Around the NFL: AFC West and NFC North
Continuing our series diving into every NFL team
By Matthew Coller
Welcome to Around the NFL Week here on Purple Insider.
This week, we pull back and take a look at every team in the NFL, how they got to this point and where they are headed. Plus we will make predictions about how each team’s season will go in 2026. We’ll cover two divisions each day.
Today we look at the AFC West and the rest of the NFC North. On Monday, I’ll have 20 Vikings predictions for the 2026 season…
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Over-under win total: 9.5
If the Broncos never get back to the Super Bowl, at least they will have a “what coulda been” for the ages.
In the midst of beating the Buffalo Bills in overtime to earn a home AFC Championship game against the New England Patriots, quarterback Bo Nix severely injured his ankle, keeping him out of the AFCC game and leaving things in the hands of Jarret Stidham.
Early in the AFC title game, the Broncos were giving it to the Patriots. Their defense was dominating New England’s O-line and Drake Maye was struggling under the pressure. Stidham was doing alright. With the Broncos up 7-0, the backup QB moved them to the New England 14-yard line. Rather than kick a field goal to go up 10-0, Sean Payton went for it on fourth down and the Broncos did not convert.
Denver fans will always wonder if that would have been enough to win the game. The Patriots only got 86 yards passing out of Maye and won the game 10-7.
The Broncos would have been a more formidable opponent for the Seahawks in the Super Bowl because they had one of the best QBs in the NFL at avoiding sacks and they had a defense that led the NFL in sacks by 11 over the next best team and a top-10 run defense by EPA allowed.
They might have been able to keep the offense on the field, unlike Maye, who sputtered under pressure. They might have been able to sack Darnold and change the game that way.
Unfortunately for the Broncos, the Nix injury and the Payton blunder left them at home thinking: That shoulda been us.
How do you come back from that?
On one hand, there should be a lot of confidence in Nix following the AFC Championship game. He has been at the center of debates about whether he’s really a franchise QB or if he’s just a mediocre player on a really good team. After beating Josh Allen toe-to-toe and leading the game-winning drive, who can say that Nix can’t get the job done?
He is an interesting case though because he’s kept the train on the tracks and actually had a lot more Big-Time Throws than you’d think for someone painted as just a game manager (13th in BTT% last year) and he was 8th in total passing yards last year so it isn’t like he was a low volume QB whose running game did all the work.
The Nix perception as a mediocre QB seems to be about how the offense is designed for him. He has thrown 63% of his passes under 10 yards and only went 50-for-100 on intermediate throws between 10-20 yards. That screams, “don’t mess it up.”
With a defense like Denver’s, not messing it up is a good plan. He only threw INTs on 1.8% of passes and got sacked on 3.5%. Out of 100 throws, Nix is only making a big mistake on five of them. That’s one every three games, basically. It’s hard to lose when you have an elite defense and are moving the ball positively through the air and gaining an extra 356 yards on the ground at the QB position.
The question facing Denver is whether Payton will now be asking for more out of his quarterback with Jaylen Waddle acquired in the offseason. The Broncos have a great offensive line and they are unimpressive on the ground.
Is this the breakout year for Nix where he elevates himself more into like a mobile Jared Goff or is he going to struggle when called upon to push the ball into some tighter windows to find Waddle?
They will probably need that. Unless the Broncos can do something that’s unusual in the NFL: Repeat elite defensive performances. Normally when a team gets 68 sacks in a season, there’s no chance that they do that again. The same thing goes for forcing turnovers. But the Broncos had 63 sacks in 2024. They also didn’t rely on takeaways last year, ranking 29th in turnover percentage. That number should improve from 2025.
The pieces are all there. If things go right for Nix with his new weapon and repaired ankle, there’s no reason that Denver shouldn’t be right back in the mix to avenge last season’s unfortunate ending.
But we should always keep Dan Campbell’s words from the 2023 NFC Championship game in mind. That might have been their best shot.
PREDICTION: The Broncos will be an 10-win team but Bo Nix will improve on his 17th place ranking by PFF and 29th place in passer rating
Los Angeles Chargers
Over-under win total: 9.5
The Los Injured Chargers had a familiar refrain last year. They got super banged up on the offensive line and Justin Herbert pushed them into the playoffs but couldn’t take them any farther than the first round.
Nobody expects anyone to make the Super Bowl without a good O-line. These days with the number of freakshow D-linemen, it’s almost impossible to get there if you are outmanned in multiple postseason games and even if that does happen, usually the Super Bowl goes terribly just like it did the last two years for Kansas City and New England.
But should I be considered a bad person for wanting more out of Herbert?
It seems like he is invincible to public scrutiny. He’s the only QB in the NFL whose shortcomings in the postseason are met with shrugs. Sam Darnold lost a single playoff game and people acted like he should have moved to Canada and played against Mcleod Bethel-Thompson in the CFL.
