Comparing stick-and-pick vs. trade-down draft sims

Two draft sims? Two draft sims.

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By Matthew Coller

The Minnesota Vikings will be facing a fork in the road on draft night: Trade down or stick-and-pick.

There are compelling arguments for both. On one hand, more bites at the apple could increase the chances of landing quality players. On the other, lower picks have lesser chance to succeed.

In order to take a closer look at what GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah may be facing when the Vikings are on the clock, let’s take a look at two different potential paths using the PFF Mock Draft Simulator.

The trade-down scenario

In this simulation, the Vikings move from the No. 24 pick to the 29th slot with Washington in order to pick up an extra fourth and sixth-round pick. By the OverTheCap draft value chart, this is a win for the Vikings but the traditional Jimmy Johnson chart it’s nearly even at 740 points for the 24th and 693 points for picks 29, 128 and 205.

Then with the 29th pick, the Vikings slide down again to the 34th spot and pick up a fourth-round selection from the Giants.

About the picks

CB, Shavon Revel — One of the most intriguing prospects in the draft, Revel is coming off an ACL tear after putting up 15 dominant games between 2023 and the beginning of 2024. In that span he allowed just 27 receptions on 63 targets into his coverage and flashed elite athletic gifts at 6-foot-3, 193 pounds. There is a “project” element to Revel but his upside is through the roof, which could give the Vikings an opportunity to develop him in a role in 2025 with plans to make him a long-term staple on the outside for years to come. Certainly there is an argument for players who could contribute quicker but Brian Flores has shown patience with his defensive picks in the past like Mekhi Blackmon and Dallas Turner.

DT, Deone Walker — A middling NFL Combine performance may drop Walker into the mid rounds, giving the Vikings an opportunity to grab a player with enormous upside. At 6-foot-7, 331 pounds, he is a specimen who posted impressive production in 2023 with 7.5 sacks. That number slipped last year but he still had a 10.5% pass-rush win rate, well above average for players of his side. This is another home run swing as Walker does come with plenty of question marks.

S, Andrew Mukuba — Kevin O’Connell might be gritting his teeth at all the defensive prospects being taken but Mukuba in the early fourth round would be a potential steal. He was highly productive on Texas’s defense in 2024 with five interceptions and just 10 catches allowed on 23 targets. His PFF draft profile compares him to Devin McCourty as a true free safety. Maybe Cam Bynum-esque?

RB, Jarquez Hunter — This draft is so full of running backs, it’s downright funny to get a player of this quality with the 128th pick. Hunter has three seasons of averaging at least 5.7 yards per carry (6.5 last year) and was one of the best in college football at yards after contact (4.1 per carry). He’s fourth all-time in rushing at Auburn, a school known for its dominant RBs. The only knock on Hunter is that he’s undersized.

WR, Pat Bryant — The Illinois receiver averaged a ridiculous 18.2 yards per reception this year and caught nearly 70% of his contested catches. He only ran a 4.61 40-yard dash but he graded well against man coverage (81.5 by PFF) and had high marks in the vertical and broad jumps at the Combine. He could carve out a role and potentially be a Jalen Nailor replacement after 2025.

G, Dylan Fairchild — He may not blow up defenders but Fairchild had elite pass blocking numbers with just 14 QB pressures allowed in the last two years and an 87.0 PFF grade. The Vikings need more development interior linemen.

G, Jackson Slater — A 94th percentile athlete by Relative Athletic Score, Slater could be a very intriguing project.

Who they passed on by trading down

While the Vikings gained a lot in draft capital, they lost out on a group of players that have the potential to become major contributors. Here’s the list of the top potential Vikings targets who they could have picked at 24:

G, Tyler Booker — DT, Walter Nolen — WR, Luther Burden — G, Grey Zabel — DT, Derrick Harmon

Who they could have picked at 34

Even with the double trade down, there were plenty of options on the board outside of Revel. The players available at 34 included:

S, Malaki Starks — S, Nick Emmanwori — DT, Darius Alexander — DT, TJ Sanders — DT, Tyleik Williams — CB, Trey Amos — CB, Azareye’h Thomas — G, Donovan Jackson — S, Xavier Watts, CB, Maxwell Hairston

You can see from those names why the trade-down scenarios appear so attractive. Per Mock Draft Database, they would be looking at six players with consensus board rankings better than 40. Odds are that the Vikings have at least one of those players ranked higher than the consensus.

Here’s a look at how the entire first round played out:

In this version of the first round, nearly all of the players projected to go before the 24th pick are off the board. There are real-world scenarios where someone like Will Johnson, Kelvin Banks or Kenneth Grant could slip through the cracks and the Vikings would decide to take them rather than moving down.

The stick-and-pick scenario