Friday Mailbag: A million options at QB
Vikings fans have all sorts of ideas of how the Vikings can land their next franchise quarterback
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By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone! I hope you’re enjoying the NCAA tournaments and opening of the UFL (check it out if you haven’t). We’re still waiting on some type of move by the Vikings but I suggest leaning into the entertainment of speculation season. I’ve had a few people write to say that they are getting antsy waiting around. Lean into it! You don’t get this type of offseason all the time.
Anyway, let’s get into your questions….
Alan… What is going to be the biggest draft surprise in the top 5 picks?
This could be blown up five minutes after it publishes but I’ll go for it anyway…. the biggest surprise might be that nobody trades out. The order goes: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers and we all sit there wondering if the Vikings are going to trade up with the Giants or Titans to get McCarthy or sit at No. 11.
My working theory is that the Vikings want to see if Washington takes Maye or Daniels before they make the big move. Of course, it’s only a theory.
Brian_H… Yesterday morning I was planning on asking "Would it make sense for the Vikings to use some newfound cap space to bring back the miracle man?" In the wake of the Diggs trade yesterday, is there a similar move the Vikings would be wise to make to further enhance the weapons available to a rookie quarterback?
Maybe I’m missing somebody but I’m not seeing anyone at wide receiver that would make sense for a trade. All the unhappy receivers (Dionte Johnson, Jerry Jeudy, Stefon Diggs) already have landing spots. There are a few more guys available on the free agent market like Hunter Renfrow, DJ Chark and Tyler Boyd. Other than that things are pretty sparce. They probably need to draft someone in the fourth round to compete with Trent Sherfield, Jalen Nailor. Brandon Powell etc. for WR3.
Either at the trade deadline or next year is when the Vikings can really dive into the disgruntled player trade market. Maybe DT Derrick Brown will force his way out of Carolina or something.
Pickle Enjoyer… Do you think we're missing the obvious thing that's happening: Drake Maye is almost as good as Caleb Williams and he's getting picked 2nd overall? Feels like we're in peak Silly Season right now and people are galaxy-braining the draft.
Mr. Enjoyer, you very well could be right. That’s the thing about the draft: Sometimes we talk ourselves blue in the face with scenarios and then things happen exactly as we expect and it’s relatively unsurprising and other times we are completely shocked. I never would have thought Trevon Walker would go over Aidan Hutchinson. Nobody saw Trey Lance as San Francisco’s darling coming. There have been huge trades at the top and there have been years of total quiet. Who knows which this is going to be.
If we were putting odds on it, I’d go with something like 55% that you’re right and Williams and Maye will go first and second off the board and the Patriots take Daniels and then someone (Vikings?) moves up to take McCarthy. But that’s all based on guesswork and what the mock draft community is thinking.
That’s why I’m enjoying all this chatter. There are so many ways it could play out.
Patrick G…. are there any potential moves to make to improve the interior offensive line? Ingram looked decent the 2nd half of last year, bradbury was just OK, but still gets run over by big DT's and LG is still a huge question mark. Brandel has really only played tackle, do you think his contract was intended to make him a starting guard, or for him to be the primary swing tackle?
Brandel is a guard now. The contract is in the ballpark of a backup but he’s legitimately in the mix to start, which is a scary proposition because of his lack of experience. The Vikings haven’t had great recent luck with guys moving from tackle to guard. I think they wanted to get into the guard market but the prices were through the roof in free agency. Now the best plan of action is to have Brandel compete with Dan Feeney and likely another free agent who they grab a little later in the offseason. Maybe they pick somebody in the fourth round too and just have an open competition. It’s not ideal.
Eric… Where are you at on Seifert’s contingency *if* the Vikings are unable trade up for “their” guy(s) instead going BPA with both picks & then giving it another go with the ‘25 qb class?
It would be totally shocking if they come out of this draft without a first-round quarterback… and a complete disaster. I don’t know what else to say about that scenario. How would it make any sense for the Vikings to seemingly set up their entire timeline around this QB class and then bail? Sam Darnold is only a great idea as a bridge QB, not as an actual answer. How would the position be any better next year than right now?
I also think Seifert’s words got twisted a bit by aggregators on social media because those people are desperate to make things sound more controversial than they actually are.
Patrick G… Question about Risner's poor run block grade last year. you hear a lot about quarterbacks making their own pressure, and how that can impact a lineman's lineman pass blocking grades. is there a similar phenomenon in the run game, with RB's not picking the right lane/hole that could impact a lineman's run blocking grade?
