EAGER: Five Years, One Playoff Win, and a Tough Road Ahead
Since Kirk Cousins' signing the veteran QB has played well but it hasn't resulted in a deep playoff run and the road to changing that is difficult without cap space
The following is a guest column from Eric Eager, formerly of Pro Football Focus and now the vice president of research and development for Sumer Sports. He co-hosts the Sumer Sports Show with ex-NFL GM Thomas Dimitroff….and is a Minnesota native who grew up in the Denny Green era.
By Eric Eager
The Minnesota Vikings’ season came to an end Sunday at US Bank Stadium, with Kirk Cousins checking down to T.J. Hockenson short of the first down marker on fourth down. Cousins was far from the reason the Vikings lost that game, as he threw for 274 yards and two touchdowns without even one turnover-worthy play to his ledger per PFF. He faced constant pressure (43.6%) from an upstart Giants defense, while Vikings defense, 29th in yards per play allowed, 25th in success rate allowed during the regular season, was victimized repeatedly by a Giants offense that looked more like they had Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz at wide receiver than they did Isaiah Hodgins, Darius Slayton and Richie James. No quarterback should be expected to win games when the defense and offensive line plays that poorly.
Unless he is a big reason the defense and offensive line are that poor in the first place.
Since Kirk Cousins arrived in Minnesota, taking over a team that led the league in 2017 in yards per play allowed and success rate rate allowed, the roster - and specifically the defense - has undergone a constant state of atrophy. Guys like Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes and Everson Griffen aged off of the roster completely, while others like Harrison Smith, Danielle Hunter and Eric Kendricks, continued to play at a high enough level to warrant contracts - and subsequent desperation extensions and restructures - that in many ways have them in the position they are in today. The Vikings are almost $20 million over the cap while needing to sign star wide receiver Justin Jefferson to a record-setting deal this offseason to see him play another snap with the team. Per my former intern Arjun Menon’s article, the Vikings are 29th in available resources this coming offseason.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-evaluating-which-nfl-teams-are-best-set-up-for-the-2023-offseason
The offensive line, which has struggled for basically the entire Cousins era, has actually hit on two gems at the two premium positions in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill - but have not had the resources to use free agency to shore up guard and center - which is where the smart teams go to acquire reinforcements at non-premium spots. Having to skimp on free agency left them to use draft capital, with longer odds of success, on Garrett Bradbury, Ezra Cleveland, Wyatt Davis and Ed Ingram, all players who have flopped. Cousins’ style of play is easier on tackles than interior linemen, which has exacerbated this issue.
https://overthecap.com/maximizing-roster-construction-by-valuing-positions-in-the-nfl-draft
After a 2017 season that saw not only significant star power shine, but also depth, depth born out by solid 2014 and 2015 drafts and free agent moves for guys like Joseph and Riley Reiff, the 2022 Vikings team, like the 2021 Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams, depended on superstars in key spots and an ability to hide weaknesses elsewhere. The problem was that, aside from Jefferson, Minnesota’s superstars were both aging quickly and not as good as Sean McVay’s bunch. Except at quarterback, football is a weak-link game, and Minnesota’s were exposed when it mattered most.
Thus, while Cousins has never been the biggest problem in Minnesota - far from it - almost none of their biggest problems are solvable with him on the roster. Aside from Jefferson, they are old and expensive where they are great, and that greatness is dissolving with each passing game. The draft - where they could have overcome this deficit and sustained a roster quarterbacked Cousins, has largely failed them, with just three starters to show for the last two Aprils, and just four picks coming up in this one.
The 2023 season was indeed fun for Vikings fans and observers: They got great turnover variance (why they were middle of the pack in EPA allowed while near the bottom in success rate allowed), continued to get hall of fame play from Jefferson, and benefited greatly from a bold move by Kwesi Adofo-Mensah to get a second receiving option after it was clear that Adam Thielen, and his restructured deal born out of cap hell desperation, was over the hill.
They had a schedule that included a plethora of backup quarterbacks and poor performances by the great quarterbacks they did face (e.g. Josh Allen, and the first Aaron Rodgers game). They hit on the modest free agent signings they were able to secure in Dalvin Tomlinson in 2021 and Za’Darius Smith in 2022 - whose middling contracts represent the biggest outside free agents acquired in the Cousins era. Kevin O’Connell brought over whatever secret sauce the Rams were using to be one of the healthiest teams in the NFL, giving the team an advantage there for much of the season.
And, ultimately, they still weren’t a great team. The math was right. They were a team with a negative point differential that caught a bunch of luck and were eventually exposed by what many believed was the worst team on the NFC side of the bracket. A New York Giants team that played better than they did in every facet of play. There was a road to them still having success this season - I talked about it on my podcast, the SumerSports Show, but it was a long shot at best.
While Kirk Cousins has been far from a failure as the Minnesota Vikings quarterback, the decision to sign him - and all of the subsequent decisions his contracts (both in size and lack of length) forced them to take part in - has been a failure. Five seasons, one division title, one playoff win and a 2023 outlook that will test the mettle of Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell.
Like it or not, the future is now.
This article really lays out why this season cannot be viewed as a success. Based on their decisions this off season they acted like they were a contender. Losing in the first round to the 6 seed means that they were wrong with that evaluation.
I think the most likely outcome for the 2023 season is Coller's "natural tank". I don't think they will go full rebuild, but will try again to keep the aging roster together as much as possible and age /bad breaks finally catch up with them. My biggest worry is that they extend Cousins only for cap savings just to fit in Jefferson's extension. We will really see this off season if Kwesi is going to repeat the mistakes of the Spielman era.
Thanks Eric. Reality hurts but since Ziggy and Mark have owned the team it's always been good but not good enough. And the one playoff win could've been a loss very easily Rudolph also could've been called for PI. Always good to read your written work and when you've did a podcast with Matt.