Film Study: Darnold's arm show

Looking at Sam Darnold's exceptional arm talent vs. Indy and Harrison Phillips's strong showing

© Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

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By Matthew Coller

The Minnesota Vikings needed some key players to step up on Sunday night in order to beat the Indianapolis Colts. Let’s have a look at a few performances of note through the All-22 film lens…

Darnold’s arm

The thing about Sam Darnold’s arm is that it’s incredibly strong — to the point where he can make throws out of awkward positions that few humans have ever been able to make. The problem is that sometimes he believes in the cannon a little too much. That was the case on the red zone interception he threw on the first drive of the game.

When Darnold escaped the pocket and rolled to his left, he saw the linebacker’s eyes on him and TJ Hockenson racing toward the back of the end zone. If we freeze frame right before Darnold lets the ball go, you can see the thought process. If he could get it over No. 44, then his Pro Bowl tight end would be wide open.

The problem: The ball came out completely flat and was easily intercepted. Offensive coordinator Wes Phillips said on Tuesday that it needed to be a “him or nobody” type of throw that was way up in the air at the back line of the end zone.

When it comes to interceptions like this, you would like Darnold to make sure that he gets to another play and doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way. However, when you see the rest of the throws he made on the night that were high difficulty, it’s easier to understand why he does it: Oftentimes it works. Darnold has the third highest big-time throw percentage in the NFL (per PFF) and the fifth highest turnover-worthy play percentage. The Vikings will have to live with some variance if they want the high end.

Our next throw is masterful work from the rocket-armed QB. Darnold runs play-action and is forced to step up in the pocket. He finds space to set his feet and lets loose a laser beam to Justin Jefferson over the middle. When he makes the decision to throw the ball, Jefferson is right behind a defender but Darnold leads him right past the zone defensive back to the other hash for an explosive play.

All season Darnold has had a great feel for these types of throws, especially to Jefferson. On throws toward Jefferson that are in the middle of the field between 10-19 yards, Darnold is 12-for-14 with 229 yards this season (per PFF). It’s the Vikings’ offensive cheat code.

Our next pretty toss by Darnold comes on the play of the night, a one-handed catch by Jordan Addison in the back of the end zone. While Addison deserves a ton of credit for making a brilliant play, it can’t be understated how difficult it was for Darnold to put enough velocity on the ball to reach Addison in a tight spot.

The Colts’ blitz comes firing through the line and pressures Darnold instantly, forcing him to scramble at top speed and backward as rushers were chasing him from behind and in front of him. He had to throw the ball on a fadeaway despite running fast and away from his target. Also there is a defender underneath Addison who is covering Aaron Jones, meaning that he couldn’t throw it directly to his receiver,. Instead he had to put it in the back of the end zone.

If that ball was intercepted, we would have been calling for Darnold to stop putting the ball in harm’s way. Instead, he ends up with seven points. It’s a fine, fine line.

The next throw, a 19-yard completion to Hockenson, seemed routine in the moment because Hock was open but upon reflection was a vulgar display of arm talent. Darnold gets good protection and waits in the pocket until he spots his tight end getting into open space. As he cocks back to throw the ball, 6-foot-7 DeForest Buckner breaks loose of his block and jumps into Darnold’s vision. Mid throw, he adjusts his arm angle to drop down and throw the ball around Buckner and into Hockenson’s hands.

This is another example of the ying and yang of Darnold. He sometimes holds onto the ball too long waiting for routes to come open and takes sacks. He also sometimes makes a ridiculous side-armed throw to a guy breaking open at the very last second. Darnold is playing football a lot like Matthew Stafford in LA 2021. Stafford was No. 1 in big-time throws, third worst in turnover-worthy plays and finished in the top 10 in sacks.

One last monster throw. The anticipation that Darnold displays at times is extremely impressive. On his 41-yard pass to Justin Jefferson, he realizes right away that JJ has one-on-one coverage and knows that his receiver will outrun the corner. Darnold begins his throwing motion when Jefferson is at the 35 yard line and leads him all the way inside the 10-yard line. Perfect ball location and touch. Jefferson didn’t even have to make an exceptional grab on this one.

It’s true that Darnold’s miscues helped keep the Colts in the game. His arm talent also won them the game. That’s going to continue to be life with him at quarterback. So far the good has far outweighed the bad.

Harrison Phillips and Dallas Turner