Friday Mailbag: Are they for real?
Vikings fans want to know if they should get jacked or brace themselves
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday everyone! This week’s mailbag features all the classic emotions that Vikings fans endure when their team is playing this well, so let’s dive right into it….
John…. When do the wilf’s revisit extensions for KOC and KAM?
I’m assuming that will happen after the season. I suppose they could do it at the bye week if they wanted but there’s no issue with letting it play out through the rest of the season. It’s very clear that they should move forward with this leadership, the only real question is how long they are going to do the extensions for. After four weeks, everyone is ready to sign up for the next decade but it’s OK if they want to see where things stand at the end of the season.
Rob…. I’ll be the first to say I thought the Vikings would be 2-3 at the bye week. Which team after the bye will the Vikings not match up well with due to scheme or personnel?
There isn’t a team right now that looks like a nightmare matchup for the Vikings because they are such a complete team but if we’re talking about the toughest games, I think it’s going to be tough to play the Lions and then fly out to L.A. and play the Rams four days later. Seattle would be my other pick. They have a really good passing game that will make for quite a matchup for the defensive backs but that’s a long ways down the road. Outside of that, Solider Field always creates pretty sloppy games and the Packers and Lions to end the season should be intense. It’s an easier schedule in the second half but not a walk in the park exactly.
Bob G… Who wins?
I’m going with a 20-17 Vikings win. It feels like the type of game that ends up being low scoring. The Jets really need this so they’re going to throw everything they have at the Vikings.
Kyle S…. If you were given $1,000 to bet on this season’s NFL MVP, how much would you put on Sam Darnold?
Maybe like $75. There’s such a long way to go and many candidates that could win it. Since it’s a quarterback award, you could see probably 10 different guys with a decent chance right now. Josh Allen should be the favorite because they can win 12 or 13 games without a true top wide receiver and he’s the best QB in the league without an MVP. But you could see Burrow bringing the Bengals back or Stroud going crazy in the second half. Remember that it wasn’t even until Week 9 that Jordan Love started to play well last year. The MVP race doesn’t get real until maybe Week 12.
Chuck A… Obviously the start to the season has the "re-sign Sam Darnold?!?" discourse going, but it seems to me there's a different 1 year signing who re-signing is an interesting question: Aaron Jones. It's obviously early, but through four weeks-would you give him a 2-3 year deal?
If he plays for the entire season the same way he’s played so far then it will be a no-brainer but they need to make sure that he’s paired with another running back who they trust because so far the snap count difference is 157 for Jones and 69 for Chandler. I’d like to see more of Chandler as the season goes along but at this point it seems like they’re going to roll out Jones in all the biggest spots. That’s also a concern for the future. If he runs the ball 200 times and catches 70 passes, that’s a huge workload and seems to be asking for regression the following season. Also the price is relevant too. But he is a championship type player that would be good to have as long as it makes sense.
Bradley P… Does the interior of the offensive line deserve credit for how they’ve played or is it more of a byproduct of Darnold not being a stationary old man?
Considering Bradbury is 30th in pass blocking grade out of 32 and Ingram 61st of 62 guards, I’m going to distribute the credit largely to KOC and Darnold. I see the play designs doing a lot to make sure that the interior doesn’t crush them, whether it’s with play-actions or giving help inside from CJ Ham or Aaron Jones chipping defensive tackles. It should still be a pretty big concern though.
Dave… When we looked at the schedule at the beginning of the season, it was hard to identify when the Vikings would be favored to win after the Giants game. Which games do you think they will not be the favorite for the remainder of the season?
That really depends on what happens next. If they lose to the Jets then I could see the Lions being favored in Minnesota. If they lose two games in a row and the Rams get hot, maybe L.A. gets the nod because they are at home. They would have to be really good by the time they face Seattle on the road to be favorites. It’s hard to predict because it’s a moving target. If things keep rolling then they might not be an underdog the rest of the way.
Bradley P… Can you think of another example of a team with 13 wins letting their veterans go and having a top 15 quarterback and just deciding he’s too expensive and letting him go?
Teams are always building, tearing down, rebuilding and then doing it all over again but this is pretty unusual. Normally the path to 13-win seasons is drafting a good QB and then building a freakish roster around that guy. It’s not quite similar because the 2017 Eagles played most of the season with Carson Wentz but that team had a ton of free agents like Alshon Jeffery, Torrey Smith, LeGarrett Blount, Ron Darby, Patrick Robinson, Chris Long etc. and all of them stepped up and played extremely well down the stretch when they went to Foles.
