Around the NFL Week: AFC North and NFC South
A closer look around the league, this time at one strong division and one questionable...
Welcome to Around the NFL Week here on Purple Insider.
This week, we pull back and take a look at every team in the NFL, how they got to this point and where they are headed. Plus we will make predictions about how each team’s season will go in 2026. We’ll cover two divisions each day.
Today, we look at the NFC North and NFC South…
AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers
Over-under win total: 7.5
I’ve never even considered a world with Mike Tomlin not coaching the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Think about all of the things that have changed in the NFL during the time that Tomlin was in The Steel City and how unfathomable it is for a coach to never have a losing season the entire time.
When Tomlin took over the Steelers from Bill Cowher, Adrian Peterson hadn’t been drafted yet, Eli Manning had zero Super Bowls, Aaron Rodgers was still sitting behind Brett Favre, defensive rookie of the year was current Texans coach DeMeco Ryans and Joey Porter (whose son is currently a Steeler) was Pittsburgh’s leader in sacks.
Five presidential elections went by without Tomlin falling below .500 for a single season. Last year’s Steelers first-round pick Derrick Harmon was four years old when Tomlin was hired. The top movie was Spider-man 3. There have been nine Spider-man movies since then.
You get the point. This is weird territory.
When Tomlin stepped away, the thought was that the Steelers would try to find the next Tomlin or Cowher. They will get a young, hard-nosed leader who they can build with for many years to come, right?
Nope. They went exactly the opposite direction by hiring Mike McCarthy .
At least they will use McCarthy’s skills with quarterbacks to develop a young QB for the futre, right?
Wrong again. They went with the oldest quarterback in the NFL, Aaron Rodgers.
Here’s something that we haven’t had to ask about the Steelers in a really long time: Are they serious about winning?
Certainly McCarthy has done his share of winning throughout his career. In fact, you might not guess that he has an identical win percentage to Bill Walsh and ranks just ahead of Tom Landry, Mike Holmgren and Bill Parcells.
Because they never got past the divisional round, his time in Dallas was underappreciated. McCarthy went 49-35 despite long stretches without Dak Prescott and when his QB1 was fully healthy the Cowboys ranked 1st, 4th and 1st in points scored.
Bringing in the 62-year-old ball coach might make sense if Pittsburgh had Ben Roethlisberger in his prime — or heck, even Neil O’Donnell or Kordell Stewart in their primes — but that is not the case. Instead they have a 43-year-old QB who ranked 29th out of 45 quarterbacks by PFF last year and ended the season practically crawling off the field in agony against the Houston Texans.
How exactly are the Steelers supposed to be anything other than middling with Rodgers at McCarthy at the helm?
Unfortunately the middle became part of Tomlin’s legacy at the end. He finished somewhere between 9-7-1 and 10-7 every year from 2021 through 2025. How is McCarthy supposed to be better than that with Rodgers under center and a roster that’s good and not great?
Out of the 22 teams to make the Super Bowl since 2015, only the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals entered the playoffs with fewer than 11 wins. Being just OK is rarely enough.
You can squint and find the path. It’s pretty narrow but it’s there.
Another element of Tomlin’s failure to get the Steelers over the top was that they too often had defenses that were just alright and not great. Last year the Steelers finished 17th in points allowed and 18th in opposing passer rating allowed. There were times where it was fair to wonder if Tomlin had updated his coverages and blitzes in a while.
This year they will have Patrick Graham as their defensive coordinator. He quietly had top-16 pass defenses with the Raiders in terms of net yards per pass attempt allowed over the last three years. The Steelers also added quality defensive backs Jaquan Brisker and Jamel Dean and have some ascending young players like Derrick Harmon and Nick Herbig.
If the Steelers can put together an elite defense, then they might have a shot at making things interesting.
As much as Rodgers was a below average quarterback last year, it’s worth noting that his weapons were as mediocre as it gets outside of DK. The second most targeted player by Rodgers was running back Kenneth Gainwell. His next most targeted receiver was Calvin Austin III with 55 targets and 31 catches.
Michael Pittman Jr. has five straight seasons of more than 100 targets with the Indianapolis Colts. He might quickly become Rodgers’ No. 1 target. Last year he was effective in quick game, catching 80 passes for 784 yards and peaked in Indy at 109 catches.
The Steelers also added Rico Dowdle to their backfield and drafted receiver Germie Bernard from Alabama.
