Friday mailbag: 65-question edition (part 1)

We answer every possible question about the GM/HC searches and the QB future

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By Matthew Coller

Happy GM/coach search, everyone. In honor of these crazy times we’re living in, I decided to go totally nuts on the Friday Mailbag this week and answer all 65 questions that I got. Naturally, it all didn’t fit in one email, so there’s a Part 1 and Part 2 coming your way. So let’s dive right into it…

@WriterChurchill Once a GM/coach duo is hired, how quickly do you think they make a decision on QB? A day? A week? After a series of complex contract negotiations?

I’m assuming that one of the first questions asked in the interview process is: “What are you doing with the quarterback?” So the GM and the Wilfs will have a good idea about how they want to proceed by the time that person is officially announced for the job. Last year the Lions agreed to trade Matthew Stafford to the Rams just 15 days after Brad Holmes took over as their GM. If they are going to trade Cousins, phone calls will start going out/coming in right away. If they want to keep Cousins long term, negotiations with his agent would start pretty quickly. Last time he was extended it happened on the first day of free agency in March. If nothing happens through the free agency period, it’ll become very likely that the plan is to keep Cousins and draft a QB.

@GeofftheJohnson Do you think one way to characterize the reason for the ultimate failure of the Spielman/Zimmer regime is “played it too safe?” (e.g. Rick resigning Kirk/not taking a shot on a 1st round QB; Zim’s basic strategy for winning, etc.). Could the Wilfs thus look to hire risk takers?

That’s an interesting characterization. I might frame it like this: They didn’t see the big picture. They mostly drafted for immediate need and re-signed guys to big contracts because they drafted them and extended Cousins based on one wild card playoff win (Spielman said at the 2020 Combine that game vs. the Saints proved Cousins could win in the playoffs). It always felt like they weren’t capable of looking two or three steps ahead and they only saw what was right in front of them.

From a coaching standpoint, Zimmer wasn’t as terrible with strategy as Twitter might make it seem but he wasn’t sharp either. That’s Zimmer and the offensive side of the ball. He was exactly right with the type of offense that fit Cousins best. He was 100% accurate on the trend of the league toward play-action based offenses. And that general strategy took Kirk to career-best levels. However, it wasn’t always sharp. Always wanting his OC to run the ball more. Telling Kirk not to turn the ball over and then later telling him to let it fly. Never watching tape with Cousins until the last year. Right idea, just not sharp.

@LfcMay What’s been the funniest moment you’ve had with a player or coach in your journey thus far? Bonus points if it was a self inflicted D’oh.

Told this story on the podcast… in 2017 I wrote a story about Zimmer’s punting decisions. In my lead in to the question during our little reporter side session with him, I said something like, “Mike, on Madden I go for fourth down every time, why don’t you?” And he gave a solid answer about his thinking on fourth downs and then said, “I don’t play video games like that Game of Thrones.” Mike can be really funny.

One time Anthony Harris was using a foam roller on the floor and suddenly everyone gathered around Xavier Rhodes’ locker for a scrum and Anthony was caught in the middle on the floor with this vibrating foam thing. We just kinda stepped around him. At the end I said, “I’ve got the same thing in the top drawer at home.” Anthony said, “That’s pretty funny.” The players don’t often think we are funny.

Rhodes one time yelled out in the locker room that a player was going on IR. So reporters were like, “oh, really?” The next day, I asked Xavier if he had any more news to break. He responded with, “I didn’t really know, I was just asking.” I said: “I wouldn’t trust you anyway.” He said: “I wouldn’t trust me either!”

@BIG_dannn If a “full” rebuild happens and Kirk is traded Do you think KJO and ISM, along w/JJ, and Irv smith is enough in the passing game to move on from Thielen and try to maximize what we could get for him/ get the cap down?