San Francisco has essentially done the same thing moving on from Jimmy G and building around Purdy (even if they thought it was going to be Lance). They went outside the building to get McCaffrey, Williams, Hargrove… somehow Randy Gregory and Chase Young ended up there last year.
Michael H… I know they likely don’t have the draft capital to do it, and frankly they don’t actually NEED him…but how much fun would it be if the Vikings traded for Davante Adams and just went all in for this year? I mean, at the very least we’d get another “Three Deep” poster to put on the wall…
I’m absolutely the person who thinks you can never have too many great receiving options but I’m not sure how that would even work with JJ, Addison, Hockenson and Adams. In this case, “there’s only one football,” is true. The dynamic they have right now is pretty darn effective. If someone got hurt then it might change my mind. Also, are we sure that Adams is going to stay healthy? I know the hamstring thing is quiet quitting but he’s not really young anymore. If they are going to give away draft capital for something, I’m thinking along the lines of a defensive tackle who can get after the passer or a difference-making guard or a young-ish corner who they could keep for multiple years.
Jason… If you are the opposing offense, how do you exploit the Vikings defense the way the Packers appeared to last week in the second half?
Last week was a pretty weird deal because the Vikings’ defense got worn down so much in the second half with the turnovers and three-and-outs, I’m not sure that Green Bay discovered some special weakness so much as Jordan Love was just throwing the ball up left and right and some of them hit for big plays and they took advantage of the Vikings giving them the ball twice right at the goal line.
If I was plotting against this defense, I’m doing everything I can to get to second down with less than six yards to go. Keep them honest with run-pass situations because Flores will absolutely throw a wild blitz on second-and-10. Any time the opposing QB gets in a spot where he has to throw, it can be a potential nightmare. I’d try to test their edges against the run and get some drives moving on short throws to the tight end and underneath receivers. Try to catch them in a blitz with a RB sneaking out of the backfield and see if they can play a grind-it-out type of game.
That said, there’s no one-size-fits-all answer to a defense with this much talent and this DC.
Tim… What is the compensation package for the Vikings giving up a home game? Seems like a rip for the season ticket holders, concessionaires and the city. I only care about the season ticket holders, curious.
I’ll be honest, I don’t know how any of that works. I’m sure they have agreements with the teams but I haven’t seen any explainer on how the revenue is distributed or how it changes ticketing for season ticket holders.
Andrew M…. Jordan Addison is set to be arraigned in California on Monday for his DUI arrest over the summer. From the statements he made post-arrest, it appears like he won’t challenge the charges. Without a lengthy trial, would it be reasonable to assume the league may levy his suspension as soon as Week 6 against the Lions, or do they tend to take their time with these sort of suspensions?
The last time a player had a similar situation was New Orleans receiver Deonte Harris. He got arrested in July, the case was resolved in November and he started his suspension in December after appealing with the league. Maybe it will take longer than that if they do something to drag it out in court or maybe he won’t appeal with the league so the suspension kicks in sooner. Sometimes it also feels like the NFL doesn’t have any real locked in timeline for this stuff and it ends up taking longer than expected. I’m really not sure exactly how it’s going to go. If I was betting right now, I’d think a 3-game suspension sometime between mid-November early December would make sense.
Ben… Do you think the Jets game is prime letdown game for the Vikings or do you think Salah and Rodgers friction will be a significant advantage for the Vikings?? That cadence talk last week was kinda strange
The whole vibe to the Jets is extremely weird. Rodgers doesn’t seem to trust anyone that wasn’t with him in Green Bay and the rest of the team. It’s like The Office when the Samford people tried to move to Scranton and they didn’t fit in. Rodgers has his way of doing things and his offensive coordinator. In theory that’s great but in practice it doesn’t look all that comfortable.
To your question, I’m thinking the Vikings have to be locked in here. When a team is backed into a corner knowing that they really have to win this game or the whole entire Rodgers experiment could fly off the rails quickly if they lose, that makes them dangerous. They are going to be throwing everything they have at the Vikings to get a win. At the same time, if the Vikings set the tone early in the game and get Rodgers flustered, they can get the Jets pointing fingers by the second quarter.
Ramsey K… 1) who wins the game? 2) do you think of this team as enough of a SB contender that you'd do something crazy (like trading a r1 and change for Dexter Lawrence?) or would you keep things simple for this year and really go big next year with JJM? 3) which game are you looking forward to most for the rest of the regular season? It can be for travel, matchup, etc.
