Breaking down the Vikings schedule by difficulty
Picking every game of the schedule and looking at key factors for each game
By Matthew Coller
We have a schedule, folks. Let’s dive right into every game, broken down by degree of difficulty, key stats and a pick…
Week 1: at Chicago Bears (MNF)
Difficulty rank: 8
Key stat: Caleb Williams threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns with a season-high five Big-Time Throws vs. Vikings at Solider Field in 2024
About the ranking:
The Vikings went 2-0 against the Chicago Bears last year but the results showed the tale of two Calebs. In the first game at Soldier Field, QB Caleb Williams looked like Road Runner and the Vikings’ defense was Wylie Coyote. His narrow escapes and clutch drives late in the game nearly allowed Chicago to pull off an upset. When they played him at US Bank Stadium, Williams looked befuddled and frustrated. Which version will they get on opening day 2025?
In his favor, Williams now has a head coach who has given the Vikings and Brian Flores’s defense nightmares over the past two seasons in Ben Johnson. With Detroit, he often found ways to counteract Flores’s blitzes and take advantage of holes in the zones. Will Johnson be able to bring flavors of his Detroit offenses to Chicago? A rebuilt offensive line in front of Williams certainly won’t hurt.
Pick: Win
The Bears are rejuvenated but we can expect an adjustment period for Ben Johnson and the Vikings have washed away the Soldier Field curse in recent years.
Week 2: vs. Atlanta Falcons (SNF)
Difficulty rank: 12
Key stat: Michael Penix Jr. led the NFL in Big-Time Throw % (min. 100 passes)
About the ranking:
The Falcons jumped the gun going into full win-now mode last year by signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year contract with $100 million guaranteed. But it actually may have turned out to be the reset season that they needed. At the end of 2024, Michael Penix Jr. got an opportunity to start and showed that he has marvelous arm talent to go along with a bevy of weapons that includes Drake London, Bijan Robinson and occasionally Kyle Pitts. His arm wasn’t enough to get the Falcons into the postseason though, in part because Atlanta’s defense was horrendous. That was certainly on display when Sam Darnold dropped five touchdowns on them. This offseason they have gone to great lengths, including trading next year’s first-round pick for James Pearce, to get better on the defensive side. They will likely be a tougher opponent than in 2024 but when inexperienced QBs make their debuts at US Bank Stadium — especially against Brian Flores — it doesn’t often go well. Penix Jr. will have to bring the cannon that day to make things interesting.
Pick: Win
Week 3: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Difficulty rank: 7
Key stat: Joe Burrow led the NFL with 289 yards passing per game in 2024
About the ranking:
There was a ton of chatter about whether the Bengals would trade away receiver Tee Higgins and look to reset the franchise after a season in which Joe Burrow was marvelous and they missed the playoffs. Instead they brought back Higgins and did not overhaul the roster like many expected. While their offensive line and defense are still very suspect, Cincinnati has one of the five best quarterbacks in the world and one of the only receiver duos that can argue they are just as good as Jefferson/Addison.
The best thing that Burrow does is pick apart defenses, which makes him a tougher challenge for Flores than most QBs. We can also expect that he won’t struggle with the stadium atmosphere or noise having played in every atmosphere imaginable during his career so far. This game has the potential to be an instant classic shootout.
Pick: Loss
Week 4: at Pittsburgh Steelers (Dublin)
Difficulty rank: 14
Key stat: The Steelers ranked 20th in offensive EPA in 2024
About the ranking:
The Steelers had a pretty darn serious home-field advantage taken away from them for this game and that’s a big benefit for the Vikings. Rather than JJ McCarthy having to stare down the nasty Pittsburgh defense with the raucous fan base at their backs, now the young QB should feel right at home with a large contingent of Vikings fans in attendance in Ireland.
No matter who plays quarterback for the Steelers, they still do not have the firepower to compete with the Vikings. Their trade for DK Metcalf was negated by having to move George Pickens to Pittsburgh because he could not get along with the franchise. Their offensive line and running game also didn’t get any major boosts in the offseason. The only thing they can lean on is that Mike Tomlin knows how to keep games close and oftentimes overseas the battles are closer to 1990s football than 2025.
