Around the NFL: AFC South and NFC East
Continuing our look at every team in the NFL, division by division
By Matthew Coller
Welcome to Around the NFL Week here on Purple Insider.
This week, we pull back and take a look at every team in the NFL, how they got to this point and where they are headed. Plus we will make predictions about how each team’s season will go in 2026. We’ll cover two divisions each day.
Today we look at the AFC South and NFC East…
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over-under win total: 9.5
You know what analysis is really frustrating? When somebody says, “if only Player X could be more consistent!” It’s just Captain Obvious land. If any middling PGA golfer was more consistent, they would win a bunch of tournaments. The consistency of Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is a massive part of their success.
That said, can you imagine if Trevor Lawrence was more consistent?
Over the first 11 games of last season, Lawrence was completing under 60% of his passes, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt and had a 79.4 quarterback rating. In the final six games of 2025, he threw 15 touchdowns to one interception, averaged 8.3 YPA and had a 113.2 rating.
This isn’t an anomaly, it’s Lawrence every year. In 2023, he started out 8-3 with a 92.0 rating and finished the season 1-5 with a 83.2 rating.
The final results for Lawrence are always somewhere between meh and good. Last year he finished as the 8th best QB in the NFL by PFF and his previous years were 18th, 15th and 13th. He’s settled into being the NFL’s definitive average starting quarterback.
Of course, nobody sees it that way because he has cool hair and was touted as a generational talent by draft analysts. (As if they don’t dub someone generational every year).
Lawrence’s career on paper looks a lot like Carson Wentz or Jake Plummer but he’s treated like he’s a few touch passes away from being Matthew Stafford.
There has always been a lot of plausible deniability for Lawrence due to the Jaguars being the Jaguars. This is the franchise that thought hiring Urban Meyer, who had never heard of most NFL players that didn’t go to Ohio State, was a good idea. Lawrence’s weapons were majorly questionable during Doug Pederson’s time there and then he won 13 games with Liam Coen in charge, so this must be the real Trevor.
Plus when a quarterback ends a season on a hot streak, we tend to believe that they will never, ever let us down again. We think in TV graphics sometimes. “Over the last five games, he was Joe Montana!”
Unfortunately for Lawrence, that has never meant that he’ll be Joe Montana for an entire season.
But the current Jaguars regime offers hope to Lawrence’s inconsistency problem. Coen and Grant Udinski are teaching Pedro Serrano how to hit a curveball with their offensive scheme and play calling.
One of the issues that Lawrence has had in the NFL is playing ultra conservatively. He has a monster bazooka attached to his body and yet he played like he had Chase Daniel’s arm.
After Week 11, Lawrence had the 6th highest average depth of target in the NFL. Before that he was 17th. He was as low as 28th in 2022. Using his downfield passing ability to its max will be key for Lawrence producing at a high level over a full season rather than in spurts.
Some of the downfield passing success may have been the emergence of weapons he trusts. During that time, receiver Parker Washington caught 28 passes and averaged 17.8 yards per reception and Jakobi Meyers had 42 receptions for 483 yards after being acquired by the Jags in Week 10.
Lawrence’s weapons have been underwhelming since he entered the league. After a wild Brian Thomas rookie season in 2024, they thought they finally found their true WR1 but he struggled mightily last year. Before that it was guys like Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley and checkdowns to Evan Engram. Not exactly Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell.
The attempt to make Travis Hunter into 1996 Deion Sanders also failed. Not that Hunter can’t play receiver at all but expecting him to impact both sides of the ball in 2026 was pie in the sky. There is a reason that nobody has done this since 1996.
With Washington and Meyers in Lawrence’s trust tree and the possibility of Thomas bouncing back, there is a chance we could finally see a more consistent star quarterback.
By the way, the Jags are coming off a 13-win season where they melted in key moments against the Bills in the playoffs. Does anyone remember that?
If the Dallas Cowboys went 13-4 and then lost a playoff game like that, Stephen A. Smith’s head would have turned into a volcano of vitriolic ash.
If a playoff loss happens in Jacksonville and nobody ever talked about it, did it happen?
The thing about 13-win seasons, though, is that they are hard to repeat. Were there signs of regression?