That’s a tough one. If you give a rookie quarterback Jefferson/Thielen/Osborn (we’ll see on Smith-Marsette), that’s a pretty good setup. I looked at which rookie QBs have played the best since 2000 and it’s no surprise that players like RGIII, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson and Mac Jones had very good weapons to work with right off the bat. By the numbers, Thielen was still really good this year. There are so many defensive positions they also need to draft and spend on that it might be tough to replace him with someone as good at a better price. I don’t think Osborn or Smith-Marsette are ready to be a No. 2 that’s going to have anywhere near the impact of Thielen. It might depend on whether he wants to stay, though.

@headcoach21 I know the Vikings loss to the Lions was bad but do you think the Colts loss to the Jaguars at the end of the season was worse??

Yes, for a few reasons: The Colts were a better team than the Vikings. They finished the season 9th in offense and 9th in defense and an Expected Win-Loss of 11-6. They also got killed by the Jags. Dan Campbell’s Lions were spunky. The Jags were dead fish for the weeks leading up to the game against the Colts. Both of them are inexcusable losses but I’m not sure the Lions L really changed the Vikings’ fate. It sure did for the Colts. I wouldn’t have wanted to play them in the playoffs.

@90centmentalMN What have you learned about the players response to the lack of effort to get JJ a record (if hollow) he wanted. That is really sticking in my craw considering how Brady and Allen handled comparable (but money related) situations. Kirk failed in a leadership role there IMO.

Put it like this: If you don’t get the guy the record and your team is going to the playoffs, everyone will forget about it pretty quickly and move onto the postseason. When it’s the only nice thing that could have come out of that Bears game and the coach and QB fail to reward the best player on the team, it’s a cherry on top to a miserable year. With Cousins, same deal. If the Vikings won and won and won with him at QB, we’d be like, who cares? But to come out after the game and bemoan not getting the guy the record even though he has the ball in his hands, it’s another eyeroll moment. Brett Favre is getting Jefferson the football… or trying and throwing the worst interception. Either way, giving it a shot.

@headcoach21 What’s your percentage chance Cousins is traded this off-season?

I’ll go with 70% chance. If we look at every team as having a triangle of power: The GM, coach and QB, well, they already blew out the GM and coach. They have invested a ton of money into something that hasn’t worked. You can debate all day long about his QB stats but if you were spending $100 million of your money and you got zero division championships and one trip to the playoffs as the No. 6 seed, you wouldn’t be signing up for much more. The goal is to get the GM/coach/QB on the same page a la McDermott/Beane/Allen in Buffalo. Or at least have the QB be so good that nobody cares if you aren’t on the same page, i.e. Green Bay.

@NicholasMMiller Of the 8 GM candidates we know about so far, the oldest one is 42. What do you think this says about the search and the committee’s focus on long term success over immediate success with the state of the roster?

That’s a good observation, Nick. I think it also says that they felt the organization wasn’t cutting edge in recent years and I would agree with them. In business things like studying trends and using data to guide decision making are the standard. It seemed the Vikings fell behind that by making a lot of bad bets, whether it was signing two nose tackles or not going for it on fourth down at the right times. There’s also data points in how you treat people. That may sound weird but teams that are winning are working with players more, connecting on a personal level better and using a “collaborative” approach. Companies invest a ton in leadership for their management because they know that these things matter. I’d guess the Wilfs get that and they want somebody in charge who gets that too.

@alstrain Two future roster questions: 1. Was KJ Osborn’s emergence this year legit and sustainable going forward as a number 2 receiver? 2. It’ll be a tough pill to swallow, but if the Vikings want to move on from Thielen, what’s the best they can hope to get in a trade? 3rd rounder?

Yes, Osborn’s emergence is legit. Is he a No. 2 receiver? I’d pump those breaks. He’s a fifth-round talent and not the type of fifth-round talent like Stefon Diggs who dropped for other reasons. He’s maximizing everything he has to be a good No. 3. That says a lot about his character and work ethic but there are physical limitations that would make it tough to be a top guy. (He could prove me wrong, though!) If they were to trade Thielen, I’d guess a second or third. Broken Julio Jones got a second back. I would say, though, that the new GM might not want fans to be burning his new Minnetonka house to the ground on Day 1 because he traded Adam Thielen. That’s gotta be considered.