Pick: Win
Week 5: at Cleveland Browns (London)
Difficulty rank: 17
Key stat: Browns allowed the sixth lowest scoring percentage on defense
About the ranking:
The Browns offense can’t get any more pathetic than it was last year, right? Right? Well, right now we have no idea who will be playing quarterback for Cleveland. You can imagine that Flores is licking his chops at the possibility of that person being either Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel but even if it is Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett, the advantage still massively leans on the Vikings side.
Similar to Pittsburgh, the only edge that Cleveland has is a talented defense. They still boast having the best pass rusher in the NFL in Myles Garrett and they didn’t tear down a good cornerback group that gave the Vikings problems in joint practices. If the Browns are going to keep it close against the Vikings, it will have to be because their defense was able to cause mistakes.
Pick: Win
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Difficulty rank: 2
Key stat: The Eagles rushed for 3,048 yards in 2024
About the ranking:
If there is one area that the Vikings defense might have slip from 2024 with their offseason moves, it’s their defense against the run. They allowed the second fewest rushing yards last season and tied for fourth in yards per carry against. In free agency they swapped a stout run defender in Jonathan Bullard for interior pass rushers Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. Certainly the new players are more gifted than Bullard but he was able to stuff gaps and hold guards and tackles at the point of attack, whereas we are expecting Allen and Hargrave to be focused more on getting after the passer. How will that impact them against the mighty Eagles running game?
As we know from Adrian Peterson, it’s really, really hard to repeat at 2,000-yard season so maybe the Vikings will see Saquon Barkley at a better time than the poor 2024 Eagles opponents but Philadelphia didn’t have many changes on their offense outside of losing Mekhi Becton to free agency. With one of the elite running QBs and the premier RB in the NFL, Philly’s run game is going to present one heck of a challenge.
That doesn’t even address the other side of the ball, where the rebuilt Vikings O-line is going to be tested by a deep and nasty defensive line, led by the best DT in the league Jalen Carter. Plus Philly drafted two very good cornerbacks in 2024, giving them possibly the best shot of anyone on the Vikings schedule at slowing Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Pick: Loss
Week 8: at Los Angeles Chargers (TNF)
Difficulty rank: 8
Key stat: Chargers were the No. 1 defense in the NFL in points allowed
About the ranking:
Just from a scheduling perspective, this one is tough. The Vikings play a very difficult opponent at home and then fly to Los Angeles on short notice to play a violent football team with a good coach and good quarterback. Where have I heard that one before? Oh yes, last season when the Vikings lost to the Lions at home and then played the Rams four days later.
One of the things that makes the Chargers so difficult for a short-week game is that they specialize in not turning the ball over. Harbaugh’s style of running and playing it safe with Justin Herbert resulted in Los Angeles giving the ball away fewer times than anyone in the league. No doubt that helped the defense avoid allowing points and kept them well rested on the sideline. In a battle of a high-variance, big-play approach like the Vikings and a grind-you-down style of the Chargers, it will take the Vikings digging deep for this one. Still, the club with the more explosive offense deserves the benefit of the edge.
Pick: Win
Week 9: at Detroit Lions
Difficulty rank: 1
Key stat: Kevin O’Connell is 1-5 against Dan Campbell
About the ranking:
You saw Week 18, right? Suddenly Ford Field is one of the more difficult venues in the NFL. We are a long way from the days of Lions fans wearing bags on their heads and holding “Fire Matt Millen” signs.
The Lions, who went 15-2 in 2024, may have lost their offensive and defensive coordinators but they did not lose many pieces to their roster this offseason. They are entering 2025 with an argument as the most complete, top-to-bottom team in the NFL with elite weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs, a QB who executes the offense as well as anyone and a defense that is getting back No. 2 overall pick Aidan Hutchinson and added cornerback DJ Reed. They used a first-round pick on a nose tackle to further solidify their D-line, which had already become quite strong with Alim McNeil, Levi Onwuzurike and DJ Reader.
