Extending Aaron Jones will be a good move if...

The Vikings gave Jones a new contract on Sunday afternoon

© David Reginek-Imagn Images

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By Matthew Coller

Last season, Aaron Jones’s bang-for-buck was enormous. For the price of $7 million on a one-year contract, the veteran running back carried the ball 255 times for 1,138 yards and caught 51 passes for 408 yards. His total yards from scrimmage was only 12 yards away from his career high, set back in 2019.

On Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings elected to take another swing at getting the most out of a running back who is battling the age curve at 30 years old. They signed Jones to a two-year, $20 million extension with $13 million guaranteed.

While the history of running back performance after age 30 and following a heavy workload season is not on the Vikings’ side, replacing Jones in the free agent market would have been quite difficult. There are only four other free agent who RBs played at least 50% of their team’s total snap last season: Pittsburgh’s NaJee Harris, Rico Dowdle of the Cowboys, Denver’s Javonte Williams and LA’s JK Dobbins. In fact, only three other unrestricted free agents played between 30%-40% of snaps and two of them were former Vikings Ameer Abdullah and Alex Mattison. That’s how weak the free agent market in the backfield is.

Just because Jones was a better option than many of the other available players doesn’t mean that it isn’t still risky. In the “future of the Vikings” series back in January, I included this stat: Since 2014, there have only been seven instances of running backs at age 31 or older gaining more than 750 yards and averaging 4.3 yards per carry or more. All of the RBs who accomplished that feat were more stout than Jones, including Adrian Peterson, Latavius Murray, Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Marshawn Lynch and LeGarrette Blount.

So the Vikings will need some things to go their way in order for the Jones signing to be successful. For starters, they need to pair this move with taking a running back in the draft. Asking Jones to run the ball 255 times last year was far more than the Vikings expected when the preseason plan was to have him split the backfield with Ty Chandler. That duo never came to fruition and the former Packer ended up rushing the 9th most times of any RB in the NFL. Jones told us last year that the Vikings training staff started him out on a program from Day 1 that he believed would extend his career for years. You would imagine that plan is part of why Jones wanted to stay but that doesn’t mean they can ride him into the ground.

This year’s draft opens up the possibility for the Vikings to grab a quality prospect. The website Mock Draft Database has seven RBs projected in the top 100 and four more before pick No. 130. It doesn’t appear likely that the Vikings would spend their 24th overall selection on a RB but they should expect there to be starting-caliber players into the late third round when they pick 97th overall.

Jones’s average carries per season from 2020 to 2023 was 182, which is more along the lines of where the Vikings should aim for 2025. They are still likely to need him as RB1 as there aren’t many RBs who are taken in the mid rounds that immediately take the lion’s share of rushes. Last year there were three rookies who carried the ball more than 100 times.

Improving the interior of the offensive line in terms of run blocking could also help sustain or increase Jones’s effectiveness. These days he is a patient and cerebral running back but he’s not as explosive as he once was. Jones is not going to create way more in terms of yardage than the space the blocking creates for him. Per NFL NextGen stats, he gained 0.17 yards per carry over expected. That was mid-pack among starting RBs.

Getting a better push in short yardage next season is key. Jones gained a strong 4.9 yards per carry on first down but he only managed 12 yards on nine carries on third down and between 1-3 yards to go and he ran 24 times inside the 10-yard line for eight yards. Eight. Those are O-line stats.

Quarterback JJ McCarthy also has to use Jones out of the backfield as a receiver in order to make the contract worth its price tag. He averages 370 yards receiving per 17 games in his career and has the rare capability to run routes from a receiver position and make catches down field if called upon. He did that in 2024 and has to be a part of doing it again next year.

The one area that the Vikings have a safe bet on with Jones is with his leadership. Sometimes that draws eyerolls from fans and analysts but with a first-time starting quarterback, having a RB who has seen it all can help as a calming force for McCarthy and the offense.

The Vikings also emphasize and execute having a strong culture like few other teams. They ranked No. 2 by the NFLPA survey in overall organizational strength and head coach Kevin O’Connell garnered an A+ grade. Part of the reason O’Connell connects so well with his players is that he has leaders in the locker room who buy into him. Jones instantly became one of those leaders last year. That has real value for a team that overachieves in part because of their environment.

The question will arise about the price tag? Is it too much? Well, with the cap going up to $279 million, Jones’s $10 million would take up 3.5% of the cap if his cap hit matched the average annual value. It probably won’t. Last year he was on a one-year deal yet he only took up $3.8 million in cap space. The Vikings do have to stuff $3.2 in dead money into this deal but they will likely find ways to spread out the dollars.

Also with the fact that they did not sign Sam Darnold to a big contract, they are cap healthy enough that they don’t have to pinch pennies.

So Jones’s contract success or failure will come down to whether he can stay on the field and perform with similar or better efficiency and likely lower volume. If they get someone to pair him along rather than asking for him to take on everything and grab some big bodies to get a push in front of him, it’s not far fetched to believe it can be a successful extension.

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