@DrewSikkink If the Wilfs hired you to head the GM/Coach search, what characteristics/qualifications would you value the most?

For the GM, I would want someone who understands what they can’t predict. You can’t know if a draft pick is going to be successful. You can know what positions will bring you the most value if they are successful. I want someone who’s willing to admit they got it wrong and fix it i.e. Josh Rosen to Kyler Murray rather than doubling down. I’m not sure it’s more complicated than that, though NFL teams have to make it seem that way so everyone knows they’re trying real hard at it.

For a coach, it’s all about the QB and red flags. Who’s going to form a bond with the next QB and do everything in their power to get the most out of that person? And what problems has the coaching candidate had in the past? If those problems include struggling to get along with people in his previous location, I’m out. I wouldn’t be knowledgeable enough to fully understand gameplanning but I’d want to study closely with other coaches the ability to gameplan. In the NFL, that’s what it’s all about: Can you manage the QB? Can you gameplan?

@smccullough5 Last year NFL wild card weekend was the best. Wall to Wall football for two days. Now the NFL is already messing with the TV schedule. What are your thoughts on the new schedule?

I did enjoy the back-to-back days of 10 hours straight. I’m not sure that I needed a Monday night game. As I think about it right now, my feeling is that it was a senseless decision. But on Monday night, I’ll be thinking: FOOTBALL!

@orangesuds Have you had a chance to watch Ted Lasso yet? I’m curious about your thoughts because the Lasso character feels like the anti-Zimmer in so many ways.

I haven’t watched Ted Lasso, unfortunately. I get pretty far behind on shows with the way the NFL season works. We watched Twilight Zone on Netflix last May/June and that was probably the last thing that I’ve binged. I’ll have to give it a look. Anyway, I’m somewhat familiar with the character. Sometimes it feels like football fans believe their head coach needs to be a scream-y lunatic to get the job done but I grew up watching Marv Levy, who was incredibly smart and very positive with his players. All sorts of different styles work but instilling confidence while still drawing the line for players and setting a standard seems to be pretty effective.

@smccullough5 What are the chances that some of the bigger (questionable?) contracts get cut or traded with a new GM and HC coming in, i.e. Cook, Smith, Thielen.

I’d be surprised if anyone of them are moved out. It’s hard to predict what a new decision-maker is going to do when they haven’t been picked yet but if you’re picking the person with the best odds of being moved it’s Cook. If the Wilfs are going a different direction from the previous regime, the new folks aren’t going to be as keen on pouring a bunch of cap space into a running back who has an injury history. Trading Smith isn’t a bad concept because there’s still so much to do on the defensive side and only a little bit of cap space to do it but what kind of return would they be getting to deal one of the franchise’s best players? Third rounder? Is that worth it?

@Tad_Fundermann If the new regime decides to move on from Kirk who are some bridge options you think would make sense for the team in 2022? Mariota, Minshew, etc. Then they can draft the best QB they see in the draft to be ready to go in 2023?

Mariota would be my pick. Think about this: Mariota went 24-19 from 2016 to 2018. Looking at his QBRs (the ESPN stat that factors running and game situation), they were 59.1, 58.6 and 53.2. Cousins the last three years: 25-22 with QBRs of 60.4, 55.8 and 51.9.

If Mariota is the quarterback of this team next year, they can go 8-9 or 9-8, compete for the playoffs and set themselves up for 2023 when they could plan to hand it over to Malik Willis, Sam Howell etc.

I’ve seen some analytics folks talk about how it’s a waste of a rookie contract year to sit the starter behind a Ryan Fitzpatrick type but it feels like anyone they would pick this year would benefit from sitting. That gives the team a year to see the QB in practice and know whether it’s going to work or not.