Some. The Jags were No. 2 in turnovers forced behind the Chicago Bears. That’s going to be hard to do again, even with a good defense. But Jacksonville’s Expected W-L based on point differential was 12-5 and they had a very difficult schedule playing the NFC West and AFC West. Of their four losses, three were to playoff teams that at least made the Divisional Round (Seattle, LAR and Houston).
They did not lose a ton of talent off the roster or have any coaches leave. While Travis Etienne is a good player, he’s not Derrick Henry. Linebacker Devin Lloyd may be tough to replace since he was one of the top players at his position last year but the Jags’ front-seven and secondary are very good.
The division is much harder than it was two years ago with the Colts being reasonably competitive with Daniel Jones, the Texans being a behemoth on defense and Tennessee possibly taking a step forward.
Still, it’s all pretty much there for the Jaguars to be a seriously competitive team again.
If Lawrence is consistent. If not, then the ups and downs are likely to send them for more of a roller coaster ride than it was last year, as is the nature of the NFL.
PREDICTION: Travis Hunter will be a full-time cornerback by mid season and Trevor Lawrence’s regression year will put him in question as Jacksonville’s 2027 quarterback
Houston Texans
Over-under win total: 9.5
If CJ Stroud was even halfway decent in the playoffs, the Texans probably would have reached the Super Bowl and would have had a legitimate chance to win. They were probably the only AFC team that was strong enough on defense to be able to play with Seattle for 60 minutes.
Instead Stroud completed 52% of his passes in two playoff games and threw five interceptions.
Had the former No. 2 overall pick QB played like a top-notch QB in the regular season and fallen apart in the playoffs, you could have made a very easy argument that the Texans should be a Super Bowl favorite for the AFC this year. But the last two years have been very underwhelming. He was PFF’s 14th best QB in 2024 and 21st in 2025. He only threw for just over 3,000 yards in 14 starts last year and at times Davis Mills looked like he was managing the offense smoother.
You might think that the offensive line is to blame and you wouldn’t be a crazy person for having that thought but Stroud only ranked 28th in clean pocket quarterback rating. He was under pressure a lot (10th most in the league), so that may have impacted how he played with a clean pocket. Still, for a player who came into the league looking like a top-10 QB, that’s not supposed to happen.
What’s the explanation? Offensive coordinator? Well, they fired one already during his time. Running game? Possibly, they were 29th in yards per rush. Weapons? Maybe. He hasn’t been the same since Tank Dell got hurt. Pressure from the universe to be an elite QB after the first impression was so strong? Could be.
It might be a little bit of everything.
If Stroud can shake that all off, the Texans have everything it takes to be a Super Bowl contender.
Last year the Texans ranked No. 2 in points allowed and No. 1 in yards allowed. They had the best pass rush combo in the league with Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson and a nastiness to the entire group that comes directly from the head coach DeMeco Ryans.
Under Ryans, the Texans have something that every franchise dreams about: An identity. When you play the Texans, you are leaving the stadium with two black eyes.
It’s not just the sack artists or the players who are physical to the point of being dangerous like linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and safety Kamari Lassiter, they also have very skilled defenders as well. Derek Stingley has become one of the elite shutdown corners in the league and Jalen Pitre is as versatile as any DB out there.
There is no reason outside of a crazy rash of injuries that the Texans can’t remain in the top five in the league defensively again — and do it in style.
But the 2000s Ravens don’t exist anymore. Even with the NFL going back to a run-and-play defense style recently, it’s still a passing league. When the dust settled last year, the two MVP candidates were in the final four and Sam Darnold was a top-10 quarterback and Bo Nix had plenty of big moments before getting hurt.
So how far off are the Texans offensively?
On paper, the answer is not that far. They were 12th in passing EPA last year and 14th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt. Houston could see a breakout from second-year receivers Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel.
The problem might really be their run game. The Texans acquired David Montgomery in the offseason but it’s hard to argue that he’s good enough to carry a team. Woody Marks only averaged 3.6 YPA in 2025.
In order to be a grindy defensive team, there has to be help on the other side. The Texans currently don’t have the talent in the backfield to wind the clock and wear opposing defenses down. They are putting Stroud in a lot of tough third-down spots.
The best solution might be a trade for a running back when they get the opportunity. Otherwise, everything will be on the shoulders of a QB who has proven to need help.