So they are a better team from a roster perspective than they were last year. If Rodgers is the same exact quarterback as he was last year and they have better weapons and better offensive and defensive schemes, could they actually be kinda dangerous?
Right now that’s still hard to buy. Rodgers hasn’t been a good quarterback since 2021 and every time he takes a hit it looks like he’s going to break in half. The last time these two worked together, things ended with Rodgers seeming to completely ignore his coach.
It’s just really hard to see it coming together. Not to mention that the division includes Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and the AFC has Josh Allen, the Texans defense and Drake Maye.
If the Steelers don’t make a serious run at a Super Bowl, then what happens? Do they draft a quarterback with the 17th overall pick and have 64-year-old McCarthy slowly develop them while they have a veteran roster? Are they going to try to get Baker Mayfield to come to Pittsburgh?
How do they escape this circle of hell?
Well, if they had started trying to escape it this year by taking a bunch of swings at quarterback to see if something might stick, then maybe some progress could have been made. For now, it doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen.
PREDICTION: Aaron Rodgers’ career with end unceremoniously with a 7-10 season where he starts 12 games
Baltimore Ravens
Over-under win total: 11.5
What happens if that kick goes in?
The owner of the Baltimore Ravens said on record that he would have still fired John Harbaugh if their last-second field goal against the Steelers in Week 18 would have gone through the goal posts but who knows if that is actually true. The Ravens staggered to the finish line in 2025 because Lamar Jackson battled injury for a big portion of the season and their defense wasn’t able to close games (i.e. Week 1 vs. Buffalo when they blew a lead in the fourth quarter and Week 16 vs. New England).
If the kick goes through, there’s no telling what would have happened in the playoffs though. In the game against Pittsburgh, Jackson threw for 238 yards and three touchdowns, looking much closer to himself than he had appeared all year. Derrick Henry was coming alive and maybe they could have made things much more interesting against a Houston team in the Wild Card round that had CJ Stroud playing like David Carr.
We’ll never know what the Ravens’ owner would have done if somehow Baltimore had gone on a run against an AFC that was not as strong as years past.
The Ravens are very similar to the Buffalo Bills in the way that the weight of expectations eventually crushed the wildly successful head coach. Since Jackson became one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, Baltimore’s seasons ended sadly every year.
In 2019, Jackson’s MVP campaign was spoiled by a no-show against the Tennessee Titans. In 2020, Buffalo’s defense shut them out. In 2022, Jackson was hurt and Tyler Huntley fumbled at the goal line to give Cincy the playoff win. In 2023, Jackson produced 10 points. In 2024, Mark Andrews’ drop ended their chances.
Before we ask how exactly Minter can be the difference, we have to wonder a couple of other things about the Ravens: Did they miss all of their best chances with Jackson at QB? Does Jackson have a fatal flaw that will keep him away from a ring forever?
There have been historical QBs who dominated the regular season and then seemed to have a weakness that opponents could exploit in the postseason. But after Sam Darnold proved everyone’s “seeing ghosts” nonsense to be wrong, should we really be talking about some quarterbacks as chokers who can’t get it done?
If you watched Jackson’s playoff games, there were a lot of instances where he seemed uncomfortable, jittery and overwhelmed. It can’t all be blamed on small sample sizes and randomness. At the same time, that happened to Darnold and other QBs in the playoffs — including Peyton Manning — and once they won it was never mentioned again.
The real question about Jackson is probably whether his teams can ever be built as strongly as they were during his rookie contract. In a world where cap space is being bulldozed into the future, his cap hit is still $34 million this year, restricting Baltimore to some extent on their spending. Plus when you have Lamar, you’re never going to draft particularly high unless he gets hurt.
So maybe it was nerves early in his career and roster strength later.
Or coaching?
We think of John Harbaugh as the leader who won the Super Bowl with Joe Flacco and then kept his team at the top after transitioning to Jackson but it’s possible that some of Harbaugh’s player management and schematic choices grew stale. Jackson seemed to struggle to get on the same page with Todd Monken at times last year and the defense slipped to 18th in points allowed.
The intimidation factor that the Ravens usually bring to the table faded as they only had 30 sacks, ranking 30th in the NFL, and they were 28th in QB pressure percentage. Since when do the Ravens not pressure the QB?
That’s where Jesse Minter comes in. His Chargers defense had 45 sacks last season with the sixth lowest blitz percentage in the NFL and allowed just under 180 yards per game passing. They were the No. 1 defense in points allowed in 2024 as well.