The only question mark for the Lions is whether they can retain elite offensive line play after losing guard Kevin Zeitler.
In general the Lions and Vikings have played awesome games since Dan Campbell and Kevin O’Connell took over as coaches. Five of the six contests have been separated by 11 points or fewer and there has been at least 50 total points produced in every game except the Week 18 Vikings meltdown.
Pick: Loss
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Week 10: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Difficulty rank: 3
Key stat: Lamar Jackson ranked No. 1 by PFF in 2024, No. 1 in passer rating and had just eight turnover-worthy plays
About the ranking:
Has anybody Googled Lamar Jackson’s stats from last year? Goodness gracious. The two-time MVP was deserving of a third in 2024 when he threw 41 touchdowns to just four interceptions and added 915 yards rushing. There is no more dangerous player in the league than Jackson, especially now that he has become a wildly efficient passer (led the NFL in both passing yards per attempt and rushing yards per attempt).
The only thing working in the Vikings’ favor against Jackson is that he hasn’t played inside US Bank Stadium before.
Outside of that, facing Baltimore is tough, tough, tough. Derrick Henry showed no signs of aging last season with 1,921 yards on the ground and the Ravens defense still finished top-10 in points allowed after a slow start. They added another dynamic safety in Malaki Starks in the draft as well.
Pick: Loss
Week 11: vs. Chicago Bears
Difficulty rank: 13
Key stat: The Bears lost 7 games by one score in 2024
About the ranking:
By Week 11, we will have a pretty good idea of whether Ben Johnson is thriving or struggling as a head coach. Until we can know that information, one thing we can safety guess is that he can’t be worse than Matt Eberflus at handling late-game situations. Chicago blew game after game in 2024 when they had opportunities to win, the most notable losses coming against Washington when they allowed a Hail Mary to lose the game… and then against Detroit when they forgot how to call a timeout. The bar is very low for Johnson to be better at getting the Bears one-score wins.
Chicago hasn’t just (likely) improved at game management but in terms of weapons too by drafting Colston Loveland in the first round and Luther Burden in the second. How those players develop over the year could play a big factor in the degree of difficulty the Vikings are facing in Week 11.
But until Williams proves he can handle the US Bank Stadium heat, the Vikings get the pick here.
Pick: Win
Week 12: at Green Bay Packers
Difficulty rank: 5
Key stat: Over the last two years, the Packers are 11-6 at home and 9-8 on the road
About the ranking:
Kevin O’Connell has figured out how to get his team to wear the right shoes at Lambeau Field but that doesn’t mean that it’s ever going to be an easy place to play. Even last year when the Vikings jumped out to a big lead against the Packers, they still found a way to bring the game down to the final moments. The crowd and overall mystique combined with a strong roster and good coaching always make the Packers a formidable foe but this year they might be even tougher if their weapons come together around Jordan Love. The Pack drafted two wide receivers including a first-rounder to go along with Jayden Reed and a top-notch running game surrounding Josh Jacobs.
Even if adding youth to the receiving room doesn’t click right away, the road game against Green Bay is always a great litmus test for the Vikings.
Pick: Loss
Week 13: at Seattle Seahawks
Difficulty rank: 10
Key stat: Sam Darnold tied for third in PFF’s Big-Time Throws in 2024
About the ranking:
The Vikings were taken aback by the Seattle atmosphere last year. While it might not be at the same level of the Legion of Boom days, Seahawks fans can still ramp it up and make communication challenging. This time Sam Darnold will get to be on the right side of that noise, which gives him a chance to make some big plays versus the Vikings’ secondary that is mostly unproven heading into the season. What we learned about Darnold last year was that he plays boom-or-bust football. If the Vikings catch him on a bad day, everything will be fine. If he gets hot and his deep shots are landing, look out.
Pick: Win
Week 14: vs. Washington Commanders
Difficulty rank: 4
Key stat: Jayden Daniels had a 97.9 passer rating and ran for 135 yards in the playoffs
About the ranking:
This time last year, Washington might have ranked as the easiest team on the Vikings’ schedule. What a difference a quarterback and head coach makes. After Jayden Daniels set the world on fire in his first year and then showed in the playoffs that he is impossible to intimidate, he already has a case for a top-five quarterback in the NFL. The former LSU star produced a 100.1 QB rating in the regular season and rushed for 891 yards — as a rookie.