PREDICTION: The Texans will win 12 games and CJ Stroud will have a bounce-back season where he finishes in the top 12 quarterbacks by PFF and the Texans enter the postseason as Super Bowl favorites but fall short in the divisional round of the playoffs
Indianapolis Colts
Over-under win total: 7.5
The Indianapolis Colts are absolutely a team in the NFL. Yes sir, they are one of 32 franchises. They have a stadium, uniforms, fans and all that jazz. Ya know, it’s good to be a football team.
What else is anybody supposed to say about the Colts other than that?
Over the last five seasons, they have gone 9-8, 4-12-1, 9-8, 8-9, 8-9.
The most relevant things that they have done during that span are 1) blowing a 33-point lead to the Vikings after making the most batbleep crazy coaching hire of this century 2) drafting a huge bust at QB in Anthony Richardson 3) having Philip Rivers come out of retirement as a grandfather and losing every game.
Not exactly a stellar run since Rivers left the first time.
Why would anyone think this team will matter in 2026?
Last year Daniel Jones had a pretty decent run that was complete smoke and mirrors. His best three performances came against either Tennessee or Miami and he also played very well against the Raiders and Cardinals. Out of 13 games, he went 2-4 versus playoff teams. PFF graded Jones as the 23rd best QB in the NFL despite his 100.2 QB rating, largely due to him ranking 32nd of 45 in Turnover-Worthy Play percentage.
It isn’t just regression that’s working against Jones in 2025, it’s also the fact that he’s coming off an Achilles injury and the Colts shipped out his No. 1 receiver Michael Pittman Jr. to Pittsburgh.
The Colts defense is the Daniel Jones of defenses. They are fine but don’t hold up against anybody good.
They finished 21st in points allowed, 17th in sacks, second in passing yards allowed, 18th in rushing EPA allowed. Lots of middle.
Indy did make the most field goals in the NFL, so that’s good.
The Colts are a partly sunny day. They are vanilla ice cream with a light amount of sprinkles. They are a movie on Rotten Tomatoes that gets s 67% approval.
I’m realizing as I’m writing this that I need jokes just to stay engaged with the Indianapolis Colts.
So how can they make it interesting?
For starters, they ranked as a top five offensive line in both run and pass blocking by PFF last year. That gives Jones a chance to repeat some of his success and Jonathan Taylor to stave off signs of aging for another year.
Because of the quarterback hijinks that’s been going on in Indy over the last few years, Josh Downs has been overlooked as a really good receiver. He has averaged 72 receptions per 17 games and 774 yards. Consistent QB play with Pittman Jr. not eating up targets should allow him to flourish.
Tyler Warren was en route to an incredible rookie season went Jones went down and he still finished with 817 yards.
Overall, the Colts have a very good offensive setup.
It’s hard to believe that there’s another gear to Jones but even playing reasonably well will have Indy in a lot of games.
They also have the star power on defense with Sauce Gardner now as their No. 1 corner, DeForest Buckner still having a lot in the tank and Laiatu Latu ascending.
On a week-to-week basis, the Colts are going to compete. If they are on TV and you’re watching, you’re not going to hate your life. And if Jones can play the entire season, then they have a chance to make the playoffs.
But what’s their cheat code? What’s the thing that makes them stand out? It’s really hard to find.
PREDICTION: The Indianapolis Colts will continue their streak as the most middling franchise in the NFL by going 8-9 and they will make a coaching change at the end of the year
Tennessee Titans
Over-under win total: 6.5
Hey, the Tennessee Titans spent a bunch of money in free agency again. It’s gotta work one of these times.
The Titans were so irrelevant last year that nobody even noticed Cam Ward was the worst quarterback in the NFL. Isn’t that crazy? A No. 1 overall draft pick who was never discussed during the actual draft where he was taken and then never scrutinized in the slightest nationally for posting a meager 80.2 QB rating, getting sacked 55 times and ranking 40th of 45 QBs by PFF grade.
Lots of top pick QBs have been bad early in their career because they were saddled with franchises awful enough to draft them but Ward’s performance was similar to Bryce Young’s as a rookie. Yes, the circumstances are atrocious but shouldn’t we at least see something if the guy is going to be a difference maker?
On a team that was constantly playing from behind, Ward only threw for 250+ yards four times and averaged 5.9 yards per attempt. Yeeeesh.