The Ravens’ roster might not be as stacked as it once was but there’s still talent. They have an impressive secondary with Kyle Hamilton leading the way along with recent top picks Nate Wiggins and Malaki Starks and veteran Marlon Humphries. The front-seven is getting Hendrickson from free agency along with ageless Calais Campbell and they are getting DT Nnamdi Madubuike back from injury.
A little schematic magic dust sprinkled back on this team could put them right back at the top of the division as long as Jackson is healthy.
It all makes sense on paper that Baltimore would be right in the mix to win a Super Bowl. But there are also realities about roster building in the NFL that may be settling in as well.
PREDICTION: Jesse Minter will be a Coach of the Year finalist in Baltimore for the 13-win Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
Over-under win total: 9.5
What if one of the worst organizations in football suddenly became aware of the errors of their ways and decided to change?
That’s the Cincinnati Bengals.
It only happened because quarterback Joe Burrow seems to have pushed them into the 21st century but nonetheless the Bengals are now acting more like a serious organization.
The Bengals are now doing things that other teams have taken for granted. An example of that is Burrow’s recent contract restructure to allow for some moves in free agency. Previously Cincinnati never restructured any contracts because that would mean writing big checks to players. They were also able to keep Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and make a blockbuster trade for defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence that went along with a new contract.
Not that the Bengals never signed anyone in free agency, they just usually didn’t go big game hunting when it was going to be costly. Yet this offseason they signed Boye Mafe away from the Super Bowl Seahawks and added former Viking Jonathan Allen. The addition of veteran safety Bryan Cook adds to the depth of a defense that was downright pathetic last year.
All of this screams: Don’t go, Joe!
The way Burrow’s contract sets up, it’s basically now or never. In 2027, his cap hit will go up to $54 million and then his guarantees run out in 2028 with a $55 million hit. The contract, like many others with top QBs, was designed to create an extension date. That would be after this year. If Burrow is a happy man in Cincy, then he can lower those mongo cap hits with a long-term extension.
If he’s unhappy though, the Bengals don’t have many options. They have spent so much money on the roster to convince Burrow to stick around that it would be very difficult to make it all work after this year.
The other part is that Burrow would be worth a metric ton in a trade if he still had a year left on his deal, even if his new team was going to extend him anyway. It would give the Bengals the leverage to say, “we do not have to trade him.”
Based on comments made by Burrow during the final stretch of last season, the scenario of him asking out doesn’t seem unrealistic. Not to mention that we live in the age of player movement. Matthew Stafford was traded. Russell Wilson was traded. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning’s careers ended in different spots from where they became legends. That’s life in the NFL today. Anything is possible.
Unless the Bengals are good as heck.
Because of Burrow’s injuries and the lack of team success since they reached the Super Bowl in 2021 and AFC Championship game in 2022, it’s easy to bump Burrow out of the Allen/Mahomes/Jackson conversation for the best quarterback in the NFL. But over 35 starts since 2022, Burrow has 75 touchdowns to 20 interceptions, a 101.9 quarterback rating and averages 258 yards passing per game. That’s the fifth best rating and fourth best yards per game.
Burrow’s mastery over the offense has been overshadowed by astonishing ineptitude on defense. The Bengals have ranked 31st, 25th and 31st in the three seasons since 2022 on defense. Burrow also hasn’t gotten any help from the backfield as Zac Taylor’s squads have finished 31st, 30th and 29th in total rush yards.
How much can these things be changed in 2026?
With a totally revamped defensive line that is highlighted by arguably the most dominant D-tackle in the NFL, the Bengals defense has a chance to show enormous improvement right away. They only had 35 sacks in 2025 and were 23rd in pressure percentage. While Lawrence’s production went down last year with the Giants, he still had the sixth highest Pass Rush Win Rate by PFF and had 9.0 sacks in 2024.
There are big questions at linebacker but the Bengals secondary is improved by adding Cook and has some solid-to-good cornerbacks that will benefit from more pressure on opposing QBs.
The thing about having Burrow as the quarterback is that the Bengals’ defense doesn’t need to be the Legion of Boom, it just needs to be average in order for them to be contenders. The 2021 Bengals were 17th in points allowed during the regular season and put together a couple good gameplans in the playoffs and made the Super Bowl.
Is it actually going to happen or will the Bengals risk losing Burrow forever?
