Friday mailbag: A trade and trap game

How much will TJ Hockenson play? Should the Vikings be worried about the Commanders? And much more from Vikings fans...

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By Matthew Coller

Alrighty folks, the Minnesota Vikings are all in, so let’s get down to business with your questions…

@GeofftheJohnson The Hockenson trade seems like one that could end up being a “really good trade,” i.e. one which makes a significant difference to the team, which got me thinking—how many “really good trades” did we see during Spielman/Zimmer regime? I mean, were there any? Seems notable.

We can’t really call the Sam Bradford trade a success, right? That’s a weird one because he proved to be a quality NFL QB in his short time in Minnesota but wasn’t the one under center to take them anywhere. The trade that comes to mind is Gerald Hodges for Nick Easton. It was not a big deal at the time but ultimately made a significant difference for them in 2017 when he fit perfectly for the run/screen game that Pat Shurmur wanted to run. Outside of that, the swing for Yannick Ngakoue pretty much blew up in their face and I can’t think of too many other deals that had any real impact. Trading away Mike Hughes for essentially nothing… did not work out.

@gonefishing58 I can understand why the Vikings would want a player like Hockenson but what's Detroit motivation for trading him? He's a blue chip player, he's young and he's still relatively cheap. What am I missing? Why wouldn't Detroit want to hang onto him?

I wish I had an answer for you. My best guess is that they are looking at the next few offseasons and considering where they want to invest their money and it’s not at tight end. There are maybe 3-5 tight ends at any given time who are complete game changers and I don’t know if Hockenson fits that bill. Maybe he doesn’t fit their run scheme as well as they would like? It’s hard to say. They should be a team that keeps every young player they can.

@JoshuaR_Smith For me, the Washington franchise brings to mind Darrell Green. And Darrell Green was fast as blazes. So can we reminisce here about how cool the (almost annual) NFL’s Fastest Man competition was, and perhaps dissect why it went away to probably never be seen again in the same format?

Am I remembering correctly that they tried it a couple years ago? If I’m not mistaken, didn’t Trae Waynes and ex-Vikings practice squader Jeff Badet participate in a 40-yard dash contest? But then it turned out to be a scam and nobody got paid. It does feel like they used to do stuff like that all the time, including the QB competition at the Pro Bowl. The NFL canceling the Pro Bowl to make it a bunch of goofy games is a good throwback. By the way, Patrick Peterson having this season is reminiscent of Darrell Green… but he would need to do it for eight more years to be like Green. Crazy stuff. Can you believe the amazing history Washington has and how they have tossed it all in the trash, poured gasoline and dropped a grenade on it?

@smccullough5 Contracts not considered, this trade for Hockenson seems like a better fit for Kirk than getting someone like Chase Claypool or Brandin Cooks given Kirk's skittishness and propensity to throw the check down instead of a tight window throw. Agree or were there better trade fits?

Is that really the case? He hasn’t exactly dominated with tight ends since leaving Washington when both of those guys ran 4.4 or 4.5 40s. Didn’t Kyle Rudolph leave unhappy? If anything Cousins’ deep ball — maybe the biggest strength of his career — won’t improve with this move and would have with Claypool or Cooks. I still think it’s a good move and maybe some of those underneath throws end up going for 15 or 20 yards because Hockenson is good after the catch. But it doesn’t change the fundamental issue of this offense lacking explosive passing plays.

@alstrain This may be a bucket of cold water, but the Hockenson Trade is going to require (another) off-season of cap gymnastics. It won’t help them in free agency, but could we see some post June 1 cuts for contracts like Thielen, Cook and Smith?

They are going to be in a state of cap gymnastics for a few years unless they do a major housecleaning, yes. At this moment I have no idea if they are going to June 1 cut Thielen, Cook and Smith. We’re so far away from that. We have to see how they play for the rest of the season and how the team feels like they fit in with what Kevin O’Connell wants to do. If they win 12 games and these guys all stay largely healthy and put up good numbers there’s no way they’re moving on from them.

@gonefishing58 Is Washington a trap game? Washington has been playing better. Reading some quotes seems like Vikings are really starting to believe in themselves after the Arizona win. With Buffalo on the horizon could the Vikings be looking past the Commanders?