Where Tennessee is in a good position with Ward is that they should be able to find out pretty quickly this year if there’s anything there. They drafted Carnell Tate and signed Wan’Dale Robinson with the purpose of giving him folks to target. Last year his leading wide receiver was Elic Ayomanor, a fourth-rounder from Stanford.
Ward is also 24 years old. This isn’t a super raw, inexperienced prospect. It’s a guy who should have a pretty good sense of how to play football by now and will have some opportunity to show it.
That doesn’t mean the Titans will be good. Their offensive line has a couple of backups as starters and their defense might have a chance to be reasonably decent but it’s unlikely to be dominant, even with Robert Salah at the helm.
But 2026 for the Titans has little to do with getting into the playoff conversation. It has everything to do with figuring out if they have their quarterback.
If Ward becomes The Guy in Tennessee by the end of this year, then they are going to look like the next rising team in the AFC. With a bunch of top picks from this tanky era of football, they would just need to shore up the weaknesses on the roster like the interior O-line, linebackers and parts of the secondary.
That’s doable. Finding The Guy is much harder. Once you have that on the rookie contract, things can fall into place.
The hard part about buy Ward isn’t just that his numbers was bad but also his play style doesn’t look like anyone else. The arm angles are all over the place, the decisions are erratic and the big-time throws are jaw dropping. It’s reminiscent of Geno Smith early in his career. That’s not exactly the comp you want from a No. 1 overall pick.
There are some underlying numbers in his favor. PFF graded his deep passing better than his box score numbers suggest, which would seem to indicate that better pass catchers could make all the difference. His execution on short stuff was solid with a 101.4 QB rating on throws 0-10 yards.
Maybe the upside is a version of Jordan Love that gets sacked a lot. We won’t completely know that this year because the team isn’t far along enough yet but we’ll have a sense for it.
If Ward fails and the Titans have to draft another QB, it would be a major blow to the momentum that they have from drafting high. It would be great if they could start stockpiling defensive draft picks or get the best guard in the class. If everything has to be poured into QB, they’ll just be playing from behind.
Salah is a little bit interesting in all this. It didn’t work out for him with the Jets but they did have some good defenses and we all blamed the Jets owners and Aaron Rodgers. Well, the ownership situation isn’t better here but it’s much more of a ball of clay for him to mold.
Maybe it’s the start of them getting back to respectability. Maybe it’s another ugly season for Tennessee. We’ll see.
PREDICTION: Tennessee will not take a step forward with Cam Ward and will be in the market for drafting or signing a quarterback again. Ward will finish 2026 with a 4-9 record and 85.9 quarterback rating
Philadelphia Eagles
Over-under win total: 10.5
Am I allowed to think that this is the weakest Philly’s roster has looked in a while and also think they are going to win a lot of football games?
When you go through the parts of the squad that have corroded a bit, you’ll see the O-line isn’t the same without Jason Kelce and the receiver room is unlikely to match AJ Brown’s production with a rookie and the depth on the D-line isn’t incredible as it once was and there’s a few holes in the secondary.
But then you look around the NFC and ask: Who doesn’t have these problems?
The stars on the Philly roster — Devonta Smith, Saquon Barkley, Jalen Carter, Jordan Davis, Jonathan Greenard, Quinyon Mitchell — should be enough of a driving force to make them a Super Bowl contender.
That’s if Jalen Hurts gets it together.
Whatever the hell was going on with the Eagles offense last year was nowhere near what they need to get back to Super Bowl contention.
They went from the seventh best scoring offense in the NFL in 2024 to 19th in 2025. They were 24th in first downs, 26th in percentage of drives to produce points and 23rd in rush yards per attempt.
Whether they return to the top of the league has a lot to do with if Jalen Hurts can bounce back.
He’s had a bizarre career because Hurts has been at the helm for 48 wins and 15 losses since 2022 and has a trip to the Super Bowl where he played great and then a Super Bowl victory where he was the MVP and still folks will rank him as the 19th best quarterback in football when the QB rankers come out in July.
Is there anyone like him in NFL history? It isn’t even like his stats are bad. He has a 97.5 QB rating from 2022-2025 (11th best min. 500 passes) and has the third most rushing yards only behind Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields.
Weird comparison here but I think he’s the modern Troy Aikman.
