Friday mailbag: All the Cousins scenarios

Now that the Vikings have a head coach, it's on to the next big decision at QB

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday everyone! Well, you’ve got yourself a new head coach and some fresh things to consider with Kevin O’Connell, so let’s get right into it…

@mikekerrane How much leverage does Cousins have over a trade destination/one happening at all? It seems like a lot, since anyone trading for him would presumably want to extend him. He could throw a wrench in things by signaling he wouldn’t extend with team X

Yeah, there’s two ways it could go down if the Vikings trade Cousins: A) They eat some of his salary cap hit in order to make it more feasible for the team that’s acquiring him B) They trade him to a team that has already worked out an extension with his agent. I think option A is more plausible, especially with reporting that Cousins may want to hit free agency again. But if the right deal should come along, option B is possible. Alex Smith did an extension with Washington as part of that deal with Kansas City.

@BIG_dannn Let’s say in a perfect world Vikings get SOME manageable cap space. After doing some research on this new defense I feel CB is the most valuable position..would you rather the Vikings draft for the secondary needs or get solid vets through FA.or is another position of more value?

They need pass rushers and cornerbacks. There’s really no defense in the NFL that can be good without pass rushers and cornerbacks. The argument to draft a rusher rather than a CB is that defensive backs can be more volatile and they tend to get banged up a lot. If you draft a great edge rusher, their pressure rates are generally consistent from year to year and they can be good for a long time. It needs to be a combination of free agency, top draft picks and development in both areas to build a good defense. One thing I’m sure about: Bottom of the barrel free agents might work for depth but it doesn’t work for an entire secondary.

@jasnyder123 Who calls plays for the Vikings on offense this year?

O’Connell said in his opening press conference that he’s going to do it. Many of the offensive coaches around the league call the offensive plays. One thing you worry about a little is game management. Really though, play calling is a group effort. In the week of a game, the entire staff puts together the plays they’re going to use in every situation and then the play caller dials them up. It isn’t like Madden where you’re selecting whatever you feel like doing. Or in my case, running the same play every time.

@KyeBaxter questions on Irv Smith! 1, any idea how his rehab is progressing? 2, any idea how the tight end fits into the presumed scheme KOC is bringing with him?

I haven’t checked in on his Instagram or anything to see if there’s clips of him working out but my understanding of his injury was that it shouldn’t be any sort of super long-term thing. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see him in OTAs. A versatile, pass-catching tight end fits in every offensive scheme. The fact that he can go downfield and line up in the slot gives O’Connell more ways to use him. I don’t think O’Connell’s scheme is going to be vastly different from what we have seen recently. The base of McVay is still the Shanahan style stuff and that generally favors a good tight end on crossing routes and things like that.

@au_mschmidt How big a factor in Rick’s firing was him forcing Rob B. to do some truly awful contracts?

It was more the body of work and the overall atmosphere with the front office and coach. Any time a GM asks ownership to doll out that much money to fiddle with all these contracts and misses the playoffs in back-to-back years, you’re not likely to have a job. Add in that Zimmer/Spielman were at odds and people within the front office felt like they weren’t being heard, well, you got yourself a new GM.

@HeyItsMattyFez Let’s say the Cousins trade market is competitive and you get two offers: 1. A first rounder and they take most of the money, or 2. A first and another high draft pick, but the Vikings keep most of his cap hit for 2022. Which offer would you take?

Give me No. 2 all day. One thing they can do in 2022 that would be majorly beneficial is find out what they have with a lot of young or young-ish players. They can get guys who didn’t have chances last year some opportunities to compete for jobs and see who emerges. You’d prefer that and more draft capital to a few more million in cap space to add a veteran safety or something.

@AlNotino If KAM and KOC truly do like Kirk, doesn't that give him all the leverage to negotiate an even more expensive extension? Doesn't he have the option of playing one more year and then becoming a free agent, in which he may command an even higher salary?

Certainly does. There was a report the other day with the expectation that Derek Carr will get $40 million per year. Why would Cousins settle for anything less? He’s well aware of what he could earn on the free agent market if he has another good year in 2022.

