paid WR by 23-24, earning near-QB level money. He deserves it. You want to move on from Hunter because that's too much invested in one player. Both are generational players. Is WR that much more valuable than a DE or injury history?
I like Hunter but he isn’t a generational player. The injury history and age are no small thing here. Jefferson from age 24-30 is about the safest projection you’ll ever make. Hunter age 28-33 is much, much more difficult. There are DEs who have continued to play at a high level into their early 30s but there are lots who have fallen off. There’s simply far more risk involved with one than the other. I’d also say it’s easier to manufacture pass rush or find pass rushers in free agency than it is another Jefferson.
@ATKing53632390 How many All-Pros have the Vikings had over the past 4 seasons? Who are we dearly afraid of losing??
I believe Harrison Smith in 2017 and Eric Kendricks in 2019 were the only two first-team All-Pros. They shouldn’t be dearly afraid of losing anyone. Everything when it comes to these decisions is about cap vs. production and projecting the future. Adam Thielen is set to make $17 million on the cap and he averages 57 catches per season over the last three years. He’s still a very good player but you can’t reasonably project production that’s going to justify that cap hit or whatever price they’d pay later to lower it. Dalvin Cook is coming off his worst PFF graded year and another season where he was banged up. Again, still a really good player, but worth being the fifth highest cap hit RB in the league on a team that has many needs? I’m not sure about that. I get the attachment but if Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is good at identifying talent and makes smart moves, these won’t be the last good players who ever put on purple.
@dcaron28 the defense is almost a complete strip down and rebuild....would you use most of the draft on that or double down on the offense and try to win games 45-42 next year?
As far as the draft, this team needs to just pick the best prospects at the most valuable positions that are available. Edge rushers and corners are at the top of the list but they could take pretty much any position on the field and it would be a good idea outside of offensive tackle. Even receiver makes sense with Thielen’s situation.
@tua76466_g %chance Kirk gets extended? Please say low. Thank you in advance, Matthew.
I don’t think it’s very high. Maybe 25% and that would be only in the case that they want to lower his cap hit for a year and still prepare to potentially move on later. An extension just doesn’t make a ton of sense considering where they’re at as a franchise.
@TheWizardofWasz You went over the Vikings with the highest RAS scores to make a pro bowl. My question is, who are the Vikings with the lowest RAS scores to make a pro bowl?
Here’s the link if anybody wants to play around with the Relative Athletic Scores for draft prospects. The lowest scores (or least athletic) by Vikings players to make a Pro Bowl since 1987 are: Henry Thomas, Ed McDaniel, Matt Birk, Brad Johnson and Dalvin Cook.
Not surprisingly, only the first three were under the 50th percentile of all athletes to work out at the NFL Combine. As much as we make fun of it, those results are often telling about whether someone meets the baseline to be an NFL player.
@AlwazeCash The PFF guys have mentioned the Rams have had outlier injury “luck” and are speculating that they might be doing something special to avoid injuries. Do you think moving on from Eric Sugarman signals the intention to bring the same thing to MN?
Yeah, the Vikings hired Tyler Williams to be their executive director of player performance. He worked for the Rams for many years. Moving on from Sugarman was about getting people who have the same vision for the sports science side as O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah. That’s why I was saying in my column the other day that it makes sense.
@chrisvogel_92 Are you happy with the trade package the Vikings received for Cousins 10 minutes after you publish this?
I’ve spent a few hours answering these Cousins questions, so I’m definitely assuming it’s happening the minute I’m done.
@orangesuds Thanks for the content! Using a scale of 1-10 neckrolls, please rate the likelihood Colin Kaepernick gets a look from the new front office.
I’d be surprised. Maybe a 2? I do feel like football fans have proven that they’re comfortable with players speaking their minds (ratings didn’t go down, stands were still full). But the NFL settled Kaepernick’s collusion lawsuit a few years ago and I can’t imagine many of the owners are going to approve their team signing him when there’s animosity between them and Kaep.
@PaulEasterberg1 Unless for some bizarre reason they decide to extend Kirk, isn't this just math? Either Kirk goes or a bunch of other guys go so they can afford Kirks salary?
Pretty much, yeah. If they extended Cousins, they could lower his cap hit significantly for 2022 but it doesn’t solve the problem down the road. What sense would it make to do the same thing the last regime did?
@W99Jay Please explain how you seem ok letting Hunter walk when he’s only 27 and you have said good pass rushers are good for 10+ years - that’s a building block right? RE: injury, the neck wasn’t a recurring issue, a torn pec is not indicative of anything chronic.
It’s really about the price tag and risks. I understand that some folks have said that a torn pec isn’t a huge deal and the neck wasn’t a problem last year but these things take their toll over the long haul and the top rushers are now making $20 million-plus. It’s hard to make that math work on a team that’s going to be really ready to compete two years from now. If they do work something out with him, however, I won’t think it’s a crazy thing to do.
@bktoocool Is Kirk Cousins an Indianapolis Colt?
Maybe. It makes sense on a lotta levels, right? If they don’t land Jimmy G, what are they going to do?
@dreski83 Starting to wonder if anyone has received even the smallest of response from Cousins during this busy offseason... it's clear he will provide nothing, but can we at least get some "no comment" replies...
You mean as far as him saying anything about what’s going on? I’m guessing he’s waiting to find out what’s happening just as much as everyone else. I do think if he desperately wanted to be part of this thing long term, we would have heard more from him this offseason.
@KAAAAAHN_tk421 If you could cover any fictional football team, which one would it be?
The Replacements would have been a goldmine for stories. I love writing about players that aren’t always the star but they have something really interesting about them. Maybe Keanu would have let me go snorkeling with him for an article.
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