Friday Mailbag: All the camp questions
Friday Mailbag: All the camp questions
The Vikings are fully into training camp and there's lots to discuss
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By Matthew Coller
Fun times, aye folks? Vikings camp is off to a very interesting start and we’re approaching the first preseason game next week so let’s dive right into your questions…
OldDrummer55… What type of pay cap/overall contract impact would we incur by cutting Andrew Booth Jr?
It’s unfavorable to cut a second rounder this early. It would be a $2.5 million in dead cap this year. Next year it doesn’t hurt them at all ($294k dead cap) and then in 2025 they would earn $1.8 in space. It’s too early to wave the white flag right now — and it doesn’t sound like the current injury is something serious. He’s just trending down and might never turn upward. Being passed by a rookie on the depth chart only a few days into camp is pretty tough but we’ll see if he gets another chance at some point.
Never Played Madden…. Pie chart of blame for the decline in second contract market for RBs. GM collusion, analytical analyses, glut of good (or good enough) RBs, other?
It’s not GM collusion but I do think the NFL getting wise to things like age curves and the ease of replaceability has been a major cause. Teams also care much less about keeping fans happy knowing that people will show up to stadiums no matter what happens. In my mind it’s not collusion to do something that’s efficient and logical. They don’t pay centers or safeties much either. It’s not the analytics’ fault that every study for many years found that those contracts blew up. The glut of good running backs thing is a big factor. Every year there’s a bunch of guys coming into the draft who can play. But I think the pie chart would be completely that the running backs themselves did not force the league to keep paying them. A whole ton of huge contract guys blew up right after they got their money and never become the hybrid RB/WRs that we thought would happen eventually. Had RBs continued to play at their peak into their late-20s and made those contracts worth it, we’d still see them getting paid.
Ben…. We’ve heard a ton about Flores running 0 and blitzing like hell, but the rest of the league is trending towards Fangio-style cover 2 looks with a lot of success (see the Super Bowl winning Tampa defense that was a leader in pass defense while allowing plenty of run yardage). I know nobody wants to see the Dona-shell defense ever again, but how much do you think Flores will actually go nuts with high risk blitzing vs deploying shells that give our corners some breathing room? Maybe a pie chart???!!
There’s never just one system that works and all others fail. It’s true that the Fangio stuff is trendy but Brandon Staley has run it with basically no success in Los Angeles and teams like San Francisco and the Jets don’t run that style and were great. The blitz-happy Giants squeezed a lot out of a middling talent defense by being super aggressive. It’s definitely boom or bust though. If you look at the 2021 season with Miami, they had some games where the defense got absolutely blown up (35-0 loss to Buffalo, 45-17 to Tampa Bay, 30-28 L to Atlanta, 34-3 against Tennessee) but they also had a run of six of seven games where they allowed 20 points are fewer. I would guess that we see similar results. Flores is going to be aggressive hell or high water. Is there a better way than leaning into the variance when you have a questionable roster?
David Wrobleski… How many inside linebackers make the team?
I’d guess five. Brian Asamoah, Jordan Hicks, Troy Reeder, Troy Dye and one more. Right now it’s leaning heavily toward Ivan Pace Jr.
Ben Does signing Dalton Risner change the potential outcome for the season??
It would be hard to convince me that a single guard is going to swing the entire season but there is a pretty significant defense between having an OK offensive line and very good offensive line. If they can cut down the weak links to only one, there are ways to work around that. But if they don’t add Risner and get similar results to last season from the guards, we’ll see a lot of the same stretches of frustrating football while Cousins is getting repeatedly pressured. It would also depend on Risner being as good as he’s been in Denver as a pass blocker. We know it’s not an easy gig to be a guard with Cousins as your quarterback.
CJ McAulay Talk me into: “THREE DEEP IS BACK, BABY!”
You know how much I enjoy a good “talk me into…” but there is no world where Osborn or Addison is either Cris Carter or Jake Reed. They could absolutely have one of the best groups of weapons in the league if Addison is really good right off the bat but Reed was a four-time 1,000-yard receiver and Carter is an NFL legend. I’m not sure there will ever be a group of receivers like that again. Now if they had kept Diggs and drafted Jefferson….
