Is the Vikings' roster better now than last year?
What once appeared to be a transition offseason may have made the Vikings stronger
Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
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Once upon a time not too long ago, the consensus about the Minnesota Vikings was that they should look at the 2020 season as one of transition.
You couldn’t exactly refer to their situation as a rebuild, rather you might call it something nicer like “soft rebuild,” which acknowledges that they have far too much talent to Tank for Trevor or Yield for Fields but not quite enough juice to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl after the exits of quality starters at receiver, cornerback, defensive end and defensive tackle this offseason.
But a strong NFL Draft for the Vikings may have shifted the team’s potential for this upcoming season -- even if Las Vegas isn't buying yet with the Green Bay Packers still the favorite for the NFC North.
Over the draft’s three days, the Vikings landed multiple potential starters to a mix of developing young players at several key spots that were in question. Add the fact that they have enough cap space to potentially bolster the depth of several spots and there is a case that the overall strength of the roster could be better than it was last season.
Aging versus emerging players
We often overvalue players based on what they have done in the past rather than looking at what they will do in the future. That was certainly the case looking at how the 2019 offseason was handled by the Vikings.
They could have overhauled the roster last March instead of waiting until 2020 but they chose to stick with what had gotten them to the 2017 NFC Championship and retain players like Everson Griffen, Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph, whose best days were appearing to be behind them.
From ‘17 to ‘18, Griffen’s Pro Football Focus grade dipped from 86.5 to 68.0 and his pressure rate from 11.9% to 8.4%. But the Vikings elected to bring him back with hopes that he would bounce back after dealing with a mental health issue in ‘18. In his case they turned out to be right and his PFF grade bounced back to 77.6 and pressure rate returned to 12.0%.
This time around, however, they do not appear interested in bringing him back and rolling the dice again. Instead they are playing the odds that a 32-year-old pass rusher will struggle to maintain that type of success in a high volume of snaps. From Week 11 through the end of the ‘19 season, Griffen registered just one above average graded game by PFF and a 5.8% pressure rate.
Last March we weren’t sure if Ifeadi Odenigbo was going to be a Viking. By midway through training camp, it was clear that the seventh-round pick in ‘17 who had been cut twice was ready for a legitimate role. As a situational rusher he emerged with a 74.4 PFF grade, seven sacks and 25 pressures in 273 pass rush snaps (9.1% pressure rate).
He picked up four of his seven sacks in the final five weeks of the year and concluded the season with four pressures in a starting role against the Chicago Bears in Week 17.
“Do I think he could play full time at end? Yeah,” head coach Mike Zimmer said of Odenigbo at the NFL Combine.
While it’s no sure thing, pressure rate is a fairly stable statistic, so we can reasonably project that Odenigbo can handle a greater part of the workload and produce his fair share of disruption. Considering his back story, it’s very possible he could continue improving. Going with the emerging player over the aging player gives the Vikings the potential to reach the ballpark of the production Griffen gave them last year without the cost.
But Odenigbo likely won’t have to do it alone. The Vikings could wait and see who else separates themselves among a young group of rushers including draft picks DJ Wonnum and Kenny Willekes or still add a free agent situational rusher like Vinny Curry (15.9% pressure rate in ‘19).
When it comes to the releases of Xavier Rhodes and Linval Joseph, going with emerging over aging isn’t just cost effective, it’s an opportunity for an upgrade.
In 2017, there were few players better at their positions than Rhodes and Joseph. The Vikings’ shutdown corner allowed just a 73.2 rating on throws into his coverage despite facing the likes of Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Julio Jones. But by the end of ‘18, it was clear that version wasn’t coming back and last year Rhodes gave up an 84.3% completion percentage, four touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 127.8 rating against, fourth worst in the NFL and was penalized the fourth most.
In the past Zimmer has given his first-round corners time to develop but this year 31st overall pick Jeff Gladney will be thrown right into the fire.
It’s impossible to know with complete certainty whether any rookie can handle the NFL but Gladney comes from a complex TCU defense with a great deal of experience in college. He also only gave up a 41.5% completion percentage over the last two seasons.
Last year only eight rookie corners played 650 snaps or more and none of them gave up a higher completion percentage than Rhodes. Only DeAndre Baker allowed a higher QB rating against and three gave up ratings under 100 (Trayvon Mullen was the top rookie at 85.7 rating against).
