Friday mailbag: How will extensions impact the future?
Matthew Coller answers Vikings fans' questions about TJ Hockenson's deal and much more...
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By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, folks. Whew, what a week. We have a LOT to talk about from cutdowns to the TJ Hockenson deal — and, hey, this is our last mailbag before we’re previewing a game. Crazy. Let’s dive right in…
Drew.. I know O’Connell is excited to roll out 12 personnel this season BUT…what about going four wide with all his receiving talent? TJ or Nailor as the fourth, one split out, whatever. Mitigates the bad interior pass blocking to do some spread stuff, wouldn’t it? Or is that just my Madden brain?
I don’t think it’s just your Madden brain at work here — though I’ve played entire seasons where I just ran four verticals and adjusted the routes based on the defensive look and I’m convinced that it would actually work. Anyway, yes, I believe that club is going to be in their bag, especially with Hockenson’s ability to line up anywhere. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him and Jefferson as outside receivers with Addison and Osborn inside. And they seem to like Nailor enough to believe that he could be a deep threat in certain situations. It’s a little harder to say if that’s coming because we didn’t see him in camp but it’s logical.
The only combo I’d be surprised by would be five receiving options (WR/TE) and zero running backs. All that talent on the field at the same time would be tough on defenses but you’re asking the five up front to block everything opposing teams are going to send at empty sets and that seems like a recipe for disaster. There’s so many combinations though. They could use CJ Ham with four receivers or Josh Oliver with Hockenson at receiver and it operates more like 11 personnel at that point. If you’re playing Madden with this roster you have to set the personnel by formation and not just use the depth chart.
Michael… Do you see the Vikings having a losing record after the first 5 games?
It’s certainly not hard to make that case when they face Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes in the first five weeks and they are still coming together in Brian Flores’s defense. I think the Chargers game is close to a coin flip and it’s not impossible to upset the Eagles on a short turnaround game but the thing that stands out to me is how important Week 1 is. If they win Week 1 and then have a fairly winnable game against the Chargers in Week 3 at home with extra rest, then you feel pretty good about surviving the early part of the year. Lose to the Bucs at home and then fly to Philly and it’s going to feel like the entire season hinges on that Week 2 game. I’d probably pick 3-2 after five but 2-3 wouldn’t be devastating considering the middle of the slate. Go 1-4 and it’s gonna be a long road back.
Ramsey… looks like TJ's deal is really two years of big money and then we can clear cap space with some ($3.5Mish) dead cap. This seems to be in line with some other deals he's given out, like Byron Murphy (2 years), Josh Oliver (3 years but only guaranteed for 2), etc. Why do you think that is?
From what’s posted at OverTheCap.com, the deal really locks them in through 2025 and his cap hits are $5 mill, $14 mill and $15 mill from 2023-2025. That’s why we should always go a little deeper than parroting RESET THE MARKET. Technically by AAV, yes, but since they can also restructure in 2026 it’s likely this contract never goes over $17 million in cap hit, which matters way more. If they were to move on after 2025, it would have $7.2M dead cap and $3.6M after 2026.
Anyway, to your question, this type of deal gives them flexibility down the road. They have the player under contract longer so they hold some cards if they want to sign the player to an extension later in the contract but they can also cut them without getting hammered with dead cap. If the first few years of a deal like this ended up going sideways they would be up a creek but with a 26-year-old player that’s not much of a concern.
Brian…. If a contract extension cures Hockenson's inner ear issues and stiff back, how soon can we expect this treatment to be rolled out to the general population? Also, will they provide this treatment to Justin Jefferson as a preventive measure to maintain his inner ear health as the season approaches?
You guys have had a grand time being snarky about this and that’s all in good fun…. But let me say this: No player should have to feel like they have to hide the fact that they are using whatever leverage they have in a contract negotiation. It speaks to the system and the perception that any time a player negotiates with his team that he’s a greedy and entitled jerk and doesn’t care about the team. Teams have their right to offer contracts, players of their right to do what they can to get their market value. Yet when a team plays hardball it’s rarely criticized (though the Vikings won’t want to test that theory too much when it comes to JJ) so why do it to the player?
Jason… With the extension, can we give KAM an A for that trade both in the short and long term? It seems highly unlikely you’d get any sort of similar return for a second rounder this year. It’s always a gamble, but it seems like this is a great move in hindsight.
