Friday Mailbag: A suddenly big game

The Vikings face the Colts with a lot on the line

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday folks. Big game, aye? Let’s dive into your questions and takes….

Fernando… How do the Vikings get Addison and more importantly Jefferson more snaps? It seems like the team is less explosive.

Justin said something interesting at the podium today about this. He suggested that KOC is going to simplify things on offense. Of course, when we asked what that meant, Jefferson couldn’t exactly go into great detail and give away the game plan but I think we can put two and two together here. They need to get the ball into the hands of playmakers quickly and sustain drives. Maybe make things easier for Darnold when it comes to reads so he isn’t hanging onto the ball and hitching extra times (as KOC said in his Wednesday presser).

In 2022, Kirk threw 243 passes on first downs. Darnold has only thrown 62 so far. That’s 14 per game versus 8. That’s a good place to start. Aaron Jones is averaging 4.9 yards per carry on first down, which is great, but Darnold has a 121.5 rating and only five sacks on first down. He only has a 92.8 rating on third down and only five first downs on 19 attempts on third-and-long.

Darnold also said he wanted to “get back to playing point guard.” I feel like his mentality was fantastic in the first couple games about getting the ball out quickly and he started to hang onto it more as they went along and take more sacks. The short passing game the last two weeks has been successful, keep rolling it out until opponents have to pay attention to it and then… bang.

Ralph… Since the Vikings go from 2000s Patriots in the 1st qtr to 2020s Patriots in the 2nd quarter. Should instead of holding up 4 fingers at start of 4th quarter, should the Vikings look at holding up 2 fingers at start of second?

The difference is pretty wild. Darnold has a 143.3 rating in the first quarter and 87.9 in the third quarter. But I think the “KOC can’t adjust” or “KOC can’t call plays outside of the opening script” is pretty bogus. First of all, that’s because the opening script isn’t what people think it is. The play caller isn’t just reading off a pre-planned list and doing no other thinking about the play calls. It’s an outline, not a set of plays he has ready that they won’t deviate from.

Also, I checked the 2022-present stats for the Vikings by quarter and here’s what I got:

First quarter: 4.3 yards per play, 22 TD, 10 FG

Second quarter: 4.5 yards per play, 30 TD, 21 FG

Third quarter: 4.2 yards per play, 22 TD, 8 FG

Fourth quarter: 4.1 yards per play (with QB kneels removed), 30 TD, 23 FG

Doesn’t seem like there’s much of a trend there and if there is then the second quarter is their best in yards per play and nearly identical to their best in scoring.

Small sample sizes, my friends, small sample sizes.

Paul… Sam Darnold has settled in to who he really is as a QB (not an MVP candidate but more of a game manager with upside). We also know that JJ McCarthy is the future. Is there any scenario where we keep Sam another year at $15-20M and approach 2025 the same way we originally approached 2024…ie bring JJ along as the early back up and eventually hand him the reins when he’s ready?

Nah. If Sam continues to play like this, he will be earning $40 million next year. Last year Baker Mayfield went 9-8 with 28 TD 10 INT and a 94.6 QB rating and signed a three-year, $100 million deal with $40 million guaranteed. There’s no way that Darnold would take half that to play for a team that was just letting him hang around until they can put in the QB they really like. NFL teams are out here playing Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew, Joe Flacco, Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton etc. If there is a chance to get a guy who has proven he can play this well, there will be 5-7 teams calling him at least, maybe more.

Ben… Richardson’s benching had to be more about him “tapping out” than his play right??

He had a 57.2 QB rating and went 10-for-32 against a division rival. That’s pretty tough to overcome. Tim Tebow had a 75.3 career rating. The tap out was probably a final straw. You can’t lose the trust of the team like that. I’m sure he was absolutely gassed but… call a timeout or check to a handoff or anything except that. The team needs its leader. It was just an immature thing to do. That’s the thing, Richardson is the same age as the QBs who are going to get drafted in 2025, he needs time to learn how to do this. Teams just do not have the patience do that, which is sad because guys like Sam Darnold get left out to dry.

Chuck A… Do we think the pre-snap penalty problems are fixed? Because this simply has to be better if the team wants to be a real contender, imo.

The fact that those have been a three year struggle under KOC makes me wonder if it’s possible to fix it. I do think that part of what Jefferson said about simplifying might be about cutting down on all the pre-snap stuff that Darnold has to handle and cuts down possibly on the verbiage. I’m with you on the overall sentiment. The margins are so thin between winning and losing, they can’t be killing drives repeatedly by not getting the snap off or lining up correctly.