Even a rocky transition for Gladney would be an improvement over what the Vikings received at the position last year. PFF estimates that mid-pack performance from the rookie over the same number of snaps would be a boost of 0.38 Wins Above Replacement over Rhodes, who was -0.11 last season.
What’s yet to be known is whether 2018 first-round pick Mike Hughes or the inexperienced-but-talented Holton Hill or third-rounder Cameron Dantzlier will be able to take the roles of Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander. The bar is not crazy high for either ex-Viking. Waynes gave up a 109.9 rating against and Alexander a 90.2 rating on throws into his coverage. Hughes is the most likely candidate to take over the slot duties, which could have some bumps in the road.
At nose tackle, Michael Pierce is a much more known commodity. Over the last three years, he’s been worth 0.12, 0.11 and 0.05 WAR. During the same time span, Joseph produced 0.17, 0.07 and 0.04.
The average version of Pierce, 27, is an upgrade from the 2019 version of Joseph.
The bottom line on defensive end and nose tackle is: Those positions aren’t as difficult to replace as we might think so long as the player being replaced isn’t elite (anymore).
And corner is more valuable than both spots and the Vikings’ top spot now offers a chance for a vast improvement.
The developing offensive line
Projecting improvement on the offensive line is challenging since the Vikings did not make a major change — like, say, trading for Trent Williams. And we aren’t yet sure whether rookie Ezra Cleveland will start at left tackle and bump Riley Reiff inside or if he will sit for his first year and take over in 2021.
We may not know if they will improve but we do know there is an opportunity to improve.
Kirk Cousins’s sack and pressure rates did not change from 2018 to 2019. In his first year as a Viking, he was under duress on 38.9% of drop backs (per PFF) and last year Cousins saw pressure on 36.4% of pass plays. His sack rate only dropped from 6.2% to 5.9% from ‘18 to ‘19.
The most frustrating element for the Vikings’ franchise quarterback is that his clean pocket passing has been simply outstanding. Last year he completed 77.1% of passes and registered a 118.1 rating with time to throw, fifth best in the NFL.
So it stands to reason that even a slight improvement from the O-line ranked 27th by PFF in pass blocking last year would equate to better play from Cousins.
Zimmer said as much at the Combine.
“I believe that if we can continually find a way to get better on the offensive line, that’s going to make him even better,” Zimmer said. “I don’t see him taking a step back. I see him continuing to ascend.”
While the Vikings did inquire about Williams, their pass protection issues were not as prevalent at tackle as they were on the interior. A total of 41 tackles gave up more pressures than Riley Reiff last year and Brian O’Neill gave up the fifth fewest in the NFL, per PFF. But at guard Pat Elflein allowed the 10th most and Garrett Bradbury the fifth most among centers. Josh Kline was the best interior lineman, ranking 21st of 64 in pressures but the Vikings released him earlier this offseason.
Bradbury has a chance to take a big step forward. But what are their options at guard? Oh, there are a lot. Here’s a few:
The guard position would be vastly improved by bumping Reiff inside but that would require second-round pick Ezra Cleveland to take on the Khalil Macks of the world without a full offseason to prepare.
Start Rashod Hill at left tackle and move Reiff inside
2019 fourth-round pick Dru Samia could start and have Elflein, Dakota Dozier Aviante Collins and Brett Jones battle for the other spot.
They could re-sign Kline or another veteran on the market like Ron Leary
Search for a trade partner using extra 2021 draft capital.
Aside from acquiring someone like New England’s Joe Thuney, none of these options scream massive improvement but similarly to the situation with Xavier Rhodes, the gains only need to get the team from poor to average in order to see results.
Starting Cleveland is the option with the most risk and potential reward. He has been compared to Brian O’Neill by draft analysts and GM Rick Spielman and director of college scouting Jamaal Stephenson. If he could perform like O’Neill did in Year 1, it would instantly give them passable tackle play and far better interior play with Reiff using his mauling style to battle the Za’Darius Smiths and Akiem Hicks’s inside.
