Not a huge fan of going safety in the first round. I’ll have to grind some more tape, but Emmanwori in particular just seems like a bad pick to me. He didn’t do any agility tests for his RAS, and looking at his highlight reels I don’t think he would do well on those. I’d value agility more in a safety than straight line speed and power. I want a guy who can say “oh crap” and change directions on a dime on the back end. Apparently they both have issues with tackling, but I’d rather wait on safety and take Watts or Mukuba. They both look like great value for 2/3 round.
With you 100% on Emmanwori. I won't claim I can tell from his tape--I'm more of an "aggregator" when it comes to this, read as many credible drafniks as I can and see what the majority say. On Emmanwori some really good ones point out he's much more of a reactor than an anticapator--he doesn't diagnose, but needs to see it to respond and therefore doesn't play close to his workout speeds. Hate to go there, but these were some of the same negatives I remember reading on Cine. I know he barely played this year, but Kevin Winston would be the other safety I'd add to your list.
Yeah, I don’t kid myself into thinking I’m an elite draft evaluator or anything, but it’s just more fun to watch some highlights and see where you disagree with the consensus. That way you can say, “See! I told you Will Levis and Malik Willis were not first round QBs!”. On Emmanwori, he definitely looks to me like he is reacting out there. Looks awkward when he moves because he is uncertain most of the time and waits for guys to come to him. If you can’t play fast and decisive in college, I don’t trust it to happen in the NFL. I’d have him as my 4th or 5th safety.
Another thing to your comment on Safety in the first. It's come up over and over that it's easier to gauge the trench players because they have hundreds of similar reps to judge and there's less nuance in the schemes than say CBs or Safeties, and of course, Quarterbacks. I'd be happy with Zabel or Jackson at Guard, or Harmon, Grant, Nolen at DT with the first pick. The argument to pick IOL early is there are fewer good ones later, while there are some really good DTs in that 100 range like CJ West, Jamaree Caldwell, and my personal fave, JJ Pegues.
Oh, I watch highlights too and get what you mean. When I watch Kaleb Johnson highlights he's usually just running through big holes and only one time did I see him make someone miss (against the Gophers). I'm also colored by watching certain players a lot, like Donovan Jackson, or seeing JJ Pegues go off in a game.
It's a funny juxtaposition: higher picks do better, so the league as a whole mostly knows how to assess players, but there hasn't been a single GM who avoids busts. Well before passing on JJ for Reagor, Roseman once used a first rounder on a 27 year old firefighter.
In terms of this year's pick, the details matter. Moving back requires a buyer--which means there is someone who wants the player that's available at 24. One would hope to thus get a premium, which is a different outcome than getting equal draft value allocated in later rounds.
I would go with the plug in player like Darisaw, J Jefferson or Randy Moss at number 24. However, I don't know who that might be. Kwesi and company may have an idea.Stick with pick 24.
Not a huge fan of going safety in the first round. I’ll have to grind some more tape, but Emmanwori in particular just seems like a bad pick to me. He didn’t do any agility tests for his RAS, and looking at his highlight reels I don’t think he would do well on those. I’d value agility more in a safety than straight line speed and power. I want a guy who can say “oh crap” and change directions on a dime on the back end. Apparently they both have issues with tackling, but I’d rather wait on safety and take Watts or Mukuba. They both look like great value for 2/3 round.
With you 100% on Emmanwori. I won't claim I can tell from his tape--I'm more of an "aggregator" when it comes to this, read as many credible drafniks as I can and see what the majority say. On Emmanwori some really good ones point out he's much more of a reactor than an anticapator--he doesn't diagnose, but needs to see it to respond and therefore doesn't play close to his workout speeds. Hate to go there, but these were some of the same negatives I remember reading on Cine. I know he barely played this year, but Kevin Winston would be the other safety I'd add to your list.
Winston looks good to me and is probably being discounted due to his injury last year, so fits the running theme this offseason.
Yeah, I don’t kid myself into thinking I’m an elite draft evaluator or anything, but it’s just more fun to watch some highlights and see where you disagree with the consensus. That way you can say, “See! I told you Will Levis and Malik Willis were not first round QBs!”. On Emmanwori, he definitely looks to me like he is reacting out there. Looks awkward when he moves because he is uncertain most of the time and waits for guys to come to him. If you can’t play fast and decisive in college, I don’t trust it to happen in the NFL. I’d have him as my 4th or 5th safety.
Another thing to your comment on Safety in the first. It's come up over and over that it's easier to gauge the trench players because they have hundreds of similar reps to judge and there's less nuance in the schemes than say CBs or Safeties, and of course, Quarterbacks. I'd be happy with Zabel or Jackson at Guard, or Harmon, Grant, Nolen at DT with the first pick. The argument to pick IOL early is there are fewer good ones later, while there are some really good DTs in that 100 range like CJ West, Jamaree Caldwell, and my personal fave, JJ Pegues.
Oh, I watch highlights too and get what you mean. When I watch Kaleb Johnson highlights he's usually just running through big holes and only one time did I see him make someone miss (against the Gophers). I'm also colored by watching certain players a lot, like Donovan Jackson, or seeing JJ Pegues go off in a game.
It's a funny juxtaposition: higher picks do better, so the league as a whole mostly knows how to assess players, but there hasn't been a single GM who avoids busts. Well before passing on JJ for Reagor, Roseman once used a first rounder on a 27 year old firefighter.
In terms of this year's pick, the details matter. Moving back requires a buyer--which means there is someone who wants the player that's available at 24. One would hope to thus get a premium, which is a different outcome than getting equal draft value allocated in later rounds.
I was told there would be no math.
I would go with the plug in player like Darisaw, J Jefferson or Randy Moss at number 24. However, I don't know who that might be. Kwesi and company may have an idea.Stick with pick 24.