Coach Z In BC…. Speaking of over reactions from Vikings fans, how about the Athletic saying the Ravens should trade Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry?

I didn’t see that. Was it some sort of gag? It seems like Vikings fans had gotten so high on the 5-0 start that they felt like the football was pulled out from under Charlie Brown again when they lost the last two games. Nobody quite does “here we go again” like Vikings fans. I don’t think the season has to be derailed by this. Last year the Chiefs lost two in a row and 49ers lost three games in a row. It’s the nature of the beast that a team ran run into a bad matchup or tough travel or short week and have stuff go wrong.

I do think the weaknesses that were hovering against against Green Bay and the Jets really stood out in these two games, which made the reaction stronger. But it’s a long season. There’s more games remaining than they have played so far and they’ve had one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL. I stand more along the lines of waiting to see what happens over these next four game before we make a real declaration about this team. If they are sitting at 8-3 by the end of November, it’s going to be pretty tough to argue with that. If they’re 6-5, yeah, they’re in trouble.

Robert S… With Hockenson coming back from his ACL just in time for Darrisaw to leave with his, I'm so troubled by this aspect of player safety, which destroys seasons and puts players through hell. Is the NFL seriously addressing the issue at all, in terms of equipment of some type? Or is that just not really a possibility?

What more can they do? A guy fell on Darrisaw’s knee. That could have happened in flag football. It’s frustrating that so many players get hurt every year and it feels like there has been a pretty big uptick from years ago in ACL injuries but there isn’t a darn thing anyone can do about that. The players claim that more real grass would help yet there isn’t great evidence that backs up that idea.

If you watch any game from 2024 and then go back and watch 2001, you’ll notice how much the NFL actually has slowly done to make the game safer. Receivers don’t get demolished anymore, you can’t horse collar tackle or throw the quarterback across the field. Most of that has been good overall, even if people complain about it.

Kyle S… With the additions of Cam Akers and Cam Robinson, which Cam league wide would improve the Vikings the most?

It only makes sense that they hire Cam Cameron ASAP.

Warren P… Making the big assumption the Vikings are big buyers at the deadline - I.e 25 and/or 26 first round pick would you rather see them go with a CB or interior D?

In my opinion if you can swing it I would go DI. From a short term view probably the wrong choice (I think CB room is a lot less sturdy than DL) but looking at the “championship window” there will likely be more CBs available on the FA market. Looking at PFF current top 50 potential FA CBs are as follows: 1) D.J Reed 2) Chavarius Ward 3) Rasul Douglas 4)Mike Hilton 5)Asante Samuel Versus a much shorter potential DI list including Alim McNeil and Calais Campbell (crazy he’s still in top 50) Also it wouldn’t be a PI thread if I didn’t mention… lots of interesting IoL on that list.

Only one or two of those guys is actually attainable. That’s the thing about the trade deadline: There are only a few teams that are actually far enough out of the race to be sellers. Campbell is one of those guys that I could see being available because Miami is out of the race and he’s old. They need to think about next year.

I’m looking at Carolina, Cleveland (if they lose this week), New England, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Jacksonville and the New York Giants as really the only true sellers. Maybe Dallas, Cincinnati and New Orleans if they lose. So we’re talking about players like Denzel Ward, Greg Newsome, Jaycee Horn, Adam Butler, Nate Hobbs, maybe Jadeveon Clowney and a few others that they could go after and that’s about it. Maybe there will be something shocking, we’ll have to see.

Jon D… Far too early and daft to see this as a “win or bust” game, but am I overthinking it that this is a really important game for the direction of the rest of the season, and with greater consequences depending on the result than any other game so far?

Oh, it’s a huge game. If they advance to 6-2 with Jacksonville, Tennessee and Chicago coming up then we’re talking about getting on a hot run here and being in a great spot when the tougher games come along at the end of the year. Plus they have four games at US Bank Stadium in December. There would be a great chance of winning 11+ at that point. If they drop to 5-3, then it’s going to be a grind to double digits. Not only because of the schedule but also because they can’t be trusted to take care of business when they face teams like Chicago, Arizona, Seattle etc. down the road.

This will have a big impact on how the rest of the season plays out.

Skol Viking 44… Is there mounting evidence against using prevent defenses to protect a late game lead?  It seems to make more sense to bring extra pass rushers, like the Lions did to finish off the Vikings in week 7.