Camp countdown: Breaking down the top training camp storylines
Since it looks like camp is happening, what will we be watching the closest?
*Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
COVID, COVID, COVID
There will come a day in which we go 24 hours without hearing about COVID-19 or health-and-safety measures or testing or masks or risks or anything pandemic related.
That day is not coming soon.
All 32 teams enter training camp with an incredible challenge ahead of them. Even with months of effort that has gone into making TCO Performance Center as safe as it can possibly be, there is no guarantee that COVID will be kept out when players are battling face-to-face in practices.
As we go through the phases of camp — which will start with initial testing, then move to strength and conditioning, unpadded practices and then padded practices before the season begins — we will be constantly monitoring the success of the league in working its way through the offseason.
Without a bubble, the odds of positive tests are high. Vikings trainer Eric Sugarman said that the team will be delivering a strong message to players and staff that the healthier they can be, the better they can play.
“We have to get everyone to understand it is an absolute competitive advantage in the NFL in 2020 to adhere to these protocols, to take heed of all the warnings that we've all been doing -- some better than others -- the last four months with regards to wearing a face covering or regards to social distancing, washing your hands, etc.,” Sugarman said. “The team that does it the best clearly has an advantage because they will be healthier in theory, and obviously we know healthy teams tend to win more.”
Let’s hope we don’t have to answer the question: How many positive tests is too many to keep practicing. But there will be plenty of questions to answer like: If a player in a position group tests positive, will everyone in that room have to quarantine?
One important note in the agreement between players and the NFL is that games have to be played in order for players to get paid. That should be a pretty darn good incentive for them to take every possible precaution.
Limited padded practices and lack of preseason
Sorry Vikings fans, the first time you will see your team doing anything that looks remotely like real football is when they step on the field at US Bank Stadium Week 1 against the Green Bay Packers. The first time that reporters get a look at real practices won’t be until the middle of August. And it appears that you won’t be getting those classic phone videos of nice throws and catches from camp either.
Because this is all unprecedented, none of us know exactly how this is going to look on the field but the most likely scenario is that we see teams putting everything in those two weeks or so of padded practices into getting the starters ready to play. There will still be opportunities for scout team players to shine in practices but those opportunities will be in a very small window.
“Without preseason games we're going to have to set up situations throughout practice where we're, number one, we're going to have live contact,” Mike Zimmer said. “We're going to have to evaluate guys with some of our younger guys against our better guys and try to evaluate those players in those situations, so the evaluation part will probably be the biggest thing for a lot of these young guys. We haven't seen a lot of these guys in person since January 13 for the veterans and we haven't seen rookies in person at all, so we're going to have to start with the baby steps: footwork and hand placement and technique.”
Teams will cut from 90 to 80 players before the real practices get going, which makes it extremely tough on all the undrafted free agents hoping for their shot. Players on “the bubble” are probably going to be evaluated by how quickly they pick up the offense and defense and expanded practice squads will be loaded with teams’ project players.
Preseason games generally don’t have a big impact on roster decisions (even Mike Zimmer acknowledged this last year) but one area the Vikings are sure to miss is the leeway to tweak and experiment. Want to try a new offensive line combo or cornerback group? You’ll have only a handful of practice reps to decide whether it’s going to work or not.
All that said, any rookies who stand out under these circumstances will instantly make a name for themselves.
“We might have to let a second-year guy go because [while] this guy might not be great in week 1, week 2, week 3, maybe week 7 he’s really going to come up,” Zimmer said. “We’re going to have to look at the long-term picture of all these things.”
Stefon Diggs’s replacement(s)
*The Vikings will rely on Irv Smith Jr. this year to raise his game. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
If you have fooled yourself into thinking that the Vikings can easily replace Stefon Diggs, take this into consideration: Since coming into the league in 2015, Diggs has been targeted by Vikings QBs have completed 70.9% of their attempts to Diggs for 12.7 yards per completion and thrown 32 touchdowns with a QB rating of 108.4.
For comparison’s sake:
DeAndre Hopkins’s career rating when targeted is 93.0 (per PFF)
Julio Jones: 106.8
Antonio Brown: 102.8
Amari Cooper: 100.5
Odell Beckham: 102.0
You get the point.
Asking first-round pick Justin Jefferson to fill Diggs’s shoes isn’t realistic considering only two rookie receivers were targeted more than 90 times last season. The more probable scenario is that it requires at team effort. In camp we will be looking for signs of progress from second-year players Irv Smith Jr. and Bisi Johnson along with how free agent Tajae Sharpe and third-year receiver Chad Beebe fit into the fold.
Smith Jr. highly impressed Gary Kubiak last year with his quick progress in a very difficult “move tight end” job. He has the potential to be one of the league’s breakout players.
Will anyone else emerge? Last year Johnson won a job and ended up playing a significant role by the middle of the season when Adam Thielen got hurt. There are plenty of candidates in players like Alexander Hollins, Dillon Mitchell, KJ Osborn and Davion Davis to make noise.
Hollins starts in the lead because of his time on the active roster and playing time in Week 17 against Chicago. Mitchell showed deep-threat potential in college — he’s one of the players who really could have used a second full training camp. Osborn has a shot as a punt returner.
Camp won’t tell us much about whether Thielen can handle the load as a true No. 1 receiver but his history and Kubiak’s both suggest that he can. When targeted over his career, Vikings QBs have a 110.4 rating.
The cornerbacks
Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings
It has been a really long time since Mike Zimmer didn’t know who his starting cornerbacks were heading into training camp. Since 2016, Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes have been on the outside and along the way Terence Newman and Mackensie Alexander played significant roles as well. Aside from an occasional cameo by Mike Hughes and injury fill-in by Holton Hill, those four are about the only people who have played corner for Zimmer in the last four years.