If anything it’s the other way around. Offensive lines play a huge role in the performance of the running back. I remember Eric Eager did a study on perfectly blocked plays and found there was a huge gap between having all five guys block correctly and even one lineman making a mistake. And PFF would still grade mistakes by the O-line even if the running back made it right. I’ll give you an example: Against Cincinnati the Vikings’ O-line graded poorly in run blocking but Ty Chandler had some special plays in the game despite mediocre blocking.
Risner also has a huge sample size of being a bad run blocker. His career grades: 50.0, 53.4, 63.2, 53.7 and 60.3.
I get the impression from his tweets that Risner thinks he’s worth top dollar among guards and nobody in the NFL thinks so. That’s definitely not because of his pass blocking because he’s clearly solid there.
john OG… Hey Matthew, i am perplexed by the undervaluing of Michael Penix. I watched many of his games this year and that guy can throw the ball! What is driving this consensus that he is a late 1st or 2nd rd pick. I understand past injuries, but is that all it is? To me he's going to be a really good QB in a pass first offence like the Vikings.
Draft stock is a funny thing, right? The way reporters and analysts put things out there it feels like there’s a draft stock roller coaster for some guys where it’s flying up and down by the day. I don’t really think that’s how it actually works in most cases. By the end of their college season the scouts have a pretty good sense for where everyone stands. The Vikings must have some intrigue with Penix Jr. because they (per Jordan Schultz) sent the whole squad out to meet with him. That means, to me, he’s at very least a legitimate prospect for a first-round pick.
I’ve always been on board with Penix Jr. as an idea for the Vikings. He can sling it and he’s got great poise. That’s a good place to start. I don’t think he’ll ever be Michael Vick but it does seem there’s more playmaking and scrambling in him than he did at Washington.
Chris… It's far-fetched, but what would you think of a move to trade up to 5 for McCarthy, or whichever of the top 4 QBs is still there, using pick 23, the '25 1st and (probably) the '26 1st so they can keep pick 11 this year for defensive line like Laiatu Latu or Byron Murphy II? The top-10 is expected to be very heavy on offense, so pick 11 is in a unique spot to get one of the top 2 or 3 defensive prospect. They likely won't have as good a chance in the next few drafts to get that talented of a player, and have the cap space in the future to compensate for the lost picks. I'm mostly basing it on what the Texans just did getting their QB of the future and a great pass rusher in the same draft and how quickly that turned their franchise around.
Very creative and I like it. If they were to walk away from the first round with their quarterback and the No. 1 or 2 defensive player in the entire draft, that would be an A+ outcome, even if they had to give up extra value down the road. The only problem with that scenario is that Los Angeles is going to want the No. 11 pick. That is by far the biggest bargaining chip they have. Otherwise you’d be asking the Chargers to drop from No. 5 to 23. That’s an enormous dip in the quality of prospect, especially when you consider that Nabers or Alt will be there. Maybe there’s a version of this where they keep the 23rd pick instead.
I would still guess that any trade they make would have to include both firsts because that’s their ace in the hole vs. other teams who want to make the move.
Devin R… Why are people so against trading the 2025 first to move up? They spent two 2nds to acquire one of their firsts, so all in all it would be spending two firsts and two seconds to move up twice for a QB. This is the same amount of draft capital Buffalo gave up while moving up twice to get Josh Allen. If the guy they want is available, spend the picks!
If the Vikings’ roster was in a miserable spot with their key positions then I’d be against giving up that much but they have great weapons, great tackles and now two quality pass rushers, one of whom is on a four-year deal. It’s not like this roster is in the same spot as New England. The Vikings are in perfect position to trade a big haul without it having a major impact on the bigger picture, similar to the way San Francisco gave up firsts for Lance and it didn’t hurt them. The amount of salary cap space is also a factor too. They can spend to fill holes going forward rather than drafting.
Patrick G… if you could place odds on Drake Maye being the next Josh Allen or the next Mitch Trubisky, where would you place the percentage chance of each? same with JJ McCarthy being the next Justin Herbert or the next Daniel Jones?
It’s hard to look at a prospect and say that they are either a top three QB in the league or a backup. It’s more of a range of outcomes and the chances that guy hits in a certain range. I’d say there’s only about a 10% that even the most talented prospect becomes Josh Allen. There’s a larger chance, say 25% that he becomes something a level below that like Matthew Stafford or Justin Herbert. Another 25% he’s closer to Baker Mayfield or Ryan Tannehill and the other 35% that he’s not good at all.
For McCarthy, it feels like the Stafford/Herbert range of out comes and above are a little lower but the odds that he’s at least Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo are higher. Maybe the distribution is 5% elite, 15% next level, 40% quality mid, 20% lower mid (like Daniel Jones) and 20% total bust.
But that’s just my feel for it right now. When we’re talking about guys that are 21 years old, things can change quickly. Nobody would have said Dak Prescott would be leading No. 1 offenses when he came out and he’s my top end comp for McCarthy so I dunno.