During Aikman’s run with the Cowboys, he rarely ever led the league in anything. Literally zero seasons leading the NFL in touchdowns or yards and only had two seasons with a 90.0+ quarterback rating. Yes, it was a different era, but Aikman’s stats were nowhere near Steve Young’s numbers but his team was preposterously good and he was incredibly clutch during playoff runs.
In a media world where we have to rank everything and fantasy stats dominate and we view quarterbacks as their own narrative island rather than members of a complete team, it’s almost difficult to compute a player like Hurts.
If he was the quarterback of the Jaguars, he wouldn’t be as good. He isn’t the driver of success for his offense in the same way that Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen are for their teams.
He has clear weaknesses and has been a product of whether the Eagles hire a competent offensive coordinator or not on a given year.
We treat QBs like this as if they are just mediocre when really we should talk about them as excellent players that need certain boxes checked to win. When Hurts has had those boxes checked, he’s won. What else is he supposed to do? His bad season still got them 11 wins and the 13th best net yards per pass attempt.
But the box that wasn’t checked last year was offensive coordinator and general vibes. With AJ Brown making no bones about the fact that he wanted to leave Philly, it was an uncomfortable situation on offense, especially as the players seemed to slowly realize throughout the season that they were bringing a schematic pool toy to a gun fight on a weekly basis.
Now they are trying something else. Brown is gone and a newbie is calling the shots.
Sean Mannion, who Vikings fans know and love, is taking over as the play caller. This unassuming fella played under KOC, Klint Kubiak, Kevin O’Connell and then coached under Matt LaFleur.
You won’t find too many folks roaming the earth who have an understanding of these styles of offense that are meant to enhance the quarterback.
He’s here to break Hurts’ habits. Get him to target the middle of the field. Hit crossing routes rather than go balls down the sideline. Get him back to 700+ yards rushing rather than 400.
A box that clearly has to be checked with Hurts at QB is the run game. Last year Saquon Barkley took a huge step back from 5.8 yards per carry to 4.1 YPC and went for just over 1,100 yards rather than cracking 2,000.
The O-line’s regression brought that down to some extent but the scheme must have mattered there as well. Mannion coming from the Kubiak school of running the football should help.
How the targets get distributed matters as well. With Brown, it felt like they had to get him the ball and would force things because of it. Now with Makai Lemon, Dontayvion Wicks and Eli Stowers in the mix, there may be more opportunity to just throw the ball where it’s supposed to go.
If you’re betting on Philly to hit the over and win the division though, you are doing it because their defense should be nasty. Last season they finished 5th in points allowed and they added Greenard to the mix for some edge pressure. We can’t overlook the addition of Riq Woolen to the cornerback room as well. They were a little one sided there last year with Mitchell.
We keep waiting and waiting for the downfall of the Eagles. But every time it looks like it might be happening, they land great weapons in the draft, make a trade for a star and somehow recover after a bad offensive coordinator hire. It looks like history might repeat itself.
PREDICTION: Sean Mannion will be named the AP Assistant Coach of the Year and the Eagles will win 12 games and take the NFC East. Philly’s offense will rank in the top five in scoring
Dallas Cowboys
Over-under win total: 9.5
One of the most annoying things in football is people acting like they are annoyed by all the coverage of the Dallas Cowboys.
Here’s why you love it: Because it’s been 30 years since they met expectations, so all of the coverage is based on how short they have come of expectations. You can’t tell me that it isn’t hilarious that the NFL shoves the Cowboys in our faces 50 times a year on national TV and they are talked about endlessly and yet they always disappoint in the end. Irony is a gift, friends.
Put your Cowboy hatin’ aside though and ask yourself: Are the Cowboys gonna be good this year?
They actually might be.
Last season Brian Schottenheimer’s hire was treated like the Cowboys re-hired Chan Gailey or something. But he proved that he was able to orchestrate a really good offense. The Cowboys finished with the 7th most points in the league and the third best EPA through the passing game.
Not bad for a guy who was once criticized endlessly for not having “Russ cook” in Seattle.
Dak Prescott had the 7th best PFF grade in the NFL and Dallas tied for 6th in yards per rush attempt.
The problem was that their defense was so bad that you shouldn’t have stared directly at it. Nobody’s corneas should be subject to something that grotesque.
Matt Eberflus’s pass defense alone was responsible for -173 of Expected Points Added, the worst in the NFL. They allowed a 109.6 passer rating against, just above Matthew Stafford’s MVP mark.
