Comparing potential Vikings targets to the consensus boards

One last look at expectations for draft night

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By Matthew Coller

T’was the night before the draft and there was nothing left to break down, so we did one more analysis of players who might be crowned….

Alright folks, we are just hours away from the Minnesota Vikings either picking their next first-round player or trading out of the first round and making everybody wait another 24 hours. Either way, there is one last thing to look at before the draft: The consensus board.

Wideleft.football author (formerly of The Athletic) Arif Hasan put together 106 draft board from the most dialed-in analysts to form a consensus ranking. There are other notable websites that do something similar with a bit different process like Mock Draft Database but Hasan’s focuses on the more experienced and credible draft folks with the aim of being as accurate as possible.

The consensus board has become a particularly important tool during the draft because analysts have been able to study Hasan’s data year over year to see if there are any insights that the draft analysis community presents. It turns out that there is wisdom in crowds.

PFF studied the correlation between the consensus board and where players were actually picked and found they coincided at roughly 80%. That’s remarkable particularly because the board continued to predict players’ draft range into the middle and later rounds. It also turned out that the actual draft did not outperform the consensus by all that much.

Which brings us to the ways we can apply the consensus to our draft analysis. In the post-draft breakdowns, we can look at the reaches and steals. Historically the reaches have been much more risky than the steals have been home runs. So we’ll go back and study the Vikings’ picks and compare them to the opinions of the outside world after it’s all over on Saturday.

In the pre-draft analysis, we can look at which players have the widest range of opinions, which players fall in the range of the Vikings’ pick at 24th overall and which players could be there if they trade down. So let’s have a look at all that.

Vikings targets with the most variance

Hasan’s board includes a rating that shows how far apart analysts are on particular prospects. For example: If an NFL Network analyst had Walter Nolen as his 8th overall prospect and ESPN had him as the 33rd best player, Nolen would have a high variance score.

Here are the top-50 ranked players who could be targeted by the Vikings with the highest variance scores:

CB, Will Johnson (10th) — The Michigan corner has impressive interception numbers and is known for his outstanding instincts but he was injured last year and ther eare questions about his tackling and his pure speed that could drop him into the late-first.

LB, Jalon Walker (11th) — On the smaller side for an edge rusher but possibly not instinctual enough to be an inside linebacker in coverage, Walker could either have a team fall in love with his scheme fit or struggle to justify a top pick for him.

G/T, Kelvin Banks (15th) — Is he a tackle or guard? If the NFL sees him as a guard, it’s possible that they pick other top-notch tackle prospects first and allow him to slide.

S, Malaki Starks (17th) — Does the NFL want to spend high picks on safeties? Starks seems to be highly regarded by scouts but he might not have the high-end impact to land top rankings for some.

S, Nick Emmanwori (29th) — Some folks are enamored by his athletic profile while others are concerned he wasn’t dominant enough considering his specs at the Combine.

The takeaways here are that three top prospects could surprise everyone and be available at the 24th pick, giving the Vikings a potentially difficult choice between stopping the fall of someone like Johnson, Walker or Banks and taking their favorite prospect at the time or moving down. In the cases in which the Vikings landed Christian Darrisaw and Justin Jefferson, both were surprising falls.

On the safeties, it suggests skepticism about the positional value for a player like Starks and that picking Emmanwori would be risky. There has been evidence in the past of players who rise at the Combine ultimately failing to ever reach their athletic ceiling.