Herbert has been there three times. He’s 0-for-3. The first one was an epic meltdown against the Jaguars. The second one had four interceptions. The most recent one was a complete no-show where he gained 159 yards on 31 passes against a Patriots defense that was pretty good but hardly the 1985 Bears.
Should I be shunned by the NFL All-22 Illuminati for feeling like Herbert is closer to Kirk Cousins than he is Patrick Mahomes?
That doesn’t mean he isn’t good — he’s very good. He’s a clear franchise QB. But I’m always left wanting more. Like, why is a guy with his arm talent 24th in Big-Time Throw percentage? Why does it seem like the Chargers have won a lot more when they’ve had him pass a lot less? Why am I always hearing the many explanations for why he has never become what he was supposed to be and not just… seeing it?
The truth may be somewhere in the middle. From a production perspective, Herbert has just been good and not in the ballpark of greatness. Between 2022 and 2025, he only ranks 17th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, right around CJ Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Baker Mayfield.
The reality with those types of quarterbacks is that they can be moved one way or the other by supporting casts and coaching more than the stable legendary types.
This year will be proof of concept with Herbert because the Chargers hired Mike McDaniel as their offensive coordinator. With the Dolphins, sputtering Tua Tagovailoa turned into the NFL’s leader in passing. There has also been a ton of investment in Herbert’s weapons with recent draft picks of Tre Harris and Brenan Thompson. If Omarion Hampton is 100%, he showed last year that he can be a driving force to the offense and McDaniel’s specialty is marrying the run and pass game.
If Herbert can’t elevate the Chargers’ offense, which has only ranked top-10 once since Herbert arrived, then nobody can.
The L.A. quarterback will also be well supported by one of the best defenses in the NFL over the last two years. They ranked No. 1 in 2024 in points allowed and 9th in 2025. Adding Dalvin Tomlinson to the mix, getting Khalil Mack back and adding an NFL-ready pass rusher Akheem Mesidor gives them an incredibly deep pass rush that will be tough to reckon with for the rest of the AFC.
Certainly things can always go wrong and the AFC West is a heck of a division but it’s hard to imagine that the Chargers will ever have a better chance at getting over the hump than in 2026.
PREDICTION: Justin Herbert will throw for 4,300 yards and 35 touchdowns under Mike McDaniel’s new offense and the Chargers will win the AFC West. Omarion Hampton will rank in the top five in total rushing yards
Kansas City Chiefs
Over-under win total: 10.5
Patrick Mahomes is human, huh?
It certainly didn’t look that way when he dragged a mediocre Chiefs team to the Super Bowl in 2024. Even with a loss in The Big Game, it was still mind blowing that KC could have such a drop in roster quality since his first Super Bowl and still make it past the best teams in the stacked AFC.
The craziest part was how hard the close-game regression hit KC. In 2024, they got away with tight win after tight win with late-game heroics from the decade’s best quarterback but in 2025, nine of their 11 losses were by one score and seven of those were by less than seven points.
The Chiefs’ Expected W-L record was 9.5-7.5. So they should have been a borderline 10-win team and instead they drafted in the top 10. Who saw that coming?
Just based on that number alone, you would expect the Chiefs to be back in the mix. Andy Reid rarely falls short of expectations and Mahomes should be good enough to make up for some shortcomings that weren’t really addressed in the offseason.
But there’s been a trend with Mahomes over the last three years that can’t be ignored. In 2022, he averaged 8.1 yards per attempt, threw 41 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and had a 105.2 quarterback rating. Since then, he hasn’t averaged more than 7.1 YPA, thrown more than 27 TDs or had a rating higher than 93.5.
Sure, I’d still take Mahomes as my flag football team’s quarterback but… what’s happening here?
There’s a lot of theories to present. One is that his weapons have been extremely underwhelming. Once Travis Kelce stopped being an unstoppable force, the other players who were asked to take up the slack have not consistently shined. Rashee Rice can’t stay out of trouble, Xavier Worthy has speed and limitations, there hasn’t been a true deep threat.
The other part might be the shift in the meta on defense around the NFL. When one player dominates that the level of Mahomes, the entire league spends every waking hour trying to figure out how to stop that from happening. Suddenly defenses are playing zone coverage way, way more than they did a few years ago. In 2022, there were 13 teams playing zone more than 70% of the time but in 2025 there were 21 teams playing it 70%+ (per TruMedia).
Have defenses figured out that “shell” coverages are Mahomes’ kryptonite? Last year his average depth of target went back up but it had sunk from 8.9 in 2020 to 6.8 in 2023.
Is it also possible that Andy Reid hasn’t adjusted enough?
It might just be a combination of everything. The scheme stuff, the roster stuff. We should keep in mind also that the AFC West has two unbelievable defenses in it now and the AFC as a whole is a monster. There’s no cruise control on AFC schedules.