Yes and no. In the way that they have gotten over the hump to finally be considered a contender and now they face an inferior team with the real test one week away, yes it’s trap-ish. But Washington has won three games in a row. They have superstars on their defensive line, great weapons at receiver and they’re fighting for playoff position. Plus Cousins is going back to D.C., which should mean a lot to all of them just like Patrick Peterson’s revenge last week did. So this one has juice.

@smccullough5 When exactly will Jordan Berry crush our collective souls and ruin our season?

At first I wanted to call you a lunatic but it did come into my mind that Greg Joseph was great during training camp kicking with Berry and hasn’t been good kicking with Ryan Wright. Hm.

@MIvikesfan how involved can Hockenson get in the offense having been on the team less than a week? how long until we can expect him to be fully integrated and comfortable with the new system for him?

It would be very hard for him to play 65 snaps right away but based on other players who have been traded midseason, I don’t think it will take any more than two weeks before he’s fully integrated in the offense. By the time they arrive in Buffalo you would expect him to be ready to play the entire game.

@GriffRobMike Using the updated trade charts, what is the equivalent of trade value Vikes gave up for Hockenson? Do you think they made this with the idea to extend him in the off-season if things go well?

I might have to be a little more mathematically gifted to figure out the exact equivalent value but using the Fitzgerald-Spielberger chart, a second and third in the approximate area where the Vikings might be picking in 2023 and 2024 (which is really eyeballing it) would be like a middle first-round pick and the fourths the Vikings got are kind of like a second rounder. I guess you could say it’s like getting a guy and moving back out of the first into the mid-second…or something in that ballpark…but that’s really theoretically speaking. The thing about the charts is that a second-round pick is a starter and all the other picks are hopes and dreams. I totally respect the process for determining these things but that’s my common sense take. The Vikings gave up a possible cheap starter for a sure-thing good starter who can help them now and will be expensive later. All other picks involved are spare change.

@RealBHogenson With the 6-1 start and Hockenson addition, it's time to ask the question that's on all of our minds: how will this team rip our hearts out this time?

If I knew, I wouldn’t tell you. In fact, maybe I already know and I’m not telling you. Would you pay extra on your Purple Insider subscription if I told you exactly how it was going to go down?

I think everyone knows what could happen here. They are deeply reliant on key starters staying healthy. If a few players go down it’s going to be a rough ride even with a schedule that isn’t daunting.

@headcoach21 If the Vikings were to beat Buffalo would the outlook in the team change??

Looking right past Washington, huh. If they beat Buffalo it would be like when the 2017 team took down the Rams at US Bank Stadium. That was the you’re-for-real game. Or it would be the NFL being completely random sometimes and mean less than we think. I dunno. I guess they’ll have to do it first and then I’ll decide.

@KRJohnson42 With Kirk's reluctance in the past to throw to Rudolph (or anyone) in tight coverage, is there any data on how much separation Hockenson has been able to create?

Yes there is. ESPN’s Brian Burke developed metrics based on NFLNextGen stats that show Hockenson isn’t that much better than Irv Smith Jr. at getting open. However, he is quite a bit better than Rudolph in that regard and his YAC ability is superior to both by a significant margin. So it’s about scheming him the ball and giving him a chance to run places with it. Simple game.

@isaacbrown2411 Fans only question: in the NFL power rankings they have the 4-4 49ers at 4 and the 6-1 Vikings at 7 going into week 9. When are they going to start taking us seriously and why haven’t they yet this far into the season?

I’m going to power rank the things that I can’t stand about power rankings:

1 — They don’t impact anything or actually tell you anything about anything

2 — They usually aren’t based on whatever just happened the previous week

3 — People get worked up over them and yet… see No. 1

4 — If the teams’ records all had to match up with the power rankings then… wait, that’s just the standings and….

5 — Power rankings are mostly just the standings in-season

The Vikings have the seventh best Super Bowl odds by DraftKings. They are being taken seriously. It’s also fair to say that San Francisco is a better team than their 4-4 record based on the totality of talent and recent success in 2019 and 2021.

When I was in Buffalo, fans used to constantly talk about how they were disrespected when Trent Edwards or Ryan Fitzpatrick won a few games in a row. Now with Josh Allen they never say that. Coincidence, I’m sure.

@smccullough5 Is it time to explore other options at RG? Ingram is a rookie and all that jazz but he's looked very suspect recently.