Howard… I've noticed Justin Jefferson appears to have grown a goatee. I'm not a fan of it personally but wondered if any other players have gone for any kind of image makeover. Or what might work - how about Cousins with a Mohican?
I can’t speak to young players’ decisions about pretty much anything aesthetically because the youthful trends have passed me by — though I did grow up in an era where the goatee was quite popular. The most obvious change for Cousins would be going complete mullet with mutton chops. He would look like Joe Dirt.
Tom… What would you need to see for the remainder of training camp/preseason to be convinced that the Vikings are legitimate contender in the NFC?
The biggest potential swing is with Addison. Already he’s looking good but if he starts to dominate on a daily basis and looks like he’s on his way to being an elite receiver and Flores’s defense gets better and better throughout the summer, I would maybe increase the chances of them winning the North and having some type of shot at it. But truthfully, it would be very hard to move off my initial prediction of 10 wins just based on a camp with good vibes. There are a lot of roster realities to this team, including the extreme lack of depth at some very important positions, not to mention the tougher schedule, more road games etc. that could limit them even if they are a good overall team.
Chuck…So much of the defense talk has centered around blitzing/pressure being brought from all over-I'm curious how (if at all) the DL is affected by the new scheme?
My impression is that the defensive linemen on the interior — guys like Dean Lowry and Harrison Phillips — are responsible for creating lanes for the blitzers. So they aren’t just screaming upfield with their hair on fire trying to sack the quarterback, they are taking up blockers, pushing linemen in certain ways that make it easier for guys to come free from the second level. I still tend to think they didn’t do enough to get pressure from the interior but they do have some guys who are smart and experienced and can accomplish what Flores needs to make his pass rush schemes work.
TheDude… Probably too early but any OL or DL (outside of the established stars) making an impression?
Yeah, it is too early in general but I will say that Khyiris Tonga has been a beast. He’s been getting a ton of first-team reps and stuffing run plays pretty consistently. He is a massive man with a ton of strength and I think last year gave him a lot of confidence after he got into the action and performed pretty well.
Stephanie…. Does Cousins look like a QB who is playing the second year of a new scheme? As in, does he look more comfortable this year compared to last?
Last year was a really messy camp because there were a ton of growing pains between him and the receivers. I remember one practice he threw five interceptions and came off the field looking pretty exasperated. I haven’t seen that from him this year. The offense is struggling with some of the Flores blitzes and I wonder if they are getting a little annoyed because they aren’t seeing some of the stuff that most teams run but aside from that it’s been a pretty relaxed version of Cousins so far. Whether that translates into something different, I’m not sure. More than anything it’s probably just having Hockenson for the entire camp and start of the season that will help Kirk most.
Matthew… If the JJ and TJ contract extensions don't end up happening this year, are there any other moves the team makes to bring in players/trades/etc. with the remaining cap or do they decide to just carry it over?
They could still do the extensions and add some players, depending on how they want to structure things. I’m all for it. If you’re going to try to win this year, try to win this year. Bring in Risner, add Melvin Ingram or another veteran pass rusher, get a veteran depth RB and maybe another veteran corner as a backup. At this point in the game those guys are extremely low risk and low cost and potentially have decent reward if they can still play.
Thomas… Over/under on additional emergency podcasts from now until the last day of camp: 1.5?
The safe bet is over — one for Hock and one for JJ. Even if both of them don’t sign, there is probably something else that causes an emergency pod. After all, this is the Vikings. I’m always on high alert.
Connor… Kirk noted the difficulty he was having with protections and run checks against this front, have you noticed whether the defense, specifically the shell, is giving receivers/tight ends a hard time too? I.e., apparent miscommunication in the pass-game, double-clutches by QB's, etc. A blitz heavy scheme coupled with disguised coverages can be a problem all season.
Just in general, there are so many different looks that Flores gives even within a single practice that it makes things tough on everyone on offense. It stresses the quarterback having to make those checks based on what he sees pre-snap, the offensive linemen knowing where the pressure is coming from or figuring out which guys to block in the run game, receivers in blocking and changing routes due to coverage. That’s why, despite the possibility for coverage busts, I still like Flores’s philosophy in general.
