Film Study: Kyler Murray vs. Carolina
Continuing our deep dives into Murray's play last year
By Matthew Coller
Now that Kyler Murray is the Minnesota Vikings quarterback, we are taking a closer look at his games from the 2025 season. Today we focus on Week 2 vs. Carolina in which Murray went 17-for-25 with 220 yards passing, one touchdown, one interception and 32 yards rushing in a 27-22 victory.
We begin with a very routine deep out route from Murray to Marvin Harrison Jr. that is executed to perfection by the quarterback. He drops back, adjusts in the pocket when the left tackle is beat cleanly and then throws with anticipation as his receiver comes out of his break in one-on-one coverage.
The pass travels about 15 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and 25+ in the air and hits Harrison Jr. dead on the numbers. And it goes right through his hands.
This is an example of why using Expected Points Added as a player evaluation tool can be suspect. This play would go down as a negative on the quarterback. As a PFF grade, it would only be a minus on the receiver.
Anyway, it speaks to how accurate Murray is when throwing to the outside and his nimble pocket feel when he chooses to hang in the pocket. His timing, footwork and accuracy and ball location couldn’t have been much better. Can’t catch it for them.
As it translates to the Vikings, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are pretty darn good at winning one-on-one out-breaking routes. Murray can absolutely get them those throws beyond 10 yards.
Our next play is a small bit of creativity from Murray. It isn’t anything that would make a highlight reel but it demonstrates that he’s always in playmaker mode with his eyes downfield.
The Panthers throw a simulated pressure at the Cardinals with a D-lineman dropping out and linebacker rushing. Murray is looking to take a shot downfield but he sees the deep safety coming over and decides to extend the play. As he works into space in the pocket, you’ll notice that the linebacker has drifted 10 yards away from the line of scrimmage, opening up a little space. Murray would have scrambled but his running back leaves his block and finds space for a big gain.
This is why Murray’s Success Rate has been good overall, even if his yards per play has not. In this instance, he elected not to take the risk of firing the ball deep, even though he might have been able to toss a ball up for grabs if he wanted. Instead, he gets an easy first down by dropping it off.
Our next play is the one you show your friends if they claim that Murray can’t throw to the middle of the field or can’t throw deep. This is a seam route by Trey McBride that requires A+ timing and accuracy.
As soon as Murray hits his back foot, he hitches and then glides the ball flawlessly over the linebacker with perfect touch right into the hands of his tight end for an enormous gain.
This is what we call “arm talent,” folks. The reverse angle also shows Murray throwing it over massive DT Derrick Brown with his arms up.
You have to imagine TJ Hockenson watching this play with a lot of interest. It’s something the Vikings have done regularly with him (including one of McCarthy’s better throws last year vs. Dallas).
Speaking of Hockenson, one of his best traits is finding space in zones. That’s exactly what McBride does here. The Pro Bowl tight end lines up in the slot. He quickly realizes that the Panthers are playing zone when the nickel defender drifts away from him, leaving the middle linebacker alone with a lot of space to cover. Murray identifies it immediately and the ball is out.
If Murray had hung in the pocket and waited for a deep out route to Michael Wilson, it’s possible that he would have eventually found himself open. But it seemed to be Arizona’s offensive philosophy to get the ball out of Murray’s hands quickly whenever possible. There aren’t many instances on tape of him hanging onto the ball and waiting for a bunch of deep routes to develop.
That is a legitimate question with KOC. There were times where it seemed he wanted Kirk Cousins to wait and see if the best read came available but Cousins often moved quickly to the underneath stuff. From the pocket, Murray is very similar to Cousins, even if that doesn’t feel intuitive.
Later in the game, we see an example of where Murray can be frustrating, even when successful. Out of an empty set, the Panthers rush four and drop everyone else into deep zones. The pocket starts to get pushed back a little but he isn’t really in great danger but before the other receivers get into their routes, he’s already moved outside the pocket and dumped the ball underneath.
When Murray releases the ball, the safety on his side is in conflict. He either has to go after the outside receiver running a go route to the end zone or cover McBride, who is breaking inside. Ideally, Murray would adjust in the pocket and then throw to one of those two receivers for a bigger gain or a home run shot.
Still, there are so many of these underneath passes that work out really well, this turns into a massive gain because the defense has been pushed back too far.
The issue tends to arise against better teams. When you are facing great tacklers or players who are instinctual or cover a lot of ground quickly, it’s tougher to find these big holes under the umbrella of deep defenders.
This next throw is eye-popping. In the red zone, Murray hits Wilson for a touchdown in the back of the end zone. He drops back and recognizes that his receiver has space on a post. As soon as his back foot hits the ground on his drop, he leads the receiver right to his spot in between the two defenders.
He also delivered the ball over No. 94 leaping in the air on the D-line. Whew.
If you’re noticing that we haven’t had too many negative plays yet that’s because there aren’t many in this game. This was Murray’s highest PFF graded game of the season and it was the 7th best grade of any QB in Week 2.
Anyway, this next throw is also good. With some O’Connell-esque pre-snap motion, Murray hits a stop route in the middle of the field between three defenders. He has the exact right timing, accuracy and velocity to stick the ball in the right opening in the zone to get Arizona very close to a first down.
This is why it should draw eyerolls when anyone asks: Can Murray win from the pocket? If it’s a clean pocket, the answer is 100% yes. He had a 97.0 QB rating in five games with a clean pocket in 2025 and was marvelous in his full 2024 season, grading a 91.4 by PFF and posting a 106.5 QB rating with 21 Big-Time Throws and just 3 Turnover-Worthy plays.
Pressure is much more volatile, as we will see.
There are times when Murray does absolutely crazy stuff to escape pressure. That’s what happens on this next play where the Panthers send a free rusher flying at him up the middle and he pulls some Matrix stuff and then runs for 30 yards.
What can you even say about a play like this? There are two or three QBs in the NFL that are capable of doing anything in this ballpark. Murray’s running ability can’t be looked at like a footnote when he can turn a total disaster by his blockers into a game-changing scramble.
Now here’s the downside. Since Murray is one of the great high school players in Texas history and won the Heisman as a young player and has pulled off 50 plays like this, he always believes he can do it.
Unfortunately, he cannot always do it. And sometimes he tries to do it at times where it makes no sense.
This play happens in the fourth quarter with the Cardinals being up 27-9. If he does nothing and they kick a field goal, game over, goodnight. Instead, he attempts to pull some Houdini stuff and the Panthers get a hold of him. The ball is tipped up in the air for a very ugly interception that nearly opens the door for a Panthers comeback.
How do you manage Murray’s desire to do miraculous stuff with the risk of him turning the ball over with a sack, fumble or interception? In general, he’s been decent at avoiding mistakes like this but he can be better.
With the Vikings, O’Connell must urge situational football and the concept of not needing to put everything on his back, as he so often did in Arizona.
Get ready to hear a lot of the phrase: “Play point guard.”
Definitely some good stuff. While he made a boneheaded play on the INT at the end, I would put some of the blame on the playcaller and HC. 3rd and 4 in the red zone, 4th quarter, you can go up by 3 TDs with a FG--run the ball or run a low-risk pass like a screen or drag route. They had two routes going into the end zone, which looked like where the play was intended to go, but no one who he could possibly get the ball to is open. Just a dumb sequence all around that seemed destined to fail, from call to execution.
Love this video opinion play and thank you always for the great insight