But most rookie tackles have a tough go of it. Last year 10 tackles played more than 300 snaps and only two (Tytus Howard, Jawaan Taylor) were given a passing grade (above 65) by PFF. Rookie Kaleb McGary gave up a league-high 13 sacks. Andre Dillard gave up 25 pressures on just 183 pass blocking snaps.
Starting Rashod Hill is an intriguing option. The Vikings’ swing tackle was downright terrific filling in for Reiff last year, giving up just one pressure on 70 pass blocking snaps. Over his career, Hill has had 10 games at left tackle and scored an above average PFF pass blocking grade in six of them.
The other ideas have question marks. Jones has been a strong pass protector throughout his career but struggles as a run blocker. Samia has only one game under his belt. Dozier was not an upgrade as a fill-in last year.
The bottom line on potential O-line improvement is that we won’t know until training camp whether the younger players can make a difference. Cousins set career highs under Gary Kubiak’s offense with poor pass protection so any gains would be a bonus.
Replacing Stefon Diggs’s production
The Vikings are not better without Stefon Diggs. Over the past five years, the many quarterbacks throwing his way posted (including playoffs) a 70.9% completion percentage, nearly 5,000 yards, 32 touchdowns and a 108.4 quarterback rating in a season’s worth of attempts.
Last year he ranked second in yards per reception and set a career high with 1,132 yards. It will be a group effort in order to make up for the gap left by trading him to Buffalo.
That starts with Adam Thielen.
A nagging hamstring injury caused the ‘19 regular season to essentially be lost for Thielen, who finished with just 30 receptions. His previous track record, however, points to the two-time Pro Bowler being able to handle a hefty workload.
During Thielen’s absence we learned that Diggs was capable of taking on double coverage or the league’s best corners and still finding success. It’s harder to know for sure how Thielen will respond but he will have more support in 2020 than Diggs did last year.
When Thielen was out, seventh-round pick Bisi Johnson was elevated to the No. 2 receiver role and Cousins distributed other targets among Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith and Dalvin Cook. This time around, the Vikings will have first-round pick Justin Jefferson, who caught 111 passes for LSU last season and former Titan Tajae Sharpe.
*Note: Dropping by 0.3 wins is approximately the difference between Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb’s WAR from last year*
While Jefferson will receive much of the attention as the top draft pick, the growth of Smith could be the boost the Vikings need in order to have greater cumulative group of weapons than last season.
Including the game against Detroit where Thielen got hurt and Kansas City in which he only played one series, Smith amassed 24 catches in seven games. For the entire season, Cousins produced a 109.3 rating when targeting his rookie tight end.
At one of the most difficult positions in football, Smith showed he could hang. Incremental growth would give the Vikings another versatile weapon to soften the blow of moving Diggs.
The bottom line is that we do not know yet whether Jefferson can take over Diggs’s role and the fact that zero rookies topped 60 catches last season should temper immediate expectations but if he plays any type of positive role and Smith rises to the challenge, the supporting cast for Thielen as the No. 1 can be better than when Diggs was playing the same role.
Left over questions
The Vikings came out of the draft with a little bit of cap space. Per OverTheCap, $12.2 million to be exact. Some will very likely go to a Dalvin Cook contract extension but that can be evened out by an Anthony Harris extension. So where can they spend?
With quality veteran corners like Dre Kirkpatrick and Logan Ryan on the market, it would significantly add to the security at the cornerback position rather than relying on Gladney and potentially Dantzler.
A veteran situational rusher could also be valuable as a younger player like DJ Wonnum develops.
Will they be better?
The roster has a chance to be stronger. Whether the Vikings’ record will be better is a tougher question. Last year the Vikings had the ninth easiest schedule in team history per Pro-Football Reference’s strength-of-schedule metric. This time around they match up against the very difficult NFC South, which now features Tom Brady.
The Vikings were also impressively healthy last season. Every defensive starter played at least 500 snaps and eight starters played more than 750 snaps. On the offensive side, the O-line saw every starter in for at least 70% of total plays. They will not have the infrastructure to handle injuries quite as well with so many inexperienced players.
Things like the kicking game, fumble luck and turning opportunities into turnovers on defense also went the Vikings’ way last year and have the potential to fluctuate.
But the bottom line is that an offseason that held many questions has resulted in the Vikings’ roster remaining strong enough to meet playoff expectations in 2020.
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