Now he’s set to have new starters at both outside spots and the slot corner position. Who those starters will be is complete speculation heading into camp. The favorites for the trio of open gigs are first-round pick Jeff Gladney, Hill and Hughes.
While you generally wouldn’t expect the top player of the three to play in the slot, teams are using nickel packages 70% or more of the time in the NFL today, making that job very important. Hughes has two training camps and a handful of game reps in the slot, which gives him the leg up on a position that is more complex than outside corner.
That’s how it looks heading into camp. Everything might change in a jiffy when padded practices start. Intriguing seventh-round pick Kris Boyd saw playing time in Week 17 last year, Cam Dantzler may be farther along than expected after playing in the SEC and even fifth-rounder Harrison Hand or undrafted corner Nevelle Clarke could surprise.
Can they replace Everson Griffen?
Zimmer said on Saturday that he would like Griffen to return if possible so maybe Everson Griffen will replace Everson Griffen. But if he isn’t back in Minnesota, the presumptive favorite for starting defensive end is Ifeadi Odenigbo and then there are lots of questions, including whether Odenigbo is ready to play 50-plus snaps per game rather than working as a rotational rusher.
As for players who will find their way into the mix, the competition is as wide open as Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen versus Cover-1. Veterans Eddie Yarbrough and Anthony Zettel have a chance to win a job but they are short on the upside that Zimmer alluded to on Saturday. Draft picks DJ Wonnum and Kenny Willekes could get thrown into the fire right away if they believe there will be improvement throughout the season.
If someone does shine as a rotational rusher, Odenigbo could move inside in certain circumstances the way Brian Robison did regularly when Danielle Hunter emerged.
If a situational defensive tackle like James Lynch, Jalyn Holmes or Hercules Mata’afa emerges, Odenigbo might end up playing every snap. You could take away from Zimmer’s comments about Griffen that they aren’t entirely sure how this is going to play out.
Dalvin Cook’s no-show or big contract
Zimmer said Cook told him that he will being showing up to camp. Cook’s agent said that didn’t happen.
That certainly seems to reduce the odds of him coming to camp without a contract but the Vikings also have leverage in the form of fines (that have to be paid now under the CBA) and the loss of an accrued season.
If Cook does arrive without a contract, there will be questions throughout about whether he will be working out a long-term deal with the Vikings or playing out his contract to hit free agency or be franchise tagged in 2021.
In the past the Vikings’ front office has rarely let talented players walk out the door in their primes. This situation is a little different because of the nature of the position. Any way running backs have been studied — whether it’s based on age or contract history or expected points added etc. — always tends to find that they are high risk for signing to mega contracts.
Cook is still in his best years according to the running back age curve and Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey’s deals provide pretty easy parameters to get something done. It will come down to whether the Vikings want to hand out top dollar to a running back and how much hardball Cook’s side wants to play.
Who’s starting on the offensive line?
Last year the Vikings graded 25th in pass blocking by PFF and Kirk Cousins was pressured on the 10th highest percentage of drop backs despite Kevin Stefanski and Gary Kubiak’s best efforts to keep him out of danger on bootlegs and rollouts. The No. 1 goal of the O-line will be improving those numbers but deciding on the “best five” will not be easy with only two weeks to see live action.
Will they go with veteran players and move Riley Reiff inside and have Rashod Hill start at left tackle? Will they go inexperienced and use Dru Samia at right guard and Ezra Cleveland somewhere? Will someone like seventh-rounder Kyle Hinton have enough time to emerge? Do they believe in Pat Elflein improving in Year 2 at guard?
The O-line combo is a lock to be a daily story in the days leading up to opening day.
Rookies playing catch-up
At very least the Vikings enter camp with expectations for first-round picks Justin Jefferson and Jeff Gladney to play right away and for a number of other rookies to be involved in some capacity. They are facing the toughest uphill battle since the lockout in 2011 (arguably the most difficult ever considering the unusual circumstances for everyone).
“Especially with the young guys, we've got 15 rookies that we drafted, it's going to be extremely important that we get them onto the field,” Zimmer said. “Them not really being with the players other than in virtual meetings prior to this, trying to get some team chemistry I think is going to be important as well, so we're very fortunate to have so much space in this building that we can have some meetings that aren't virtual.”
Experience playing in college could prove helpful for both players. Jefferson played in a complex offense that asked him to line up in many different types of formations just as the Vikings will this year and Gladney played all four years at TCU. But nothing can simulate an NFL offense and defense or the competition Jefferson and Gladney are set to face.
Based on Zimmer’s comments, they might each be asked to sink or swim early on. Others with a legitimate chance to play some type of role include Ezra Cleveland, Cam Dantzler, DJ Wonnum, James Lynch, KJ Osborn (punt returner) and Kenny Willekes. If either starting safety gets hurt, Brian Cole or Josh Metellus may be thrust into a starting job too.
All of their progress will be worth tracking closely.
Setting expectations
In a season in which it’s hard to know whether we will even play 16 games much less how everything will play out on the field, it’s especially hard to set the bar for this Vikings team. So long as Kirk Cousins is here along with numerous Pro Bowlers, they should be expected to make the playoffs. But can we really scrutinize them if things go sideways with inexperienced players or if there are absences due to COVID? It will be a moving target.
At the moment the Vikings appear to have a challenging schedule but that could change quickly. We will have a much better feel about the direction the team should be expected to go by the end of camp.
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