Yes. It’s a great trade. It’s rare that you see anybody acquire a player at the trade deadline and the guy becomes a long-term huge part of the team. The benefit to drafting someone in the second round rather than getting Hockenson is that the second-rounder is cheap for four years but sometimes we obsess a little too much over players being cheap — it’s more important that they are good. A second-rounder in exchange for a top 5-7 player at his position who stays long term on a reasonable contract is a job well done. It changes the dynamic of the offense for the future to know that there are four legitimate elite players at their positions in their primes to go forward with (CD, O’Neill, JJ, Hock).
Thomas… Do you think Kirk will get rid of his facial hair before the bye week?
I think he said he was going to play Week 1 with it and then shave. That’s for the best. Keep something like that for too long and it becomes a personality not just a funny gag.
Scott….On the pod you asked, if this could be considered a successful off-season for Kwesi if JJ doesn't get an extension? I say yes but one of the reasons given to be skeptical was that not signing JJ now only makes him more expensive next year (given he balls out this year - SKOL!). Is money the major concern in your eyes or could not signing be interpreted as JJ wanting to know the QB direction before signing?
I’ll say yes-ish. There are many important things that were accomplished this offseason. 1) Flexibility at QB for the future 2) refreshing the roster and setting up the salary cap to handle these big contracts 3) drafting a long-term partner for Jefferson 4) giving young players on D opportunity to prove themselves this year. But this feels a little bit like a test where 30% of the grade is the final essay. Yes, on 70% of the test we would give high marks (not perfect) but if you struggle with the final test you can’t get an A.
If they don’t sign Jefferson, it’s not the end of the world. He’s not becoming a Jacksonville Jaguar in 2024, it just makes things more dicey. Presumably the price goes up, practices get missed and there’s daily drama and a TON of pressure on the GM to get it done. Right now they can more calmly work toward a deal without things getting nasty.
ThePurplePlague… IF we can reasonably expect these three things in 2024: Jordan Addison and Ty Chandler/Gaskin/FA RB are B+ or better, AND... the OL is league average... AND the Defense is at least league average... Will a Marcus Mariota/FA QB + 4th best QB on the draft board be enough win the conference?
Well, 2024 is a long time from now so I can’t say if all those things are going to be B+ or average but it doesn’t seem like too big of a stretch. If they have a rookie quarterback playing, winning the conference becomes pretty unlikely since no rookie has ever taken a team to the Super Bowl but there are some examples of rookies having a lot of success very quickly. How about this for a best possible case scenario: The Vikings become the 2006-2010 Chargers where they put a young QB into a situation with an outrageous bunch of weapons and they just shred everybody. It happened with Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow in Year 2 when they got Chase, or Tua after Tyreek or Goff when McVay got there. They have the ability to recreate it.
Kyle… Which players do you think will be regulars among the Vikings’ game day inactives this season?
It’ll be interesting to see if four tight ends actually dress. Carter II isn’t ready to play. Not sure Jaquelin Roy will have a game day spot. Are they going with all six safeties? If not, Jay Ward or Lewis Cine could be odd-man out because Theo Jackson is good with special teams. I don’t know if they’ll dress Quessenberry unless they need to. Those would be my first guesses.
Ben… JJ and Hockenson are top level talents at their positions. Does the rest of the offensive bring enough to propel the unit to be top 5? Do they have the talent to overwhelm other teams where the defense can afford to give up a few scores and not worry as long as they pressure and create turnovers?
The question isn’t whether the rest of the offense has the talent, it’s whether the quarterback can play consistently enough to get them there. Cousins has had about as talented of offensive setups as anyone in the NFL, yet he hasn’t operated a top five offense in his career. Last year they stalled out so many drives that they finished 17th in percentage of drives in which they scored points. Yes, you can argue that Cook’s rushes for loss and pressure from over the guards caused that and you’d be right but we have all seen the roller coaster at QB over the years, even within games. If there’s something that can even those peaks and valleys out, it’s weapons. More options and more answers, even if the OL does have its unfortunate moments.
If I had to guess, I’d say they improve and end up closer to the top 10 in scoring percentage and end up in a pretty good amount of shootouts and one-score games again.
Never Played Madden… Who is returning kickoffs to start the year?
Kevin O’Connell said it’s going to be Ty Chandler to start. He’s fast as all heck so that makes sense.
Richard… What do you think is the next move for the 53. CB? G? And who do you see getting pumped if they bring someone else in.
Cornerback is the only position I could see changing now. I know they have Joejuan Williams on the practice squad and you can elevate him a few times but I’d prefer to see some other veteran get added just to have some more experience in the room and maybe someone who’s serviceable on the outside. If there’s any position that a late add might be key, it’s probably CB.
Ben… Based on the structure of the Hock contract is this as good deal for the Vikings financially??
