Friday mailbag: A should-win game in Carolina
Vikings fans want to talk future already but the Vikings' season is far from over if they beat the Panthers
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By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday everyone. Lots of good questions today so let’s dive in…
Bradley P… With the state of the Vikings (some elite players, a lot of awful ones) is next year the correct year to draft a quarterback? Should they hit the hard reset button next year, gather as many draft picks as possible and tank next year to draft one in 2025?
I can’t think of a better situation to draft a quarterback than the Vikings right now. How many teams picked QBs and gave them the best receiver on earth, two elite tackles, a top-10 tight end and a first-round pick receiver who looks like a budding star? The hard part is done. It took the Dolphins trading for Tyreek and drafting Waddle to get weapons around Tua. It took the Rams getting lucky on the Kupp pick and signing Robert Woods and Andrew Whitworth to get a great group around Goff. This is like Dak Prescott joining that Cowboys team that had Dez, Zeke and an elite O-line.
Not to mention the QB class has a bunch of high quality prospects at QB. Why wait? Get a quarterback, spend the cap space in free agency to build the defense and then pray that they hit on some picks on the defensive side and this can be a legit contender by 2025 if it goes the right way.
Joel… It is becoming obvious that the Wilf’s will never embrace a rebuild, which hurts our odds of ever drafting a franchise QB. So am I wrong to pull for them to luck into a catastrophic season--seeing as they will never do it intentionally?
Yes and no. The Wilfs let them tear apart a team that went 13-4, which seems pretty notable. I’d bet 95% of teams that have ever won 13 games have brought back almost their complete roster the next season. The Vikings got rid of guys that totaled 18 Pro Bowls. That’s as close as it gets to a full rebuild. Are you wrong? No. Caleb Williams is special. But with so many good prospects in the 2024 draft, it’s not a calamity if they draft in the middle of the first round. It’s not always the No. 1 QB drafted who becomes the best. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes were not the first guys off the board. Neither was Justin Herbert or Jalen Hurts.
We just have to see where it goes. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make their way back to the “in the hunt” graphic by the bye week. It’s not going to ruin the franchise’s odds of being good in the future if that happens.
Amdrew…A “hidden” disappointment is the season that Harrison Smith is having thus far. Last year everyone except the DC was frustrated watching DBs generally, but Harry especially, sit back and watch WRs catch balls 8 yards in front of them. He was supposed to be put in position to make plays this year, and while 3 games is a small sample, he has zero INTs, sacks, QB hits, fumble recoveries or passes defenced. He has 1 forced fumble and 9 solo tackles. What’s your explanation—that 34 is old for a safety, or is Flores wasting him?
So far he hasn’t gotten home on the blitzes, which has a lot to do with Herbert getting the ball out in 2.17 seconds when blited during the Chargers game. PFF has him only being targeted two times all year, which makes me think opponents are going after the less experienced guys rather than testing him. I think you’re right in pointing out the sample size being very small. I need to see more.
The other thing that comes to mind is that safety is a position that feeds off the rest of the defense — it’s an effect not a cause, if that makes sense. If you have a great defensive line and cornerbacks, a good safety can really cause havoc. If the opponent is avoiding throwing at Xavier Rhodes, Harrison can be on the other side making plays. Or if Everson Griffen is getting to the QB in two seconds, the QB doesn’t have much time to process where Smith is and makes mistakes. But if there isn’t much pressure and they aren’t afraid of any of the corners, it’s harder to make an impact.
Bradley P… What does the record have to be to hit the reset button?
What is the “reset button?” They already got rid of Za’Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, Eric Kendricks, Patrick Peterson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. There’s like four guys on this team that are over 30 and one of them is the long snapper. That button was hit this offseason, which is why there are so many holes on the roster. What I’m guessing you mean is: What does the record have to be in order to trade Kirk and Danielle. That is probably like 1-6. If they lose to Carolina, lose to KC, beat Chicago, lose to the 49ers, it’s hard to justify carrying on unless there’s no interest around the league in trading for a QB mid-season (or if Kirk doesn’t want to be traded).
Jon… Question: What is the percent chance the Vikings trade Cousins before the 2023 trade deadline?
If they win it’s like 5% and if they lose it’s probably 25%. I’m still having a tough time seeing it. By the time the Vikings would be bad enough to do it the Jets will also be out of the playoff race and there wouldn’t be any point. Maybe the Falcons come calling? Other than those two teams, who else would be interested? It’s not like he can be locked in as a long-term option since he’s a free agent after the year. It would be a true rental situation. I tend to think KOC and the Wilfs will want to fight it out until the end either way.
Michael… Will the defense improve this year even though there is a lack of talent or should we expect them to only improve through the draft and free agency?
Yes, they will. Over the next four weeks they face two horrible offenses and two great offenses but after that there’s all sorts of meh. Their next run of quarterbacks after that are: Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder (Taylor Heinicke?), Derek Carr (maybe?), Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Jimmy G (maybe?). Lots of opportunities for Flores’s blitzes to cause turnovers. The problem is that it might be too little too late after the start of the season and it won’t matter if they’re smacking around Fields. The defense is going to improve when they have cap space to improve it and when they hit on a single dang draft pick.
It bears repeating the insane bad run of defensive drafting they have been on. Since 2016 they have picked 34 defensive players and they have Cam Bynum, Josh Metellus and Akayleb Evans as starters from that group. That’s astonishingly bad. It’s not going to be an overnight fix but Cincinnati was able to rebuild their defense through free agency after getting Burrow and the Vikings are going to have to do the same thing.