Going Vikings to win (and glad you guys are asking about the games and not next year’s draft!). If they win two out of the next three games and are sitting at 6-1 approaching the deadline, they have to start shopping. All the metrics are pointing toward this team being very much legit right now and if they can go 2-for-3 against the Jets, Lions, Rams and then enter the lighter part of the schedule with an opportunity to fight for the best record in the conference, it’s worth giving up whatever it takes to get more talent here. The NFL only gives you so many chances at a Super Bowl, swing big when you get them.
I also don’t think that a needle-moving move has to mean that they’d be sacrificing JJ’s future. If they traded for someone like Calais Campbell then it wouldn’t cost too much or if they got a star player who they could re-sign a la Hockenson like Asante Samuel Jr. then that player could contribute toward the future in a more predictable way than a draft pick.
Where it’s a little more dicey but also… I can’t help myself… is if you were talking about someone like Khalil Mack or Brandon Scherff. It’s not exactly ideal but it would be baller.
Kip N… Matt I’m struggling here because I see 4-0 and they beat good teams but also as a Vikings fan, I’m waiting for the “shoe to drop” moment. When do you see that happening because the schedule appears to be “lighten” up but that opens the door for trap games So what’s the final prediction for record and how far could they go? WC? Divisional? Championship? I just don’t see SB team like I can with SF, GB but who they beat already
I’ve seen this go both ways, Kip. In 2016, I thought they’d be a top NFC team the way that Bradford was playing through the first five games and in 2017 I thought Case Keenum could never take them anywhere. Wrong and wrong again. I will tell you that “trap games” have been studied and there is no magical effect of winning teams playing vs. bad teams, it’s really only that the losses are memorable and the wins are forgettable.
Another thing I can tell you is that analytics folks have tried to identify which part of the schedule is the most predictive for where a team will go in the playoffs — which set of games tells us the most about a team’s strength. It’s usually the middle. So off we go.
One other thing, I understand that the shoe has always dropped but if you forget to enjoy things in the moment because you’re worried too much when it’s going to go wrong then you’re going to really miss out on how fun it can be when a team is actually good. For now, drink it in, my friend. If it goes sideways, well, that’s life.
Dan… Can this team cover enough to be a good defense on a day when they're not generating so many sacks and turnovers?
That’s a good question. What’s difficult to figure out in the statistics is that Green Bay hit on big plays in the second half and picked up a bunch of yards that ultimately were just garbage time stats. The numbers that attempt to remove garbage time like DVOA have the Vikings at the top. In terms of yards per pass attempt allowed they are 10th and fourth in yards per rush. PFF’s defensive grades have them 2nd vs. the run and 7th in coverage. So if we’re trying to use some of the sustainability numbers that take out volatile splash plays, they still look pretty good considering the competition.
Sacks and turnovers also aren’t completely random. Flores’ 2020 defense ranked No. 1 in takeaways and then 8th the following year. They were 11th and 6th in the two seasons in sacks too. I’m thinking with the dudes they have that there should be more on the way, maybe just not at this rate.
Eldon… So Darnold has been really good through 4 games, is it possible that Sam Darnold could become the new Ryan Fitzpatrick? A guy who can light it up and make it fun but every now and then you get a 4 pick nightmare game
Nobody really knows what Darnold is going to be but I really like your idea of trying to find comps for the ranges of outcomes.
— If he turns out to be a franchise QB, then he’s Matthew Stafford. Still flawed but the cannon is so amazing that he can win a lot of games.
— If he turns out to be pretty good but a roller coaster, he’s Kerry Collins or Jeff George. Could win a ton of games if things are really right or lose a ton of games if they’re wrong.
— If he is fun as heck but turns out to be too turnover prone to really lead a team deep into the playoffs, he’s FitzMagic or maybe Jay Cutler.
— If he’s just a dude who has mini flashes of amazing play throwing downfield but is mostly not very good, he’s Jameis Winston
— If this is his one unbelievable year and it’s a magic carpet ride to the Super Bowl, he’s Mark Rypien.
Al N… What did the Vikings look like in 2016 when they started 5-0? Did they look as good as they have this year? I remember, sadly, going to the Eagles game and watching them lose their first game of the year and it didn't really feel close. They lost 6 of 7 to fall to 6-6 and ended up 8-8. I feel that can't happen this year but maybe I'm kidding myself.
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