The funny part is that Pro-Football Reference ranked them No. 1 in QB pressure percentage and PFF graded their pass rush 13th. They were THAT BAD in coverage.
There is no way that NFL players can be as horrific as the Cowboys’ scheme made them look last year.
In the offseason, the Cowboys drafted Caleb Downs, added safety Jalen Thompson and they have a few younger corners who have a chance to get in the mix.
We have seen defenses regularly jump from absolute garbage to solid/average with a DC change and a couple of moves. See the Vikings from 2022 to 2023.
If they even end up ranking 20th in pass defense, the Cowboys could legitimately compete for the division. They have enough D-line talent to cause problems on a weekly basis and the offense has been consistently in the top-10 with Prescott at the helm, as long as he stays healthy.
The Cowboys also have the potential to be funny as heck again. If the contract-less George Pickens goes full receiver meltdown mode and things start to unravel, then nobody collapses quite like them ‘Boys.
I don’t think it’s going to happen though. They have a coach who guided them through some tough times without everything falling apart and a quarterback who can utilize his weapons as well as anyone.
I’m trying to prepare you for how obnoxious television is going to be if this works. Then you’ll miss all the times where Cowboys calamities were being obsessed over.
PREDICTION: Dallas’s defense will take a big step forward behind DROY Caleb Downs. The Cowboys, however, will still finish third in the division
Washington Commanders
Over-under win total: 7.5
Once you think you’ve figured something out in the NFL, the league finds a way to tell you that you can’t predict a darn thing.
I would have told you after 2024 that Jayden Daniels was about to be on the cover of Madden, Wheaties boxes and have his own signature shoe worn by NBA superstars by the end of 2025. Yet here we are wondering if he’s ever going to live up to his first season.
Daniels’ injury was largely responsible for derailing the Commanders’ entire 2025 season but his performance when he did play was unimpressive. He went 2-5 with a 60.6% completion percentage, eight touchdowns, three interceptions and a 88.1 rating. His rushing yards per game sunk from 52.4 to 39.7 as well.
Part of Daniels’ decline was also the fact that his team simply wasn’t very good. Terry McLaurin was banged up. Deebo Samuel was fine but hardly a WR1. The next most targeted receiver after that was Jaylin Lane, with 32 targets. Not ideal.
Daniels also got injured while still playing at the end of a blowout game where he should have been pulled.
Marcus Mariota didn’t even play that badly and still went 2-6 as a starter.
The Commanders’ defense finished 32nd in the NFL in yards allowed and 31st in turnover percentage. Opponents scored points on 47% of their drives.
It was just a no-good, rotten, miserable season for Dan Quinn. Now they must fix it.
In the offseason, the Commanders put a lot of their forces into the defense. They acquired Odafe Owey, a freaky athlete who has broken out as a pass rusher over the last two years. They added K’Lavon Chaisson, Leo Chanel, Nick Cross and Amik Robertson in free agency and drafted Ohio State star Sonny Styles with the No. 7 overall pick.
Maybe the biggest move they made was hiring Vikings defensive backs coach Daronte Jones as their defensive coordinator.
They picked up a few more weapons for Daniels in RB Rachaad White, TE Chig Okonkwo and they drafted receiver Antonio Williams.
Washington also changed offensive coordinators, firing Kliff Kingsbury and hiring first-time OC David Blough, a former NFL backup quarterback.
So, is it going to work?
If Daniels plays like it’s 2024, then it should. Let’s not forget that he produced a 100.1 quarterback rating and ran for 891 yards as a rookie. That doesn’t just disappear into thin air.
But there is the question of whether he’s going to be able to stay on the field. Daniels has a tendency to play recklessly, hang onto the ball too long (47 sacks in 2024) and try too hard to make magical plays rather than just getting out of bounds or checking down.
From a big picture perspective, is it too far to suggest that the entire NFC’s future hinges on whether Daniels gets it back?
OK that might be a little far but his upside remains that of a superstar quarterback. At the moment, the NFC is missing a true legendary talent outside of Matthew Stafford, who is 37. Maybe Caleb Williams could be that guy at some point if his accuracy improves. There are others who play like top-10 QBs like Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Jordan Love, Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold but they aren’t shifting the shape of the NFL because of their freakishness the way that Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes (and now Drake Maye) did in the AFC.