This week might be the last test case for the right guard position considering they face an excellent defensive line. If they get smoked up the middle again, it’s time to look at either Oli Udoh, Blake Brandel, Chris Reed or Austin Schlottmann. I’m not sure which one is the best option — Reed would make sense but he hasn’t even been active. Cousins has faced a higher percentage of pressure from the right guard position than anyone in the league this year. That can’t continue against great defenses in Buffalo and Dallas.

@JoeSebesta I'd love to understand Goff versus cousins and making tight window/contested throws. Not to be negative, but I think the throw that Kirk made to Jefferson against the Cardinals last Sunday is more the exception versus the rule. Love trade on paper, not sure that cousins will take advantage of this new weapon.

What’s interesting about Goff is that you can see the moment Sean McVay took the keys away from him. He was a big-time throw and turnover-worthy play machine in 2018 and 2019 and then his average depth of target plummeted along with both of those stats for 2020 and 2021. This year he’s back to his old numbers. He had four BTTs last week and three TWPs the week before. Cousins has much more consistently been risk averse but he had a scheme that centered on running and then throwing deep off play-action. Now that it’s a different scheme it seems like he’s learning where he can take risks and playing conservatively otherwise. I wouldn’t expect him to become Brett Favre or 2017 YOLO Case Keenum any time soon but his aggressiveness can increase as he becomes more comfortable.

@bobh332 How shallow are we in the defensive backfield at this point? Booth sightings at all?

They have no proven depth at all, so it’s really hard to say how anyone else would perform if called upon. As far as Booth goes, he’s only going to play if there’s a reason. They have been healthy so far but one thing to watch is Cam Dantzler. The last two weeks have reeked havoc on his coverage stats. He’s now allowing a 118.8 QB rating on throws in his direction. I wonder if there might be some rotations for Booth if that continues against these elite receivers over the next few weeks.

@tjrheaume Assuming the Vikings extend Hockenson, can any of his salary for 5th year option be converted to signing bonus and prorated over the life of the extension?

If the team exercises its fifth-year option and then signs a player to an extension before his fifth year, the option cap hit just goes away and it’s replaced by the extension dollar figure. If the fifth-year has already kicked in, then there’s no messing with that. It’s set in stone.

@RobDN1 What’s wrong with Greg Joseph? Is it technique or something else…Vikings and kickers *sigh*

Kickers? Man, I have no idea. Nobody knows with kickers. A few years ago I looked at a bunch of Pro Bowl kickers and they all had bad stretches at times. Missing three extra points is weird. Missing all the deep kicks when he has a monster leg and has been good on those before is weird. Everything is tiny sample sizes with these guys. Bad today, great tomorrow. You’ll have to pray to the football gods on kicking matters because I can’t solve that one.

@dantaylor26 What did Chris Reed do to the coaching staff to be on the bench this long?

It’s not just that he’s on the bench — he’s a career backup — it’s that he’s not even active. That’s strange. If I had to take a complete guess, I’d say that it might have something to do with the injury he had in training camp. Or maybe he’s just been a bad fit. Past results don’t guarantee future success. But otherwise I don’t know and the former coach isn’t here to be really blunt about what’s happening.

@JoeSebesta I know we're still in the middle of the season, however, how does this current Vikings roster compare to the Chiefs roster before they drafted Patrick Mahomes?

I feel like you are strongly suggesting the Vikings draft a QB after this year. Kansas City was pretty similar in 2016. They went 12-4, partly helped by creating the most turnovers in the NFL. They were a middling overall offense and defense but did have great weapons in Hill/Kelce and had aging players on defense like Eric Berry and Tamba Hali. There’s some comparisons here, yeah.

@terryrheault Hi Matthew. A different/unique question for you. Are you a gamer, and if so, do you play Madden? I feel like the best Madden games are years, even decades, in the past. Seems like recent versions are focused on pay-to-win, Madden Ultimate Team nonsense. NFL2K5 on PS2 was better.

I don’t really play Madden much anymore but I used to play non-stop as a teenager. I still go back and flip on the N64 versions. I couldn’t agree more with your assessment. The older games seemed to push the envelope every year, adding offseason drills to improve players or NFL2K’s halftime show and reimagined gameplay where you could better command running fast/medium/slow. You could create plays on Madden ‘02 but you can’t do it now? That’s a disservice to the youth. They could do so much better.

@carli_tu why do you think Detroit traded a good TE within the division? Speculation…which TE will be on the 2023 season?

