Brian Flores' return sets a baseline for the Vikings
The team announced on Wednesday that Flores signed a new contract
By Matthew Coller
One of the fundamental truths of the NFL through the years has been that it is very, very hard to sustain good defensive play. But there are exceptions to every rule.
Over the last five seasons, Brian Flores has operated five straight defenses that ranked in the top half of the NFL in points allowed and three in the top 10. In four of those seasons, his clubs were in the top 10 in takeaways and in four of them top 15 in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
Since Flores’ defense was built in his vision in the past two seasons, the Vikings have given up the sixth fewest points (665), allowed the fifth lowest quarterback rating against their coverage, racked up the second most sacks, ranked third in opposing third down conversion percentage and given up the third lowest opposing yards per rush attempt.
I’d say that’s pretty, pretty, pretty consistent defensive performance right there.
So when the Vikings announced on Wednesday that Flores has signed a new contract with the team and will be retained unless he gets a head coaching job, the franchise gave themselves a very good chance of running back another excellent defense in 2026.
What that does for the Vikings is gives them a chance to compete with the beasts of the NFC North. The Packers, Lions and Bears all have good-to-great quarterbacks and offenses and other squads on the Vikings’ 2026 schedule like San Francisco, New England and Indianapolis sported impressive offenses this year as well.
If they were forced to change coordinators after three years of Flores building the foundation of his system, there is a high percentage chance that they would not have been able to produce at the same elite level. While other defensive minds like Raheem Morris and Daronte Jones have a lot to like, Flores has built a special rapport with his players. The defense has been built with the DC and the veterans like Harrison Smith, Blake Cashman, Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard together to best fit their skill sets. It’s been described as an amoeba or moving target. This isn’t something easily recreated.
“Brian has a unique ability to connect with players, understand their skill sets, and put them in positions to maximize their impact on the field,” said head coach Kevin O’Connell via release. “The identity of our defense is a reflection of his leadership and preparation. On a personal level, I’ve really valued the relationship we’ve built over the last three years, and that shared trust, alignment and high standard will continue to be critical to our success.”
The Vikings defense will retain much of its talent from 2025 going forward. The players under contract include Greenard, Van Ginkel, Cashman, Dallas Turner, Jalen Redmond, Jonathan Allen, Byron Murphy Jr., Isaiah Rodgers, Josh Metellus, Jay Ward, Theo Jackson, Levi Drake Rodriguez and a handful of project players.
There are questions on the roster, including whether Harrison Smith will return, if they keep Javon Hargrave and if they can re-sign linebacker Eric Wilson (which seems very important now that Flores is back) but we can reasonably project that there will be additions i.e. a young cornerback, veteran safety and possibly another DT.
With so much fundamental knowledge of the defense already in place, the natural variance on defense is much less for the Vikings.
The consistency of the defense makes it easier to focus efforts on the offensive side. The historical data suggests that teams who reach the Super Bowl generally outscore their opponents by somewhere in the ballpark of 100 points or more over a season. This year’s four finalists produced +191, +172, +170 and +90. The Vikings were +11 as Flores’ defense held up its end of the bargain by ranking seventh in points allowed. But the 26th ranked offense would need to gain at least 90 more points to put them in serious discussion as a contender.
With Flores back, the onus turns to O’Connell to get much greater production out of the quarterback position. The Vikings finished 30th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt and 29th in passing touchdowns this season behind a combination of JJ McCarthy, Carson Wentz and Max Brosmer. Per Pro-Football Reference, their production was worth -40.2 points.
Where does that massive leap come from? The supporting cast on offense isn’t likely to undergo an enormous change but the Vikings should have an opportunity to improve their offensive line with better health luck in 2026 and possibly add fresher legs to the backfield. Otherwise, it all comes down to either JJ McCarthy making enormous improvements in Year 2 as a starter or the Vikings finding another QB who can get them there.
The potential options are all over the map if they are not sold on McCarthy’s development curve. Whether they can pull off a trade to get Mac Jones or Geno Smith or lure Kyler Murray to Minnesota for a career rehab season or bring back Kirk Cousins or get Aaron Rodgers for his Brett Favre redux ride, it’s on the shoulders of O’Connell to make the right call at QB and get the passing game back on track.
It doesn’t matter how it happens, it has to happen.
When we look at the current NFL landscape when it comes to head coaches, there seems to be less and less patience every year. Sean McDermott went to the postseason seven times and got fired. Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh are locks for the Hall of Fame and won’t be returning to their locations. The Dolphins had a pedestrian 7-10 season and pulled the trigger. Not that the Wilfs would be right to be reactionary like some of those teams but their peers don’t often sit around for five years without a playoff win.
Retaining Flores’ services gives O’Connell a fighting chance at making that happen. As we have seen in the playoffs, defense is winning. The top five defenses in the NFL all made the playoffs as did numbers 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13 in points allowed. Flores’ teams have been right in that mix every year since he joined the Vikings and will be expected to be there again this season.
There is a caveat to all of this: The new contract for Flores won’t be worth the paper it’s written on if a team offers him a head coaching job.
ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that there is still serious interest in Flores as a head coach, presumably from the two teams that have interviewed him: The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Both teams have casted a wide net in their interview process but the Steelers had Flores back for a second interview. Considering his history with them and their previous head coaches Bill Cowher and Mike Tomlin, the fit seems pretty natural.
Will the Steelers break rank with the rest of the NFL owners and overlook Flores’ lawsuit to hand him the keys to their legendary organization? It would certainly make sense since they are also a quarterback-less team that isn’t drafting high enough to grab their next franchise guy and needs a defensive mastermind to keep them in contention.
If Pittsburgh decides to go in another direction, this could be looked back upon as the day the Vikings kept themselves in contention. If he leaves, then it will be a side note that he was going to comeback. Then things get interesting with defensive backs coach Daronte Jones, who has interviewed with Dallas, the New York Jets and the Green Bay Packers. Is he the guy to take over if Flores gets hired as an HC? Or could they still have to look outside?
Or did Flores sign back with the Vikings because he felt that the odds were not in his favor to land either NFC North job?
If he doesn’t get a gig, the question will still exist in the back of everyone’s mind: How did it get to the point where he could have left as a free agent? Why didn’t he lock in a deal last summer with everyone else?
But regardless of the reason, they need him and he should have everything to keep Minnesota’s defense at the top.
I'm not a motorsports guy, but if the car's engine is constantly broken, and in the rare instances that it actually turns over, provides the HP of a ride-on mower, nothing else matters. That pall smothers the entire offseason, alas.
That aside, good GMing isn't paying Wilson a premium to stay, it's finding the next guy who can do those things at a similarly cheap price.
It would have been nice to get a second year of control, as was done with Rodgers. There is no reason to think Wilson had material leverage, and adding a second year with no guaranteed money (or a guarantee that doesn't trigger until the new league year) would have giving the Vikings a lot more upside for zero added risk. In a tenure-long theme, this is the exact sort of thing one would expect a GM who comes from a business background, not a scouting background, to understand and maximize. *sigh*
I never doubted he'd return to MN as a DC. A lateral move never made sense. Selfish to say, because he so deserves the HC post, but I'm crossing my fingers for his return to the Vikings.