Michael… Has there been a successful screen pass in practice?
Screen passes never look all that successful in practice because you can’t tell which guys would have made or missed the tackle but in general I get what you’re trying to say: The screen game has to be a lot better this year. It’s impossible for me to say based on practice whether it actually will be or not.
LORNE…. A year ago, the Vikings traded back and chose to pass on Jameson Williams. This decision was the first of many made with this strategy by Kwasi. Do you think that this season, we will look back in horror at passing on Williams?
That hindsight horror might depend more on Jordan Addison than it does Williams. If he’s good for Detroit but Addison is good for the Vikings, then all’s well that ends well, I suppose. The Vikings wouldn’t have really been able to use Williams much last year because of his injury, so it’s not like he could have made the difference between a deep playoff run and first-round out and they ultimately filled that post-Thielen position by drafting Addison. Evaluating that decision depends a lot on whether Lewis Cine works out and also Kyle Hamilton. He was very good for Baltimore last year and if he turns into a star it’ll be worth wondering (probably already is) why they didn’t just take him there instead of moving down and getting very little in return. Now the worst hindsight from that draft will be if Kenny Pickett turns out to be really good because they could have picked him, sat him and started him this year.
Lancer… How much of the time will the defense be in the "big" nickel? Also, would Flores consider using a dime package with Metellus and Cine playing linebacker?
Cine is not a box safety type. He never played that at Georgia and I haven’t seen him getting up into the box a ton during these practices. He’s supposed to be a deep safety who can fly around and make plays on the ball or accelerate up to the LOS and make run stops even when he’s lined up back. Metellus is the guy who can play a hybrid role and he’s definitely going to do that. If Cine is playing, it’s going to be in Cam Bynum’s spot — or at least that’s how it appears to me at the moment.
Jason… Why did the old regime refuse to negotiate once the season started with players on their contracts? Is this something that KOC and KAM will do as well?
Was that an edict or just the general work flow of the NFL? I can’t think of too many contract extensions that are getting done with any players during the year. It’s so intense for everyone that usually the league uses the spring and summer to do those negotiations.
Hunter… What would be a reasonable expectation for the running game in the second year of Kevin O’Connell’s offense? I don’t think anyone’s expecting Alexander Mattison to break 1000 yards by himself, but could we expect to see the team go over 1500 yards collectively? Also, can we give Alexander Mattison a cool nickname like The Founding Father?
The total yardage is probably less important than the efficiency. Last year they couldn’t punish anybody with the run game and weren’t able to use it to close out games where they had the lead or get into favorable play-action situations. Mostly KOC was calling run plays at the right time (i.e. not on second-and-10) but they had too many negative runs. If they make a jump in EPA and just feel like a more consistently effective run game rather than boom or bust, it’ll be a win. But yeah, 1,500 yards sounds about right. Also that’s a good nickname.
Rob… We’re all familiar with the draft charts Jimmy Johnson, Rich Hill, Fitzgerald-Spielberger, etc. why hasn’t someone come up with a trade value chart for veteran players? Example: Edge on second contract, below age 30, no All Pro selections but grades above average per PFF would be worth a 2nd and 4th (look familiar?) or are veteran players trade value whatever the GM trading for the player decides?
It might be possible to have something more concrete than just eyeballing it but every situation with veterans is so complex. The draft has odds for each pick becoming a star, starter, average player, replacement level player etc., whereas every veteran has an injury history, team salary cap and desperation to move or acquire them and many other things that go into it. However, I would love to know what team has gained the most by making trades for actual players over the years. Sometimes I’m confused why teams don’t go after veterans more often.
Josh… On the D-line front, who are your top 2-3 guys that a year from now we could pencil in on the d-line as a solid if not better starter?
The thing about their D-line is that it really isn’t a young group. If we are looking at someone to be a “prospect” who could develop into a regular it’s probably Jaquelin Roy. It looks like Khyiris Tonga is going to be a dude for them for a while. That’s about it as of this moment.