@stromer_kevin I was impressed with Tyler Conklins catching ability where would you rank him on the team?

Tyler has really terrific hands. I remember talking about it when we saw his first rookie minicamp. He caught everything and that remained true when he got to play. My guess is that because he’s a free agent, another team will give him a pretty substantial offer and he’ll be nabbing passes elsewhere next year.

@WisconsinDonny Would teams be more interested in a trade for Kirk Cousins if Vikings asked for draft capital in the 2023 draft verses 2022.

Possibly. That would be like the Wentz deal. I don’t think the Vikings should be opposed to that. It’s always hard to see that far down the road when you’re making a move but when you get there, it’s like finding a $100 bill in your couch. This team wants to be really good for a really long time, which takes accumulating great players. That only happens by gathering assets to acquire them. Even if you have to wait a little longer for that chance, it still pays off in the long run.

@tuffytime74 OL time…..Two part question. Have you heard any update regarding Wyatt Davis? Are their any Cs that could be an upgrade via FA?

I saw that CT talked to Wyatt Davis about working with Duke Manyweather. That’s a good plan for him. Duke has a tremendous reputation as an offensive line trainer. If he wants to get in shape, Duke will do that for him. In free agency, there are some very good centers. Ryan Jensen from Tampa Bay is an elite player, so is Brian Allen from the Rams. Baltimore’s Bradley Bozeman was fifth by PFF last year and Tennessee’s Ben Jones is good, too. The market does fall off after that though.

@WarleyOwl Loved your piece on Watson, but from what you know of the locker room how would it go down in there if someone in a situation like Watson was brought in?

My guess is that Watson wouldn’t be a locker room problem. Stuff that goes on outside of the realm of football is usually not part of the equation for players. Most guys want to mind their own business and not get caught up in that sort of thing. That said, if Watson had to miss games and they lost because of it, you can bet it would be an issue.

@JRG_2154 If you were the GM of the Vikings would you sign Watson?

I would not. The cost versus the risk just doesn’t add up.

@John2Quick4Me Where vanilla wafers rank on your power rankings of cookies?

I don’t mind them now and then. Can’t say that I would lean heavily on them though. Probably outside of the top five.

@thetuse The Rams OL was ranked PFF 7. Vikes were 23. Heard the Rams used a lot of 11 personnel. The Vikes had to use 2 TE and sometimes Ham to protect Kirk. Are the Vikes capable of running a similar Rams offense with the current OL rostered?

The Vikings used a lot of 11 personnel last year with Irv Smith’s injury and the emergence of KJ Osborn and had success with it. There were times that I felt the running game may have suffered without those extra big bodies in the mix. It really takes having receivers who can block in the run game and a running back who can chip in. The No. 1 goal should be improving the interior pass blocking. KOC gets to start with two good tackles. I expect we will see O’Connell try to use bigger personnel more than McVay does in LA.

@jblohse With apparently several coaches coming in from LA and Denver, which FA from those teams do you think the Vikings might target?

There’s some very interesting free agents from those teams. Austin Corbett and Brian Allen, two interior OL starters from the Rams. Rams starting corner Darious Williams, Broncos safety Kareem Jackson, Broncos corners Bryce Callahan and Kyle Fuller, Rams interior DL Sebastian Joseph. They could all be good targets.

@Ronzoniii obviously it’s difficult to truly gauge so much from a press conference in terms of what is said, but did you get the impression KOC truly wants to keep/extend Kirk or did it seem more like presser-talk (saying what you feel you should say)

I thought O’Connell did a terrific job of navigating those questions without being committal. He was complimentary but also didn’t say that he can’t go forward in this world without Cousins. It sounded like he was preparing to build the offense for Kirk in 2022 but nothing indicated that we should shut down all further Cousins trade talk.

@al3701 I know on one of your latest podcasts you mentioned Barr, now that we’re going to the 3-4 defense do you think he’d be a good fit?