I think Detroit feels like it’s on such a different timeline than the Vikings that they aren’t concerned with trading a good player to a division opponent if it suits their long-term needs. Hockenson will be here in 2023 because he’s under contract. Irv Smith Jr. is a virtual lock to go elsewhere. Johnny Mundt is gonna be around too. They like him.

@LavergneRene Do you think we could see Booth take over for Sullivan soon? Or when do you thinks we could see more out of Booth?

I don’t see that happening unless they have been training Booth on the nickel spot behind the scenes. Booth has never played nickel and it’s an entirely different position from the outside. I’m not even sure what their in-game answer would be if Sullivan got hurt. They would probably have to move Peterson inside because he is experienced enough to play any spot.

@alrmpls What has the greatest likelihood of being true: Danielle Hunter is on the Vikings roster next year, Adam Thielen is on the Vikings roster next year, or Kliff Kingsbury owns a pair of tube socks?

Danielle is very likely to be a Viking next year. He doesn’t have the same sack numbers as the past but PFF is grading him as the 13th best edge rusher in the league right now and he’s top 20 in pressures. His contract is set up to negotiate an extension because if they cut or trade him before June 1 it’s going to cost them $18 million in dead cap. Thielen will very likely be on the team next year too for the same reason. The ESPN receiver stats still show Thielen as a top 30 receiver and so do the PFF grades. He’s basically the same older version as Boldin or Fitzgerald. Still effective, just not as explosive.

@DarrickMoren TJ Hockenson seems to be a positive addition in the run game, passing game and blocking along the O line. Where does he make the biggest impact?

At least by the PFF numbers, I wouldn’t expect him to be a difference maker in the blocking game. He’s been well below average in run and pass blocking for the majority of his career. Hockenson is a playmaker with the ball in his hands and he catches what you throw at him. Having a guy who turns a checkdown into a first down can be really darn helpful with Jefferson forcing defenses to play everyone back 20 yards.

@hurley2112 What are our kicker options? Do we keep Joseph?

They are likely going to keep Joseph unless the wheels come off. Chasing your tail with kickers is pretty dangerous. And all of his misses are 50+ this year… he was 7-for-9 from deep in 2021, so he is capable. As long as he doesn’t have a game-losing field goal then the issue won’t be under a microscope but if it continues to go sideways in the coming weeks they might have to make a change. For his career he’s still 82% field goals and 89% extra points. The league average is 85% field goals and 95%. He needs to be better.

@Skol_Doc a recent bleacher report mock draft had the Vikings taking Florida qb Anthony Richardson n the late 1st rnd. I think it makes a lot of sense to pick a qb who falls in the 1st rnd with JJ and hock set to get paid. Let’s say the Vikings win one playoff game: Would you trade Kirk this off-season in that scenario and have a rookie play in 2023, or would you let Kirk finish out the contract and have the rookie learn on the bench?

Extreme Allen Iverson voice: We’re talking about mock drafts? Not a game. Not a game. Not the game that you all should be dying for. Mock drafts. Mock drafts.

I think it would be hard, if not impossible, to trade Cousins if they win 12 games. But Anthony Richardson is the type of QB who has incredible physical skill but isn’t a finished product. He could sit on the bench for a year while Cousins plays out the rest of his deal. That’s the only way a QB happens in the draft (and I think that’s the right approach if you can pick someone of Richardson’s caliber).

But also, we’re talking about mock drafts? In November when the team is leading the division by a mile and going into an enormous stretch. Mock drafts. Mock drafts.

I’m not saying that it isn’t an interesting subject but the first mock draft from last November that I found had Carson Strong being picked 13th overall. Carson Strong went undrafted.

@TheWizardofWasz Do you think it’s possible the Vikings are not planning to draft a young QB, and instead trying to make the offense and rest of the team as attractive as possible for a potentially disgruntled veteran/FA QB?

I’ve long wondered if some of you guys enjoy the offseason more than the regular season. I don’t blame you because I used to simulate seasons on Madden to do the team building parts all the time. With that said, they are 6-1, man. I haven’t the slightest clue what they are going to do in March. There’s so many potential paths at the QB position, including everything from trading up to take somebody to a Viking-For-Life extension for Cousins to getting another veteran QB. They didn’t trade for TJ Hockenson to attract Cason Wentz here in 2023. They traded for him to try to win a Super Bowl right now.