Friday Mailbag: Answers are coming soon

Vikings fans want to know what's going to happen with a Cousins extension, Za'Darius Smith's future and much more...

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone. I hope you’re prepared for the next week-plus because it could get wild. By the time you’re reading this, something crazy might have already happened. The Friday news dump is a real thing. But until we know what’s next, we can speculate… let’s get right into it…

@Conorm511 I’m really curious of the timing of a Jefferson extension in relation to a decision on a Kirk

Jefferson can wait and see how the offseason plays out before he makes a decision. There’s no pressure on his side to sign anything until he’s ready and oftentimes those deals come right before training camp or early in camp anyway. The team has to work under the assumption that JJ is going to be making $30-$35 million per season in the near future so I don’t think it really impacts a decision on Cousins so much as it affects their options with Cousins on the length of a deal. Even if they wanted to sign him to a four-year deal, how could they do that with JJ set to make that much in the near future? But I think after the Geno Smith and Derek Carr deals, everyone knows how this could work for a two-year extension if they want… it just depends on if they want it or not.

@EthanShutt Is Justin Jefferson the only reason this front office can’t/won’t consider tanking/truly rebuilding?

It is a pretty good reason. It’s not like the situations with the Lions and Bears in recent years where they had nothing to lose. The Vikings have the most valuable non-QB player in the NFL to lose if he thinks they’re going to be bad for years to come. It isn’t just him though. Christian Darrisaw is pretty darn important too. It’s also not easy to tell your employer after a 13-win season that it’s time to dump it all down the drain and start over, no matter how difficult the cap/draft capital situation might be. But I’ve never thought they needed to tank. If they handle this offseason in a way that remains competitive but A) doesn’t hurt the cap for 2024 B) gets a lot of unproven players opportunities C) puts them in a decent position to draft a QB in 2024, then they can make progress toward being a Super Bowl contender without having to completely go to the bottom.

@headcoach21 What’s with the lack of interest for Lamar?? It’s odd that the teams that don’t have interest also have NO viable starter at QB

Odd is definitely a way to put it. I wouldn’t completely count out that plenty of teams are interested in Lamar and will eventually put in offers for him but the fact that teams immediately leaked that they wouldn’t be chasing him makes it look like they are trying to drive the QB market back down after the DeShaun Watson megadeal last offseason. It wouldn’t be surprising if every team pretty much not-so-subtly agreed that they’re not going to let every QB in the future demand Watson’s guarantees and this is a way to do it. Which is collusion but hard to prove. If Lamar had a super agent then would be a lot harder because teams need relationships with the Drew Rosenhaus types but since he represents himself he doesn’t have a lot of leverage.

@GriffRobMike Lamar Jackson please? He’s only 26. I like Kirk and he had a nice year, but we’ve seen how far he can take this team and he has 1 year left. That shouldn’t be the obstacle. Vikings 1st round picks are never pick top 10 anyways

Affording Lamar Jackson and Justin Jefferson on top-of-market deals would be pretty restrictive to what they can do with the rest of the roster and there is a legitimate injury risk with Jackson. But, honestly, you only live once so if they have a chance to do it they should just do it. It might be the closest you’d ever get to recreating Moss and Culpepper and that was a pretty darn fun era of football.

Tige… assuming this is the end of Thielen with the Vikings, how much did his value of finding a pro bowler without having to use a high pick actually help the Vikings over the years?

Certainly when you can find a superstar without spending a draft pick on them it’s like hitting the lottery. One way to look at it might be through the lens of surplus value. Because UDFAs get paid so little on their initial contracts and then become restricted free agents his production vs. cap hit gap was absolutely nuts until he signed his big contract in 2019 (and even then the way his deal was structured was fairly advantageous until recently). He went for 967 yards in 2016 with a cap hit of $600,000, 1,276 yards for $3.7 million in 2017 and 1,373 yards for $6.1 million in 2018. Those three years were actually worth probably $15-$20 million per year based on the top receivers in the league at the time. Insane surplus value.

@alexjjlarsen How do teams weigh the value of personalities in the locker room/on the field relative to salaries and production? (e.g., EK was expensive and fading, yet seemed to be truly respected/admired)

It’s definitely important. There are tangible impacts to players with personalities like his. They make everyone better around them, whether it’s by helping others understand the game/playbook better, setting an example of how every young player should act as a professional, inspiring others to be the best versions of themselves etc. And then it’s very meaningful to an organization to have a player who’s going to impact the community in such a positive way and be the Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee. Some fans may only care about W’s — and that’s fair — but I assure you the Wilfs care deeply about how the franchise is perceived locally and nationally and Eric Kendricks represented them with the utmost class. Are those things going to add millions and millions to his salary? Probably not. But they’re baked into wanting to keep him for as long as they could. We just got to the end of the road with age/price.