Most “3-4” defenses end up being more like a mix of 5-1-5 and 3-2-6. So if Barr stayed with the Vikings, he would probably switch between rushing off the edge and playing a very similar role to what he’s had in the past. I don’t know if that’s the right direction with him. We’re talking about someone who’s almost 30, has knee problems and has never rushed off the edge before. To me, he never really profiled as that guy. Players like Von Miller have insane quickness. Barr is more like a pickup truck, not a Lamborghini. He’s a great blitzer up the middle but not someone I’d expect to beat tackles one-on-one.

@DavidSo47425155 If Jim Harbaugh is such hot stuff....why has no other team hired him the last 7 years??

Nods.

@LfcMay Give me your power rankings these activities. 1=most desirable 5=least desirable: Jury Duty, surprise in-law visits, Anything Kirk Cousins, Tony Romo noises during games, mock draft analysis

My in-laws never surprise us because they live in Los Angeles but I have good in-laws, so, no complaints there. I’m not big on Romo, maybe I’d go with a 3 or 4 there. The novelty wore off quick. Mock draft analysis is fun. Jury duty is easily a 5.

@JimmyBjorklund_ If the Vikings are to trade Kirk for a first, how would that impact draft strategy in a QB class like this? I’d be more inclined to use the higher pick to obtain a strong defensive talent, then having the later 1st rounder to snag one of the remaining QB’s if it makes sense.

I’d say make sure you are getting the quarterback that everybody agrees on. If Malik Willis is everyone’s dream QB, don’t screw around, just go get him. If O’Connell and Adofo-Mensah feel good about 2-3 quarterbacks and don’t mind if any of them land on the Vikings, they can wait and make sure they get a good pass rusher or cornerback first.

@onerealeazye How many recent Super Bowl contenders (conference championship teams) have been paying top 5-10 quarterback money for the 4-5 years in a row, before they were contenders? Packers, falcons, saints (no Super Bowl winners)?Very difficult to build with $$ tied up

I like the characterization of “very difficult.” It’s not impossible but it usually takes accumulating a lot of draft picks and hitting on those picks and then winning before those picks need contracts of their own. In 2017, the Vikings were paying a lot of cap space to the QB position but Diggs, Hunter, Kendricks, Barr, Rhodes were all on rookie deals still and Thielen was cheap. It’s not easy to get that much talent for that cheap to surround a QB.

@cweb01 If Iowa Center Tyler Linderbaum is available when the Vikings pick, what's the percentage they take him?

Maybe like 10%? He’s a terrific prospect but Adofo-Mensah is going to put a lot of stock in positional value and picking a center is just not a good positional value play.

@dmoney0919 *Assuming Kirk remains in the Purple and Gold this upcoming season* What kind of season would it take (for both him and the team) in order to start shifting the narrative away from “he is who he is” as a .500 QB?

It’s not really a “narrative,” it’s a fact. There would have to be actual evidence that he could lead a team to anything better than mid-pack and even if he does, what are the chances that sustains year after year? Does anyone think Matthew Stafford is going to play as well as he did this year for years to come with the Rams? Pop up seasons happen but the bigger sample is going to tell us about the most likely direction in the future. Kirk is going to be 34. It’s not like there’s some magical ceiling. He’s capable of a pop-up season where the team is great but how exactly is the team going to be great?

@tadfundermann If the team extends Cousins, trades him, or lets him play out the final year how could that change the free agency/draft plans? Extend him and go all in on OL? Trade him and focus on defense? Curious how you think the Kirk decision will affect the 2022 plan.

I think a deliberate approach is the right way to go. If they trade him, it won’t be a magic elixir right away with the salary cap because they’ll still have to take back some cap space and if they extend him, we’re probably still talking a $20-$30 million cap hit for 2022. They should be looking for good players that they can keep for a long time. Signing guys who are 26 or 27 years old and hitting free agency for the first time that would be interested in four or five year contracts that won’t be restrictive going forward. A good example might be a corner like DJ Reed. He’s 26, played over 1,000 snaps last year and graded seventh by PFF but will probably go under the radar because he isn’t as big of a name as someone like Stephon Gilmore. Young-ish, not crazy expensive and with upside.

@ramseykincannon what does an Assistant Head Coach *do* exactly? Any limit to # of AHC titles you can have on the team? I'm surprised that OC is a promotion from Running Game Coordinator/Assistant HC (Thomas Brown)...

