Fourth downs, trick plays and turnovers could determine Vikings-Lions matchup

Detroit's offense and aggressive approach creates a fascinating battle between a top offense and defense

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

EAGAN — The matchup between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings on Sunday Night Football is filled with drama because of the stakes but what makes the game even more compelling is that each team has its own unique way of playing that helped them reach the 14-win mark this season.

On Detroit’s side, their uniqueness begins with head coach Dan Campbell’s aggressive decision making on fourth down. Particularly in recent weeks since the Lions have suffered a run of defensive injuries, Campbell has pushed the go-for-it button even more often. Against the Green Bay Packers on December 5, the Lions converted 4-of-5 fourth downs, including a handoff on fourth-and-1 with a 3-point lead to seal the game. Two weeks later in a shootout with Buffalo they went 3-for-3 on fourth down and then last week versus the 49ers they picked up first downs twice on three attempts.

Overall, the Lions are not the top team in terms of attempting fourth downs but they are the top good team at rolling the dice. All four teams that have tried more fourth downs than Detroit are set to draft in the top 10, which tells us that many of those tries came out of desperation than strategy. For Campbell’s club, it’s part of the gameplan. And while he is often made out to be a madman, the Lions’ offensive talent has removed a lot of the risk associated with going for fourth downs and turned it into the smarter statistical play. Out of 29 attempts on fourth down, Detroit has 20 conversions, including five touchdowns.

Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who enters the final week of the season with the second highest quarterback rating in the NFL and second highest completion percentage, has excelled with the pressure on. He is 10-for-13 on fourth down with nine first downs and four touchdowns.

In the run game, Detroit also features three of the highest graded (by PFF) run blocking offensive linemen in Frank Ragnow, Penei Sewell and Kevin Zeitler. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs averages 5.6 yards per carry. He has been involved in six fourth down tries and converted five.

On the other side, the Vikings are the No. 1 fourth-down defense in the NFL. They have given up just 11 conversions on 31 attempts.

The Vikings know that it could be a big determining factor in Sunday night’s contest but opponents attempting fourth downs won’t be something brand new to them.

“I think that's kind of a league wide trend,” defensive coordinator Brian Flores said. “There's a lot more fourth down attempts in that world probably five, ten years ago….you've got to be ready for that down… defensively, you've got to have more calls…it's not just, ‘hey, third down, and it's over,’ which historically, that's what it's been… So we spent a lot of time on fourth down.”

While it’s true that the NFL continues to see more and more fourth down attempts each year, the Lions are their own different type of animal.

“They’ll do it on their side of the 50… it shows the confidence that they play with and when you have a good O-line and skill players you’re going to have a lot of trust in them…it’s something we have to prepare for,” outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel said. “When they know their going for it on fourth down then the whole playbook is open on third down and they can run it on third down.”

Detroit has attempted to convert a fourth down on seven occasions on their own side of the field, including a fake punt against the Vikings earlier this year. CJ Ham and Josh Metellus made a stop on that play and quickly turned it into points.

On Wednesday, head coach Kevin O’Connell said that he views fourth down stops like turnovers.

“Many times those are those are such critical field position plays,” O’Connell said. “It's not just the ones at the goal line where it's fourth-and-1 at the one…Chicago went for it early and I thought that was a huge momentum play against us on Monday night. You can think back to a lot of those this year.”

Speaking of turnovers, the ability to cause them and prevent them will be a storyline in Vikings vs. Lions as well.

The Vikings have allowed opponents to score on a league-low 30.7% of their drives this season, a stat that is rooted in their ability to take the ball away. They have forced 31 turnovers, tied for the most in the NFL. Out of those 31 takeaways, 22 are interceptions, which leads the league by three over the next best team.

“One thing I keep circling back to with [the defense] is turnovers,” O’Connell said. “It's one thing to play good defense, which they have. It's one thing to stop the run, which they have…but when you are able to take the football away in every single game, that's providing…those are momentum plays for your entire team, not just getting off the field on a third down, and then a punting play flips the whole field position. It's field position plays. It's momentum plays… like what [Ivan Pace Jr.] did when Josh Metellus punched it out against these guys the first time around.”