Draft countdown: If a QB is available, will the Vikings take him or trade down?
With the Panthers out of the QB market, the Vikings could pick at 14 with a top QB prospect on the board
Over the next few weeks leading to the NFL Draft on April 29, we will have a series of articles analyzing the top prospects and biggest storylines at every position. We begin at quarterback…
By Matthew Coller
Every year we go into draft night feeling like we know exactly how things are going to play out.
By the time the the draft arrives, we have been blasted for two months straight with mock drafts, insiders with anonymous sources and endless film breakdowns. That information overload brings with it overconfidence about where players will land. And every year the actual results end up being far different than we expected.
The Huddle Report tracks mock draft success. Their standings show that big-name draft analysts are no more accurate than local newspapers or draft-focused websites.
There are lots of good examples of experts missing big on projections, even at the most important position. Remember when Jimmy Clausen was expected to be a top 10 pick and ended up being a second-rounder? Mel Kiper Jr. said on ESPN that he would retire if Clausen didn’t become a good quarterback. How about 2018 when Lamar Jackson stunningly dropped to the 32nd overall pick. Mock drafts in 2019 had Daniel Jones as a mid-first at best. He went sixth overall to the New York Giants.
Last year plenty of analysts had Jordan Love being picked higher than 26th to the Packers. Teddy Bridgewater was expected at one point in the pre-draft process to go No. 1 and landed at No. 32 to the Vikings.
Based on draft order and Carolina’s trade for Sam Darnold on Monday, there seems to be an opening for one quarterback will take a surprising tumble down the board this year, especially if the NFL isn’t as high on the top five prospects as the draft analysis world. We could read into Carolina’s move to mean that they weren’t as high on all five prospects.
Of course, Carolina also might not think they were going to get a top-five QB at No. 8. The league seems to be undergoing a shift in the way teams view the QB position. It’s plausible that Daniel Jeremiah’s latest 2021 mock draft, which has five QBs taken in the top seven selections, could end up being accurate. Some teams could address the future at quarterback rather than filling immediate needs elsewhere. Others could opt for high ceiling QBs over sure things.
How could a top QB prospect end up available at 14?
It would take some combination of the following things:
— The Falcons decide to pick the top weapon on the board (Kyle Pitts, Ja’Marr Chase etc.) rather than trade down to a QB-needy team.
— Detroit feels they have way too many weaknesses to spend a first-round pick on a QB and picks at No. 7.
— Teams that are set at QB (Dolphins, Cowboys, Giants, Chargers) pick at their given selection rather than trading down to QB-needy teams like New England, Washington and Chicago.
For reference, here’s how the first 13 picks look in terms of QB situation:
1 — Jaguars — Lock to pick a QB
2 — Jets — Lock to pick a QB
3 — 49ers — Lock to pick a QB
4 — Falcons — Chance to pick a QB or trade down
5 — Bengals — Set with Joe Burrow
6 — Dolphins — Likely set with Tua Tagovailoa
7 — Lions — Could pick QB
8 — Panthers — Likely set with Sam Darnold
9 — Broncos — Good chance to pick a QB
10 — Cowboys — Set with Dak Prescott
11 — Giants — Set with Daniel Jones
12 — Eagles — Could pick QB but need to completely rebuild roster
13 — Chargers — Set with Justin Herbert
There are so many permutations that it’s impossible to put odds on things coming together to allow for at least one quarterback to be there when the Vikings pick. For purposes of our exercise here, let’s just say it’s not incredibly likely but also within the realm of possibility that a QB will be on the board at 14.
Who might be there?
One thing that makes this scenario challenging is that we don’t know which quarterback is the most likely to drop. As the waters have become more and more muddy in the last few weeks with reports that the 49ers are likely to take Mac Jones rather than Justin Fields, it’s not easy to figure out whether the rumors are smokescreens or reality.
The consensus No. 1 and No. 2 picks seem to be Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson but there is no guarantee that the flashy QB out of BYU ends up being selected over the rocket-armed Trey Lance or highly-successful Fields.
This chart shows how wildly the mock drafts have fluctuated in recent weeks despite no actual football being played.
With all five prospects getting top-10 buzz, there’s no way to guess which player the Vikings might or might not go for at 14. You could argue that Jones is a cheaper Kirk Cousins, which would be enticing for the Vikings’ bootleg system or you could make the case that they would want a better athlete in Fields or Lance. It’s not a sure thing that the Vikings have all five QBs as first-round talents.