I still don’t think Daniels’ supporting cast is great but if he’s that guy then it won’t have to be. If he’s that guy, then Washington suddenly becomes a nightmare for the NFC, which has avoided legends since Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers aged out.
NFC teams have gotten to believe that solidifying the QB position and then building out their rosters was the way to win, while AFC teams knew that Mahomes was inevitable and Allen/Jackson would be in the way as well.
If Daniels builds on what he did Year 1, the idea that you can just build a great roster around a solid top-10ish QB and win the Super Bowl may turn into believing in the tooth fairy.
Don’t think it can happen? Well, we’re always much too quick to only believe in the last thing that we saw. So the truth about Daniels during this offseason is that he’s flawed and broken. If he returns to form though, that narrative is going to change very quickly.
PREDICTION: Jayden Daniels will rank in the top 10 QBs in the NFL and rush for 1,000 yards. Washington’s lack of weapons and defensive depth will hold them back from winning the division but they will win 10 games and finish second
New York Giants
Over-under win total: 7.5
You ever watch one of those home makeover shows where they just add some new furniture and lighting and tidy up the place a little bit and the people are blown away by how different it looks? That might be the New York Giants.
The roster has talent tossed around in a messy way, but it’s there. Brian Daboll just couldn’t organize it (and had plenty of bad luck too). There are guys who have been stars elsewhere like pass rusher Brian Burns, safety Jevon Holland and cornerback Paulson Adebo and there are a bunch of top draft picks like Malik Nabers, Abdul Carter, Andrew Thomas, Tyler Nubin, John-Michael Schmitz Jr. and Darius Alexander. They just need to be polished up and brought together.
The Giants hired John Harbaugh to be a Property Brother.
While Harbaugh couldn’t get the Ravens over the top during the Lamar Jackson era and seemed to lose control of the team over the last year, he was at the head of a franchise that consistently competed and was considered one of the most competent in the NFL during Harbaugh’s entire reign.
If the Giants can become competent, the pieces are there to compete. This offseason they made a bunch of additions — the new lamps and rugs that bring the room together — like DTs DJ Reader and Shelby Harris along with LB Tremaine Edmunds, TE Isaiah Likely, FB Patrick Richard and receiver Darnell Mooney. They sent Dexter Lawrence packing for a first round pick that they used on a potential star guard. While Lawrence was a great player, he was also part of the reason the room was so messy.
The makeover has the potential to get the Giants back into the NFC East conversation. The problem for Harbaugh is that his quarterback is a crash dummy.
Last year Jaxon Dart played like he was in a demolition derby rather than running an NFL offense, constantly diving into defenders and smashing his body into bits rather than protecting himself and staying on the field. The number of injuries that he suffered right out of the gate gives you plenty of pause as to whether he can actually stay on the field for 17 games.
When he was out there, Dart was pretty good but maybe not quite as good as he was presented to be by the QB-desperate Giants. He ranked 31st by PFF grade, averaged 6.7 yards per attempt and finished with a 91.7 QB rating.
The hard thing to trust about the Dart situation is that Harbuagh hired Matt Nagy as his offensive coordinator. Maybe Nagy has had some bad breaks, like his Bears team drafting Mitch Trubisky rather than Patrick Mahomes, but evidence of his genius has been hard to find in Chicago or Kansas City, as the Chiefs’ offense declined in recent years.
The Giants should have the weapons for Dart and Nagy to work with. It’s easy to lose sight of how good Nabers was right away despite playing with a brutal offense that couldn’t protect Daniel Jones. If he returns to 100%, he’s one of only a few receivers that could draw a Justin Jefferson comparison. And the offensive line has been built well over a few years to the point it could be a difference maker.
Where it’s hard to give Harbaugh and all the toys tossed around the room the benefit of the doubt is that they have to play in a brutal division. The Eagles are going to be good and there’s strong cases for Dallas and Washington taking big steps forward.
Are the Giants ready for this? Or is this thing going to take a couple years to really clean up?
I would tend the lean toward the latter but there’s always a worst-to-first team that we never see coming. You wouldn’t be a total maniac to bet on the renovation going smoothly and the G-Men returning to prominence.
PREDICTION: The New York Giants improve but Jaxon Dart only plays 10 games due to his reckless playing style and the Giants go 7-10. Malik Nabers catches 97 passes for 1,200 yards.