Yes, I think so. The fact that his 2024 cap hit is scheduled to rank 7th among TEs right now kinda tells the story. It’s several years until this thing gets very expensive and then at that point they can extend, restructure etc. or even move on without big penalty if they want. They have him through his prime years at $15.1 cap hit as the peak until 2026. Always wait for the structure, folks.
ThePurplePlague… And I know it’s a 2024 question, so apologies, but it is pretty 15,000 ft view and unless the Vikes are in the NFC title game this year, I don’t see how Cousins comes back for what the Vikes can afford to pay.
Well, they could if they really wanted to do that. Jefferson and Darrisaw’s deals won’t be expensive in their first year or two and Hock will be $14M in 2024, so that isn’t bad. They could let Hunter go and then the only other players making $10+ million is Byron Murphy, Brian O’Neill and maybe Harrison Smith if he keeps playing. They wouldn’t have a ton of positions to replace — if they were successful enough to want him back that means the young players on defense probably stepped up. To bring Kirk back they would need to believe they were ready to win a championship with him in 2024 or 2025 before those deals got crazy expensive.
Matt L …Let’s say JJ signs for $32 mill aav and Darrisaw (next year) for $25 mill aav that would make their top 4 hits around $92 mill a year with tj/oneill. Any concern that paying top tier $$ at that many positions (not qb) will end up impacting rest of roster? Also, noting that I think they should absolutely lock those 4 up.
Because of the youth of the rest of the roster and the QB position freeing up so much money after 2024, there should be plenty of space to work around those deals. When you’re a rebuilding/retooling team you can be very choosy about how you spend money around the elite players who are making huge dollars. That’s where the Vikings get to live over the next couple years. What happened to the last group was that they won enough in 2017 for a bunch of guys to all get big contract extensions and eventually they some of them became expensive while not living up to their cap numbers and it made things very tricky around an expensive Cousins deal. The lack of a big QB contract mitigates that (the Bengals have 12 guys making over $8 million) and any other players who become good on their rookie deals make that easier. If Addison is good right away, his production will be worth like $20 million even if he’s paid one-fifth of that. Like the 2017 Vikings had big dollars sunk into Bradford but Hunter/Diggs/Kendricks were on rookie deals.
OldDrummer55… Please explain the intricacies of Hockinson’s new contract. I don’t understand the accounting smoke and mirrors utilized by Brezinski. $42.5 million guaranteed, so the rest is based on performance?
If he just plays out every year of the contract, he’s going to earn the full amount — the $64 million and then there’s a few more bonuses that can get up to the $68 million number that was originally reported. But if he plays any less than that, he’s going to come away with at least $30 million that’s fully guarantee even if he were to get hit by a bus tomorrow. PFF’s Brad Spielberger reported that his 2025 salary is only guaranteed for injury but becomes fully guaranteed next year, which I believe is where the $42.5 million number comes from.
The only thing we really need to worry about is cap hits, dead money if they have to move on and any time there’s stuff written into contracts to force movement like “on X date he’s owed $45 million bonus.” How they got there really doesn’t matter too much.
Scott…What happens when the injury bug, inevitably, bites this team? Which group is more vulnerable to a key injury, CBs, RBs or OL?
Scott, we haven’t played a game and you’re already asking about what happens when bodies start hitting the ground? Very Minnesota sports fan of you. Right now it’s the cornerback group. If someone gets hurt, it’s Booth Jr. into the mix and then after that ????????
It’s probably easier to survive missing Mattison at RB for a few games than cornerbacks. There is no hiding them, as we have seen over and over the last few years. The OL isn’t any different in terms of depth than anyone else but I do think Schlottmann could be fine for a few games and Udoh played OK in the playoff game last year. Defensive line could be another nomination here.
Daniel… I was really intrigued to see that instead of putting more money into this year the Vikings actually cut Hockenson’s salary by 4.5 million freeing up more cap space. Any thoughts as to why this would be the case? Is it a Jefferson extension or might something else be looming?
So they can sign… Dalton Risner? It doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen but he’s practically an honorary Viking for as much as we’ve talked about him.
One reason is probably because they had almost no cap space after adding the practice squad, Quessenberry, Gaskin and Vigil. You always want to have a little breathing room and they are listed right now as only having around $6 million by OTC. It’s definitely possible that some money could be pushed into Jefferson’s 2022 cap number but probably not a lot at this point. If they want to nab a veteran corner at a very cheap price they can, not much more than that.
I just listened to your podcast with Brad Spielberger and really enjoyed your role playing with Jefferson's contract. On the Jefferson side do you think he would want to wait another year to see who his quarterback is going to be before he commits to the Vikings?