Christian… Although Kirk Cousins is having a good statistical year. It seems he is hesitant, is there any data to understand if Cousins is taking longer to get the pass out his hand? I have mentioned to friends that it seems he is either not trusting his eyes or not trusting his arm. Is there any information that we can deem about where he is throwing the ball? For example he is avoiding throwing the ball between Safeties and Corners. It seems all the big plays are coming down the middle and not the sidelines.
There might be something to that. His average time to throw is 2.88 seconds, which is 21st in the NFL. Last year he was 13th at 2.71 per drop-back (per PFF). I don’t think it’s a matter of not trusting his arm or eyes, rather that KOC’s offense is designed to hit on chunk plays with them running a lot of intermediate routes, which means sticking with reads longer to see if they come open. (It also plays into why the Vikings’ OL has graded well but he’s been hit a lot). This isn’t really a new Kirk thing though. I remember when Matt LaFleur was asked about Kirk’s INTs in 2020 and he said that Kirk has to throw with a lot of anticipation, which sometimes led to picks but it could be applied to other things too, right? He has to anticipate when routes are coming open and if he doesn’t see it early he will have to come off it, sometimes awkwardly.
The offense as a whole has great numbers but they’re only 17th in scoring percentage. The operation has still been — as Alec Lewis of The Athletic put it — choppy.
@daddy4547 would you use one year of draft picks to work on the trenches if all the other positions were serviceable?
Nothing tops the quarterback position. If they had some other answer (Kyler Murray???) then yes the entire draft needs to be dedicated to the defensive line. I’m curious to see how Dalton Risner works out and whether he could be a multi year option for them at right guard. They haven’t drafted a defensive linemen high since, what, Sharrif Floyd? Usually that’s where you get the beasts. Look no further than Carolina with Burns and Brown.
Kye… I have read the trade scenarios, let Kirk walk and draft a QB scenarios. What I haven't read is re-sign Kirk scenarios. Specifically, if we could get Kirk to agree to 45m for 2024 and 2025 (no guaranteed he agrees) and we re-signed Jefferson to a long term deal, how much cap space can we free up this season to roll over onto 2024's cap to maybe pay for it? Is it even possible?
The reason you haven’t seen re-sign Kirk scenarios is because there isn’t much of an argument for doing that. Let’s say they miss the playoffs this year, it’ll be six years with one playoff win and…you’re signing up for more of that? For $45 million? And somehow they’re going to work a JJ and Darrisaw extension around it and rebuild major parts of the defense? It’s really hard to see how that would all work.
To your question, OverTheCap.com has them at around $9.5 million to roll over to next year’s cap, which cuts into the $28 dead cap space he’s going to leave when he hits free agency next year. They need all they can get for the other extensions and money to spend on the D-line in free agency.
Producer Dave How many Super Bowl winning teams in the last 20 years or so went through a complete tear it all down first rebuild?
The problem with doing anything by championships is Tom Brady. If you try to analyze what equated to a championship over the last 20 years the answer is nothing because Brady won the dang Super Bowl seven times. Plus, Mahomes now has two of the last three so everyone gets to look stupid because of him.
It’s probably better to look at which franchises created a team that was good over multiple years and gave itself a chance to be in the mix for a Super Bowl. Still, you don’t have to look particularly far to find Super Bowl-related examples.
— The Philadelphia Eagles tore down the 2017 team and won four games in 2020 and then used draft capital and a rookie QB contract to rebuild.
— The Rams drafted No. 1 overall and were terrible with Goff as a rookie before hiring McVay and spending a boat load on free agents to rebuild. They had the No. 1 offense in ‘17, got to the SB in ‘18 and won it in ‘21.
— The Bengals completely tanked and went to the SB one year later.
— The Dolphins tanked for Tua. That looks pretty good.
— The 49ers went 2-14 in 2016, 6-10 in 2017 and 4-12 in 2018.
— The Lions might not win the SB but they are pretty good now after completely tanking
— The Colts went 33-15 and went to the AFC Championship after sucking for Luck
— Even the Browns and Cardinals, semi-failed tanks, had 11-win seasons and botched really good opportunities (the Browns might still be good this year)
— Mitch Trubisky had the Bears one kick away from a playoff win with a sick roster after the Bears went 3-13 and 5-11 in back-to-back years.
There are plenty of examples of it not working. If you draft Trubisky instead of Mahomes or Zach Wilson/Sam Darnold or your team building is bad or your culture is horrendous etc. it’s going to derail a rebuild. But it’s a route that has put a lot of teams in position to compete for Super Bowls if the right QB is picked and the rest of the team is build well. Nothing is ever 100%.
Cody…. The Vikings look like the better team this week, are their any matchups we should be watching for where the Panthers have a clear advantage?
Definitely on the interior of the defensive like. Derrick Brown is a monster. He’s the seventh ranked defensive tackle by PFF this year and was seventh last year with 40 pressures. Brian Burns is a great edge rusher, though those guys are usually mitigated by Darrisaw and O’Neil. It’s literally the only area where the Panthers have an edge. Their offensive line is terrible, their receivers are (with respect to Thielen) terrible, their running game is terrible, their secondary is banged up and terrible and they even rate badly on special teams. The Vikings need to smash somebody for once and the Panthers could be/should be that team.
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