@K5Kelley Rather than looking at Risner potentially signing as competition for either guard position, is it possible that it’s more of an insurance option in case O’Neill has a set back since Ezra Cleveland has played RT before?
Ezra hasn’t played right tackle, unless it was early in his college career and that really doesn’t count. He was the right guard two years ago but I don’t think that would help him. If they sign Risner, it’s purely to compete with Cleveland and/or Ingram to start at one of the guard spots. They should be comfortable with Oli Udoh as the backup tackle if O’Neill isn’t ready.
@kyleshaner What, if anything, are the Vikings doing during training camp for potential extreme heat and poor air quality caused by wildfire smoke?
I don’t know of any particular measures being taken. They have still practiced at all the same expected times. I’m sure if the smoke got too intense they would move inside but the heat isn’t a big deal to most of these guys. I’d guess more than half of them are from Georgia, Texas or Florida. This is nothing to them. They wear long sleeves out there. The team is also extremely diligent about keeping players hydrated. There are regular breaks in practice for everyone to get Gatorade and they emphasize hydration in their nutrition programs.
@AstroGardener As you know the 3 member of IOL our team have been atrocious pass blockers. As you know you cannot teach old dogs new tricks. In your opinion, how many games difference would have made if IOL could have been just avg in a 17 game season?
Last year? Probably none. Remember, their losses weren’t close. They got crushed in Philly, vs. Dallas, vs. Green Bay and their offense was really good in the loss to Detroit on the road but the defense was horrendous. This year it could swing a couple games if they make significant improvement on the interior. I wouldn’t call them old dogs since both Ingram and Cleveland are still on rookie contracts and Cleveland is relatively new to guard. I’m not predicting they become Larry Allen and Nate Newton but they could definitely jump to mediocre instead of leading the league in pressures by a guard duo.
@StockMarketSco1 What would be the more intriguing situation: Vikings stink in 2023 but draft Caleb Williams or a 2023 deep playoff run (at least NFC Championship)?
For my purposes both would be really something in terms of the content. Though I can say from experience, covering a great team is a lot easier than covering a horrendous team. It’s an interesting question of whether you’d take a deep run or Williams. You would always take a chance in the NFC Championship over Caleb Williams if the outcome of the NFCC game is unknown. If it’s an NFCC game loss,I’d bet many would just take Williams.
@headcoach21 What are the origins of NFL training camp??
A while back Bleacher Report did a “history of training camp” article. That’s worth checking out.
@BackAftaThis My annual "How underrated was Leroy Hoard?!" question.
LeRoy was the best. My favorite Hoard stat is that he averaged more yards per catch in his career than Marshall Faulk, presumably because nobody expected them to throw it to him.
Anonymous PI subscriber… How much of a mistake was it not drafting Kyle Hamilton?
We’re going to find out. It’s not over after one year. At the moment, it looks like a big L. Hamilton could have been a foundational player.
@Brianschiel4 When teams are ‘talking’ with a player for months about a contract, how much actual ‘talking’ is happening? I realize that’s a broad question but at some point, how much is there to really talk about?
There’s a lot of details in these contracts. It probably means they reach a certain point in a negotiation where they don’t quite have a deal and aren’t ready to walk away from the table because both sides want to get it done and then they decide to revisit. There’s vacations in the summer, other deals going on, things that come up for the agent or team that take way their time to nail out those details. That’s probably what they mean.
@maxbrouse What percentage odds would you give Kirk Cousins being our QB in 2024. I've been wanting to move on from Kirk, but I hope he stays now. He seems to have made a big jump with KOC, and it seems like he might actually take a below-market deal at this point in his career.
Probably like 10-15%. I don’t see where the big jump is, aside from the fact they won a lot of games at the end. He was down last year by almost every metric (PFF grade, QBR, rating etc.) and if he was going to take a below market deal he would have already signed an extension. It’s certainly possible they could have a great year and then work something out with the team to stay but there’s a reason they didn’t do the full buy-in with him this offseason. They like him but they also realize that quarterbacks in their mid-to-late 30s are pretty hard to project. There’s also the whole thing about having one playoff win with him…