These types of lulls (which would be good seasons for anyone else) are not unusual for all-time great quarterbacks. Tom Brady had a three-year run post-Moss from 2012-2014 that was just good and not unbelievable. Dan Marino from 1987 to 1989 went 21-23 and led the league in INTs in ‘89. For the legends, greatness is usually right around the corner.
Is that the case for Mahomes this year? I’m not sure if they have enough self awareness for that to happen. The Chiefs didn’t get Mahomes any new receivers and they brought back an old friend in Eric Bieniemy rather than looking for new ideas.
They also lost a lot in the secondary in Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson and then brought back L’Jarius Snead to fill the hole along with drafting Mansoor Delane.
Is that going to be enough? Do they realize that the Broncos and Chargers are much better than them on paper? Is Mahomes’ contract so restrictive that there’s really nothing they can do about it?
Naturally the Chiefs are still considered a Super Bowl favorite. They have the fourth best odds on FanDuel at +800.
Should they really be given the benefit of the doubt?
Probably, yeah.
We shouldn’t lose sight of how recently it was that the Chiefs still found themselves representing the AFC in the Super Bowl. Mahomes coming back from the ACL injury to put together another terrific Chiefs offense on the back of his arm and playmaking totally sounds like something that an NFL legend would do.
You also wonder what type of impact it might have if Mahomes is forced to play a little more in structure when he returns. And the Chiefs spent big on Ken Walker in the backfield, which is something they haven’t had for a very long time. Maybe if everything isn’t on Mahomes’ shoulders, he will be more efficient than in the recent past.
PREDICTION: Patrick Mahomes will return to ranking as a top-five quarterback by PFF and in QB rating but the Chiefs will have defensive problems and the Chiefs will finish second behind the Chargers in the West
Las Vegas Raiders
Over-under win total: 5.5
This offseason, I’ve been side-eyeing the Raiders.
There’s no reason yet to look directly at them because the AFC West has three Super Bowl-contending teams that are full of superstars and have accomplished coaches. The Raiders would need all three of those teams to become stranded at sea in order to win the division.
But the Raiders have been doing stuff this offseason that makes them look like a competent franchise.
That’s quite unusual for a Las Vegas squad that hasn’t won a playoff game since Miguel Tejada was the star of the Oakland A’s.
Over the last 20+ years, the Raiders have tried all sorts of different approaches and haven’t been able to get out of their own way. They tried drafting JaMarcus Russell. They tried trading for Carson Palmer. They tried trading for Randy Moss. They tried bringing back Jon Gruden. They tried hiring Josh McDaniels. They tried trading for Davante Adams. They tried having Tom Brady buy part of the team. They tried hiring Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly.
Nada.
This offseason they tried drafting a high-character winning quarterback, putting him behind a veteran to take a patient approach and hiring a head coach whose QB-friendly offense helped push Sam Darnold to the Super Bowl.
The Raiders did spend a lot of money in free agency this year but they made bets on players who might be ascending and could be a long-term part of their franchise. Players like Jalen Nailor, who was behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison in Minnesota, and Kwity Paye, who could be poised for a breakout. They got Nakobe Dean from Philly. He’s 25. They got Quay Walker from Green Bay. He’s 26. They signed Tyler Linderbaum to a long-term deal so he’s in charge of Mendoza and Ashton Jeanty for years to come.
And they signed Kirk Cousins to make sure that Mendoza has someone there for him to learn the ropes of the NFL.
Mendoza is a big dude with a big brain but that doesn’t mean he’s going to master the ways of the NFL right away. We have heard many, many NFL quarterbacks preach over the years that developing rookie quarterbacks as backups is the way to go. That doesn’t mean we won’t see Mendoza at all this year but it does mean that Kubiak isn’t going to throw him to the wolves before he’s ready to roll.
Nobody really knows if it’s going to work because draft picks are unpredictable. At least we can say that the process from the Raiders seems to be a lot less this time around about making big splashes and headlines and more about taking a methodical approach with a very smart offensive mind at the helm.
Will that last? That’s really the question. This team has hired and fired coaches like most teams change socks. Can they be patient if they only win five games in 2026? They can keep the belief that Kubiak can be the right person to get Mendoza locked into an NFL offense and give the front office time to add to its weapons, which are underwhelming outside Brock Bowers currently?
If they can hang on, maybe the Raiders will be able to build something that peaks around the same time that either the Broncos or Chargers is going down the other side of the mountain and they can become a serious contender.
This was always the way they should have been operating. Better late than never, I guess.
PREDICTION: Kirk Cousins will be benched Week 8 in favor of Fernando Mendoza, who will win five games the rest of the season and throw 12 touchdowns and five INTs. Ashton Jeanty will clear 1,200 yards behind Klint Kubiak’s run scheme
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Over-under win total: 9.5
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