Travis C… Lot of NE Twitter seems to say it’ll take 3 1sts and Jefferson to move up to 3. Of course that’s a ridiculous trade, but say Maye is there, what’s the most you would be willing to give up?
If it takes three first-round picks and Jefferson then it’s not happening. The most I’d be willing to do is 11, 23 and 2025 first-rounder. Maybe toss in some late-round picks to sweeten the pot. If there had to be a player involved, No. 11, 2025 first and Addison maybe but probably not.
Kyle S… Why hasn’t the NFL created a developmental league, at least since NFL Europe, or partnered with a league like the UFL for developmental purposes?
I love the idea, especially for QBs like Jaren Hall, but there’s lots of potential pitfalls. Does that mean the NFL team has to pay the players who are under contract? Do players *have* to play if they are told? If not I’m not sure how many players would say yes unless they got the same wage as they were getting from the NFL. Adding milage to players’ bodies when there’s only a finite number of plays over a career seems a tad risky. Different coaching from what the NFL team wants could be an issue. Things are just different now than they were in NFL Europe.
Jeff... This week you suggested that you favor trading the farm for the #3 pick to draft Drake Maye. They wouldn't do that unless KOC was completely sold on him, but what if they make the trade only to have Washington grab him? Doesn't that mean he has to be just as sold on Daniels to make this trade? Or do they wait for Washington to pick before making that deal? My gut tells me they need a plan B - what do you think that might be? I'm hoping it's Penix at 11
As much as I want this trade to happen ASAP for entertainment purposes, I am thinking that the most likely scenario is that they wait until draft night to see if Washington takes Daniels or Maye. If they take Daniels, then the hammer drops and they send a boat load of picks to New England and if Washington takes Maye then it’s onto Plan B. Is that plan B trading to No. 4 or 5 for McCarthy or waiting to see if he makes it to 11 or taking Penix Jr. at 11? Would somebody else trade ahead of them to get Penix Jr.? I think Tennessee would likely do something with the Vikings to let them get to No. 7.
The only thing I’m sure about is that they won’t have one plan and then panic if it doesn’t work out. That’s what this draft class provides: Backup options.
Christos… The more I read and watch QB breakdowns and scouting reports the more I am really interested in Michael Penix for the Vikings. Trust me I will be happy with what ever they choose. But I believe the ones I would most like to see is Maye or Penix. Especially if it means we do not need to trade up. Although I would think not to risk it with Penix and if they like him just take him at 11.
I could be way off base in my appreciation for Penix Jr. but I haven’t forgotten what the guy looked like playing football. Over the last two years he has 70 big-time throws to just 20 turnover-worthy plays and 16 sacks in over 1,100 drop-backs. That’s ridiculous stuff. He’s not some circus act with his arm either. He graded by PFF 90.9 when throwing between 11-20 yards through the air with a 118.5 QB rating and had a 91.3 grade on intermediate throws over the middle. The dude dominated on the field. If they take a guy who whipped the ball all over the place and crushed college football, it’s hard to feel down on that.
Sammyd2389…I’m not sure the Vikes are really as high on McCarthy or Penix as the draft analysts think. What are your thoughts on the Vikes wait until draft day to see what Washington does at 2? If Washington takes Daniels, they try to trade the farm for Maye at 3. If that doesn’t work out, they wait until 11 and draft Nix as their consolation prize. My thought is that there are two clear strategies: 1) Draft a high upside prospect and hope he is good enough for overcome the value of his second contract or 2) Draft a high floor guy who can come in and run the offense roughy the same level as Kirk, but at a fraction of the price, then let him walk after 4/5 years instead overpaying (avoid the Daniel Jones path). Your thoughts?
Nobody knows who they are high on. I’m not sure Kevin O’Connell is even going to tell his immediate family who he likes. So anybody acting confident about their guesses is selling you a load.
It makes the most sense to wait until Washington picks. The thing about Nix that keeps sticking out to me is that former QBs seem to like what they see. That might mean nothing, it might mean that the draft analysts focusing on raw tools are missing something in the way his mind works.
I believe you are correct that the two plans are either spend big on the guy that they think can be the centerpiece or spend less on a guy they believe can win with everything around him (that might not be a huge second contract QB).
Timothy G… Is there any chance the Vikings pass on signal callers at 11, 23 and try to use their two fourths or '25 assets to get back into RD 2/3 for a QB?
Oh, there’s a chance at just about everything, my dude. But if they pass on QBs at 11 and 23 and trade back into the second round to take Spencer Rattler, I’m going to think that they goofed up badly. The drop off in success rate from top-15 QBs to 2nd/3rd round is absolutely massive. There aren’t many Jalen Hurts’ out there.
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