The case for QB
There is still an argument to take any of the five, even if it’s not the Vikings’ favorite of the bunch. That case works on several levels, namely Kirk Cousins’s contract and QB randomness.
While his last two seasons have been statistically in the top quarter of the league, Cousins is set to carry a $45 million cap hit into 2022. That means that next offseason is essentially a deadline for the Vikings to either sign him to a contract extension or trade him.
They could go the Alex Smith route and draft whichever QB ends up on the board and then sit their rookie for a year before turning over the keys to the car in 2022. It’s worth noting that drafting a QB doesn’t have to make 2021 a throwaway year — unless you think the Packers tossed 2020 in the garbage by picking Jordan Love or the Chiefs threw away 2017 when they went 10-6 with Smith leading the NFL in QB rating.
The Vikings would also still have the opportunity to move forward with Cousins if they wanted. The Packers didn’t trade Rodgers this offseason after drafting Love. If Cousins played great and re-worked his contract, the Vikings could trade their top QB pick.
The ancillary bonus to a rookie QB is that the Vikings would have a talented backup. If DraftQB5 ended up playing four games, went 2-2 and saved the season, that player would be worth the pick on that value alone.
There’s no doubt that the Vikings have other needs and are still building their defense but if you consider the likely trade value of Cousins is a first-round pick, the top pick at another position of need would be on the way the following season if everything played out as planned. That value is also recouped in cap space that can be spent on other areas.
On the talent of the potential pick: We all have opinions on which QBs have a better chance to work out. You might be a fan of Lance’s legs over Jones’s accuracy or Fields’s toughness versus Wilson’s playmaking. But history tells us that every pick is a roll of the dice.
In other deep QB drafts where at least five QBs were taken in the first or second rounds, it hasn’t always been the top guys that have worked out.
In 2018, the fifth of five first-round QBs picked ended up as the one with an MVP award (Jackson). In 2014, the fifth QB taken (Garoppolo) was the first to reach a Super Bowl. In 2011, the sixth QB taken went to a Super Bowl before the others. Knowing that you don’t know is powerful in the draft. We don’t know which of the top five will turn out to be franchise QBs.
There’s not even a consensus among draft prospect graders. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein has Lance ranked third, Fields fourth and Jones fifth. PFF has Fields in third place. Mel Kiper Jr.’s big board has Jones ahead of Lance. Nobody knows who will end up being right.
The case to trade down
The sheer number of teams behind the Vikings that are looking for a quarterback would all but guarantee a huge return for a trade down. Quick count: The Patriots (15), Washington (19), Bears (20), Steelers (24) and Saints (28) all could be interested.
The Vikings might have a chance to recoup a lost pick in the Ngakoue trade and tack on a 2022 first or second-round pick in a trade-down scenario.
Giving another team the chance to pick a top QB in the draft would be a tough pill to swallow knowing that they will be forever tied to that pick if the QB turns into a star but the Vikings’ needs also match up with the strengths of the draft in the late first round.
A quick PFF draft simulation with the 24th pick has the Vikings looking at players like Notre Dame S/LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Miami pass rusher Jaelen Phillips, Oklahoma State tackle Teven Jenkins Penn State edge rusher Jayson Oweh, Stanford tackle Walker Little, Northwestern corner Greg Newsome and USC guard Alijah Vera-Tucker.
Any one of those prospects would be good fit for the Vikings despite dropping back 10 spots. Add in the possibility of more draft picks in the top 100 or so this year and even the chance at future draft picks on a roster that still has holes and the Vikings would give themselves a shot at providing Cousins with a strong enough supporting cast to compete for years to come.
The bottom line
The path to the Vikings even having a decision at quarterback is convoluted enough to call it an unlikely scenario. If the events of draft night surprise us — as they have so many times before — and one of the top five QB prospects is available at No. 14, the Vikings would have a difficult decision on their hands. Drafting a QB would give them an option for life after Cousins and the potential upside of cap freedom but it also brings along plenty of risk and costs the Vikings the opportunity to fill an immediate need.
Trading down could net big return that helps them rejuvenate the roster. That comes along with the risk of passing up on a QB who becomes great.
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Great article Mathew but I think the Vikings are in a similar place like the Eagles to many needs to take a quarterback at 14. There's a few prospects that should be available in the 3rd round not named Kyle Trask.
Excellent QB analysis! Do the "experts" also take into consideration which college QBs will be available in 2022 or 23?