Sensing the moment, the Commanders went to work this offseason. They acquired receiver Deebo Samuel and star left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They also improved their interior D-line with Eddie Goldman and Javon Kinlaw and tacked on an extra corner by signing Jonathan Jones.
Washington looks like they are ready to compete for a Super Bowl for years to come. If things go the way we expect, this might not be the only time the Vikings have to see them in 2025.
Pick: Loss
Week 15: at Dallas Cowboys (SNF)
Difficulty rank: 9
Key stat: Dallas ranked 5th worst in total defensive Expected Points Added last season
About the ranking:
Because they did not have a big offseason, the Cowboys will probably be discounted by a lot of folks as a difficult matchup on the schedule for the Vikings. Even the Vegas line setters have them at only 7.5 wins but they aren’t that far removed from running out an elite offense driven by Dak Prescott throwing to some good weapons. If he is still capable of that and Dallas’s defense gets back on track following a disaster, injury-riddled year in 2024, they should still be a tough opponent.
If they have not figured things out with the linebackers and secondary, this could be the type of game where Justin Jefferson goes absolutely bananas. Nobody loves being on national TV and playing against the most popular team more than Jefferson.
Pick: Win
Week 16: at New York Giants
Difficulty rank: 16
Key stat: Russell Wilson posted 89.1 and 97.3 PFF grades on intermediate and deep passing, respectively
About the ranking:
Here’s a fun game: Who will the quarterback of the Giants be when the Vikings play them in Week 16? Does Russell Wilson make it that long? Jaxon Dart? Jameis Winston? Kent Graham? Dave Brown? Danny Kanell?
The uncertainty surrounding the QB position alone makes this game a pretty easy pick but if there is one aspect that could make it interesting it’s that Wilson had his moments for the Steelers last year throwing the ball downfield and ultimately got them into the postseason. The G-Men have a pretty stout defense that improved even more with the signing of Jevon Holland and draft pick of Abdul Carter, so if Wilson can hit some deep shots to Malik Nabers, they can be somewhat dangerous.
Pick: Win
Week 17: vs. Detroit Lions (Christmas Day)
Difficulty rank: 6
Key stat: Jared Goff career 105.1 QB rating vs. Vikings, Jahmyr Gibbs averages 5.5 YPC vs. Vikings
About the ranking:
If there is one quarterback who has not given a rat’s behind about playing inside US Bank Stadium, it’s Jared Goff. In his last three trips to Minnesota, Goff has completed 72.6% of his passes, totaled 814 yards, four touchdowns to one interception and been sacked just five times. He has a 103.3 passer rating in those games.
You know who else really loves playing against the Vikings? Jahmyr Gibbs. In two games at US Bank Stadium, he has 196 yards at 6.5 yards per carry.
But Detroit’s stars aren’t the only ones who have shined in Vikings-Lions games. Justin Jefferson has played 14 total games against Detroit in his career and he’s racked up 72 catches for 1,208 yards, the most against any team by far. (Almost) any time these two teams get together, there are offensive fireworks.
Pick: Win
Week 18: vs. Green Bay Packers
Difficulty rank: 11
Key stat: Packers were fifth in total rushing yards and sixth in yards per carry
About the ranking:
Doesn’t get any better than this, right?
Two years ago the Packers smacked the Vikings with the season on the line but last year the Vikings ran over Green Bay to pick up their 14th win of the season. How’s it going to go this time around? This matchup seems almost guaranteed to have something massive on the line, whether it’s playoff position or a postseason berth. Who knows how either team will look by the end of the season but with the state of the NFC North, we can guess it will have some serious juice.
Pick: Win
FINAL RECORD: 11-6
I would happily take 11-6
If Goldman and Kinlaw are an upgrade in DC over Allen, things will have unfolded unexpectedly and poorly.