I’m going to tell you the truth: I have no idea. I’ve never asked anyone exactly what that title means or whether you can have multiple assistant head coaches. I would assume it’s a right-hand man. Somebody who is clearly the No. 2 in charge. But aside from that, maybe it’s to help a coach get out of a previous contract by upping their title and pay?

@rgonzalez021991 What do you do with irv smith? Keep him? Trade him? Or do you think he will be use more under the new HC?

Oh they will definitely keep him. He will get his chance to be the true No. 1 tight end next year and if his training camp is any indication, he can be a breakout player.

@jrm531 Opinions on the coaching staff as it fills out? Keeping McCardell seemed like a savvy under the radar move, but overall, are the names coming in, and their resumes, speaking volumes about how serious ownership/management are about trying to win a SB?Anything questionable so far?

I really like the idea of keeping McCardell. Position coaches are the buffer between the head coach and the player and sometimes that can have a very positive impact on the player. I got a text from our pal Jeremiah Sirles saying he’s all for the offensive line coach hire. The fat dudes up front are the only ones who could ever tell you about O-line coaches, so I’ll trust him on that. I’m not sure there’s anything that I would question. Having someone experienced as Donatell seems logical too.

@BIG_dannn after reading @CourtneyRCronin ESPN piece it feels Kirk has all the power and Vikings are at his mercy unless some team is desperate enough to take his contract..if they can’t I’m I wrong in thinking it’s better to pay his last year and be free of him then to extend him?

I’ll always say that he has the best agent in the world. These contracts he’s had in Minnesota are incredibly good for him. But I’ll also continue to say that I believe there are teams who would take him. There have been teams in recent years willing to move heaven and earth to fit players’ contracts under the salary cap because they are in a “winning window” and with the sheer volume of franchises looking for QB upgrades, there has to be one who can work out a deal if the Vikings want it to happen. I’m not sure that I see the benefit of letting him play out the $45 million for the Vikings. What good is another 9-8 year with a roster that isn’t good enough to prop him up? It doesn’t help the team move forward.

@tjkill81 What do you think of mitchell trubisky as a option for a bridge quarterback?

I can feel people reading this and making stink faces but I actually don’t hate it. He won’t be expensive after spending last year as a full-time backup and he was limited by circumstances in Chicago. There would also be no delusions that he could be the long-term guy. Zero QB controversy and a guy who can make the playoffs on a decent team.

David via email Does one of the players drafted in the 3rd round last year (and then buried) start next year?

One thing real quick: I don’t think they wronged any of the third-round picks by not playing them. Anybody past the second round is a developmental guy. If I’m putting my dollars and cents on one of them, it would have to be Wyatt Davis. I’m very interested in Chazz Surratt. He was the high ceiling guy in that round. Ultimately it’s probably the fourth rounders in Bynum and Nwangwu who turn out to be the best mid-rounders.

@skiyouMeeko Do you think connections to KOC or Donatell could benefit Vikings in FA? (Ie Williams, Corbett, Hicks, Von)

It would be a surprise if they landed big fish but maybe there’s some underrated guys or players that were developing in Los Angeles that they could poach. Here’s an example: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo is a 27-year-old free agent who was the third highest graded pass rusher on the Rams this year. Cornerback Dont'e Deayon, another UFA, had a solid PFF coverage grade in 461 snaps. Nobody’s going to pay big money for these guys but they might have upside.

@carli_tu Will the Vikings resign Griffen?

I’d be surprised if Everson plays in the NFL again.

@VikingsCouch What is the impact of the Cousins fully guaranteed contract on the trajectory of the Vikings franchise? It’s a team famously risk-averse at QB and must choose between eating a big cap hit if they even have the courage to let him walk, or extending him ever more guaranteed years.

If we follow the paths, extending him has a chance to lock them into the same place that they have been for years. Eating a big chunk of his cap would be restricting for one offseason and then the doors would swing wide open for them to spend after 2022 and vastly improve a roster that already has some good long-term pieces i.e. Jefferson, O’Neill, Darrisaw, Smith Jr.