The moves and changes they have made would have you leaning toward him being a Bengal for much longer after 2026. But the stakes in Cincy are much higher than the usual difference between a good and bad season.
PREDICTION: Joe Burrow will be an All-Pro and bring the Bengals back to the playoffs
Cleveland Browns
Over-under win total: 6.5
The Cleveland Browns are like if Michael Scott ran a football team.
In most cases, you can sorta squint and see what they were trying to do but the execution is so awkward and pathetic that you have to laugh.
This year might be the football equal of the Fun Run episode where Michael tries to raise money for victims of rabies and ends up collapsing because he refused to drink water.
How in the name of Kelly Holcomb can DeShaun Watson be seriously considered as a starting quarterback option in the year of Roger Goodell’s NFL 2026? Any sane team would have preferred Air Bud to Watson. Run the Wildcat every game. Bring Derek Anderson out of retirement. Is there nobody in the CFL available?
Set aside Watson’s, uh, “personal issues,” and just focus on his performance as Browns quarterback. As a Brown, he is averaging 4.5 yards per attempt when adjusted for sacks and interceptions.
You know who has better numbers than that (with at least 200 passes thrown)? Josh Dobbs. Zach Wilson. Will Levis. Tyler Huntley. Drew Lock. Desmond Ridder. Anthony Richardson. Cooper Rush. Aidan O’Connell.
He’s only decimals ahead of Bailey Zappe.
And this is someone who is really going to start for the 2026 Browns? I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.
Apparently Watson is in a quarterback competition with Shedeur Sanders. No matter how bad Sanders’ superfans pray to Deion’s dance moves, he’s probably never going to be a good quarterback but at least there’s a smidge of a chance that he could be. Or at least could be as good as Desmond Ridder, which would be an improvement over Watson.
Why would any rational team rather have a 31-year-old who can’t outperform Will Levis over someone with some potential to be a future quarterback?
Why would the team rather have Watson than literally anyone else? The commitment to the bit has gone way, way too far if that’s actually what they are going to do.
It would be interesting to talk about the post-Myles Garrett Browns. The wildest part of the whole scenario is that their roster has a lot to like. Getting Jared Verse back in the trade was a win, especially with Mason Graham entering Year 2 after a solid showing as a top pick in 2025. Carson Schwesinger is a budding star at linebacker too.
They drafted two really good receiver prospects in KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. They also have an interesting young tackle Spencer Fano, a RB with high potential in Quinshon Judkins and a second-year tight end who flashed as a rookie in Harold Fannin.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that if this team had Mac Jones and anything more than a fella doing funny press conferences while he waits to get fired as a head coach, the Browns could actually be good.
But until they rid themselves of the Watson’s stank, they cannot be given any benefit of the doubt.
The Manning family famously decided that Eli wouldn’t play for the San Diego Chargers. Well, Arch could do the same if the Browns land the No. 1 pick. Nobody should intentionally cast an evil spell on themselves by going to Cleveland. Stay in school, kids!
PREDICTION: The Cleveland Browns will earn the No. 1 overall pick and Arch Manning will ask to be traded to another team or elect to stay in school
NFC South
Carolina Panthers
Over-under win total: 7.5
You ever think about how weird it is that the Panthers got to celebrate making the playoffs and the Minnesota Vikings had to eat it all offseason long for not making the playoffs and the Vikings had a better record than the Panthers?
The fact that so many people want to protect winning the division as an automatic entry to the playoffs is tilting. Why would we want worse team in the postseason? Also nobody cares about winning the division. The Vikings won the division in 2022 and lost in sorry fashion to a mediocre New York Giants team. Did Vikings fans throw a parade?
Anyway, there’s a point in here. The Panthers deserve to be viewed as a rising team because GM Dan Morgan and head coach Dave Canales have pulled the franchise out of the gutter and made it respectable. They beat the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau last year. They beat the Los Angeles Rams last year and they were a drive away from beating the Rams again in the playoffs.
Could you have imagined that three years ago when Frank Reich was coaching a team that made the 1995 expansion Panthers look like an All-Star team?
They have built something from scratch that can compete on a weekly basis. The Panthers have drafted a star wide receiver in Tetairoa McMillan, put together a good offensive line, found some sleeper offensive weapons and built a strong enough defense to rank 15th overall last season.
And Bryce Young, who was left for dead several times by the Panthers, went 8-8 and continued to show progress.
Respectable. Very respectable.
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