@tua76466_g Is it likely that Vikings may hold off on Kirk discussions until after the draft? I.e., see if they can snag a qb and if not go to the table. Also, do we know what KOC’s prototype qb is? Is it more Levis as opposed to Richardson?

I don’t want to say for certain that the train leaves the station once they get past free agency because we have seen things get worked out later into the summer but it feels like the next week or two will decide which direction this thing is going to go. They need to have an answer now so they can plan for what happens if they can/can’t get a QB in the draft. If they’re going into the draft saying, “Well, if we don’t get one on draft night, we’ll just extend Kirk,” that wouldn’t be great process…nor would Cousins feel very appreciated and want to sign an extension. I do think Levis fits a Matthew Stafford prototype and makes more sense for what KOC currently does than Richardson but good offensive minds are malleable.

@kyleshaner Will the Vikings’ premier free agent addition this offseason be a defensive tackle again? And if Dalvin Tomlinson resigning is the biggest move, what would that say about the Vikings?

It really depends on where these things fit into the bigger picture. If they keep most of the current parts and pay Tomlinson a big contract that includes a low cap hit in 2023 and bigger cap hits in the future with void years, I guess that’s going to tell us that they’re using most of the same tactics that they have been during the whole win-now era of 2016-present. That said, they probably aren’t planning any kind of mega rebuild and they might see someone like Tomlinson as a guy they would really like to have for many years to come so signing him wouldn’t have to destroy the rebuild-y things they need to do.

@DuellmanDPT Lose Kirk, Ride out with Teddy Bridgewater, and draft top QB in top half of first (assuming trades to make it work). I don’t hate Kirk but let’s go SB or bust next.

Philosophically speaking, it works on a lot of levels. There’s also a lot of pitfalls there. What if they can’t get their hands on a first-round draft pick QB? How will they know if they can make that happen before draft night? How is Jefferson going to feel about the team blatantly trying to take a step back by doing that? I’m not disagreeing with your plan because it might be the best way to aim for the ring someday but there’s a lot more that goes into these decisions. If they did something like this, I’d respect it. Similar to Lamar, most of the time in the NFL it takes going for broke in order to win big.

@alangergen Kirk fans: Kirk is a top QB and deserves $40M/year. Also Kirk fans: No one is going to give up a 1st or 2nd round pick for him. So which is it?

I try not to use social media as a representation of how people actually feel about things because it seems like it’s always the most extreme opinions. If I had to guess the majority of people who were big Cousins believers are pretty understanding of where things are at right now. Age, price tag and the state of the roster are things that go beyond the debates about how good he is at football. I also think both of those things can be true. He is a top-15 QB and those guys are getting between $35-$40 million and with his age/contract but with the need for a new deal it’s hard to see anyone trading a first or second-round pick for him. That’s why this spot isn’t easy for the Vikings if they want to keep him as their QB for any period of time past this year.

@Aaspecht Should the Vikings prioritize during free agency. 1). Beef up offensive line. 2). Add another stud WR like Hopkins. 3). Add a stud CB like Ramsey.

1)They are going to have to do something about the center position. I don’t have a good feel for whether Garrett Bradbury is going to return or not but he will probably have some sizeable offers after playing well this year. Outside of center, I can’t see them touching any of the other positions on the OL. 2) If they’re going to get another receiver, it has to be through the draft. I don’t see any amount of cuts that would result in having enough cap space to afford someone like Hopkins. 3) Same goes. They can draft these positions but it would be shocking if they made some type of trade that acquired a big star who’s on the trade block because they don’t have the cap space or assets to pull it off. Maybe they’ll prove that theory wrong, I guess we’ll find out soon.

@kyleshaner With the reports that the Vikings don't plan to honor Za'Darius Smith's request for his release, is that because they want to keep him or because they think he has trade value?

Hard to say for sure. If you’re Brian Flores and you want to improve the defense, that task doesn’t get easier if you release one of the best 3-4 OLBs in the NFL. But the messaging could also be intentional to see if there’s any offers out there. I could buy it either way. It always seems like once the cat is out of the bag with somebody wanting out, they end up getting out. Smith might feel like he has one more big contract coming after the way he played and wants to get back on the open market. If the only way to resolve the disagreement is to give Smith more security in his contract, it’s better to just move on and start looking at edge rushers in the draft.