Big cap increase highlights Vikings savvy cap management
The Vikings have more space than expected -- what will they do with it?
By Matthew Coller
We are far enough removed from the Minnesota Vikings being completely handcuffed by the salary cap that it’s easy to forget some of the things that they were forced to do in order to simply be cap compliant.
Whether it was endlessly restructuring contracts to make room for bottom-barrel filler free agents like Kendall Wright, Tajae Sharpe or Bashaud Breeland or tossing in career backups at guard with hopes that they could survive the season or extending players who were past their prime with hopes of squeezing one more year out of them, the Zimmer/Spielman/Cousins-era Vikings backed themselves into a corner with the cap and eventually paid a price.
You know who else paid for their salary cap sins? Current general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. When he took over in 2022, the Vikings were old and expensive and the option was not on the table from ownership for him to do a complete teardown upon arrival. So the KAM front office pulled some of the same levers that they used during the Zimmer/Spielman era, extending Cousins, using void years to sneak veterans like Patrick Peterson and Za’Darius Smith underneath the cap and then praying that replacement level players and rookies would be fine at key positions like cornerback and guard. Spoiler: They were not fine.
Finally after the 2022 season, that all changed. Rather than try to work out new contracts with players like Eric Kendricks, Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, Za’Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson, they decided that being cap healthy in the future was a better play than trying to keep the 13-win band together.
That philosophy may have set them back in 2023 as there was a difficult adjustment period to start the season and then when Cousins went down with an injury they didn’t have enough talent to prop up a backup QB. But regression in ‘23 is set to pay off big time now.
Per ESPN, the NFL informed teams on Wednesday that the 2025 per-team salary cap will fall in the range of $277.5 million to $281.5 million, way up from last year's $255.4 million.
You could see last offseason that the Vikings anticipated their Shawshank Redemption moment with the salary cap. They were big players on Day 1 of free agency, signing Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel. The only way they could make those deals fit with the $71 million in dead cap that was mostly made up from solving the previous regime’s problems was by structuring them to carry small cap hits in 2024 and increase down the road. Those deals now make up smaller percentages of the cap in 2025 than expected when they were signed.
The Vikings also reset the market with Justin Jefferson’s contract and signed left tackle Christian Darrisaw to a contract extension a year before it was necessary. Both deals look tremendous right now, especially since we can expect Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase to exceed Jefferson’s contract.
If we look at where the Vikings stand going into this offseason, a couple of things are noticeable: 1) They have several of the most expensive and important positions locked up for years to come on reasonable contracts i.e. offensive tackle, wide receiver and edge rusher. 2) They have a lot of work to do otherwise. 3) They have a lot of cap space to work with — an estimated $63 million, per OverTheCap.com.
Wednesday’s news about the cap increase had to be music to the Vikings’ ears knowing that free agency is going to be full of bidding wars for only a handful of exceptional free agents. This year’s crop features only four players at Vikings positions of need who are expected to make at least $15 million per year by Pro Football Focus’s projections. If they want to hunt for big fish, they are going to have a lot of competition, including other cap-happy clubs like the Patriots (projected at $126 million), Raiders ($99 million), Commanders ($82 million), Cardinals ($76 million) and Chargers ($70 million).
That means the hometown players could be where the Vikings advantage in free agency lies. For example, the expectation is that cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. will garner a ton of attention on the market and could land in the range of $16-$20 million per season. Even with the Vikings moving back his void date, that price tag still seemed to be a little rich for their blood. Is that the case now? Overpaying yesterday might not be overpaying today.
Could they get Murphy Jr., safety Cam Bynum and running back Aaron Jones to return while still playing in the big free agent sandbox? It doesn’t seem unreasonable to think they can.
Another question: Does any of this impact their decision surrounding Sam Darnold? Suddenly the franchise tag would make up less than 15% of the 2025 cap and the transition tag would only be around 12%. Would the potential offers for Darnold on the in the transition tag scenario change because of the increase in cap room? Would another team like the Raiders be able to make an offer the Vikings wouldn’t match?
Of course, those things only matter if they have any inkling of keeping Darnold. If they are out of the Darnold business, could his trade market be impacted if certain teams that might not have been able to afford him before in a tag-and-trade are now back in the ballgame?
If the Vikings move on from Darnold and turn to JJ McCarthy, it will be the biggest and final step of the “Competitive Rebuild” plan. Since the invention of the rookie wage scale, teams have long taken full advantage of rookie quarterback contracts. That was presumably a major part of Adofo-Mensah’s plan when he arrived. Even he might not have expected just how big that advantage would end up becoming. The top quarterbacks contract is now set at $60 million per year. In 2025, McCarthy’s cap hit will be under $5 million. There are 30 quarterbacks with larger cap hits than McCarthy next season.
The Vikings also have to fill out the bottom end of their roster through free agency since they will not have a bevy of draft picks. Last year they squeezed in players like Jerry Tillery, Trent Sherfield and Jonathan Bullard and each player was useful — even good — throughout their 14-win season. But the Vikings now should be able to raise the bar in terms of the depth signings they can make. They could even consider spending extra on something like the punter position or sign a slot receiver who brings something different to the table than Jalen Nailor.
As they approach free agency, the Vikings might also consider the trend of the cap increasing as a factor when they make offers. If they were to sign a player like guard Trey Smith, the most coveted free agent on the market, to a massive market-changing contract, will that deal look much better in two years? Probably. There was a report that Netflix wants to get involved in buying a Sunday package of games from the NFL and it’s likely that more playoff games end up for sale to Amazon, so it’s hard to see the salary cap going anywhere other than up, up, up in the coming years. It might be the case that “overpaying” this year is unlikely to look like overpaying by 2027.
In years past, the Vikings were forced to sit on the sidelines and only make modest additions like Michael Pierce or Dalvin Tomlinson while the cap-healthy teams were able to dance in the streets on the first days of free agency. Because they started planning for this offseason several years ago, the Vikings are now in position to keep their own guys, shore up weaknesses and make significant gains in certain areas if they can convince the top names to come to Minnesota. What a difference a couple years makes.
I am wondering for the top guys (and middle guys as well) how much NFLPA rankings and general good vibes matter.... Of course money is the key, but would some players pick the Vikings over a club with a mediocre rep if the salaries were near equal?
The world wonders!
Piggy backing what the Dude said I wonder what actually truly REALLY matters to a free agent. Players often say winning is more important but how many take less money to be on a winning team?