Another McCarthy injury may limit the evaluation even more
McCarthy missed the second half with a hand injury and now it's unclear whether he will play in the Vikings final two games
By Matthew Coller
Since the Minnesota Vikings drafted JJ McCarthy, they have played 33 football games. Following his exit midway through Sunday’s win over the New York Giants, McCarthy has played in 8.5 of them and it’s possible that the hand injury he suffered during the game could end his 2025 season there.
As things stand Sunday night, it’s unclear whether McCarthy has a chance to play on Christmas day against the Detroit Lions or Week 18 versus Green Bay but head coach Kevin O’Connell did say that X-rays were negative and he did not break his hand. That leaves the door open for him getting back into the mix and giving the Vikings more passes to evaluate. Even then, when every pass counts toward how they feel about their quarterback going into the future, missing a half of football after already having seven games on the shelf this year makes his progress more challenging.
The Vikings’ QB opened Sunday’s contest versus the Giants with some things to like and some things to scratch your head about. He made a desperate heave to Jordan Addison in the first quarter that should have been caught for a touchdown but was dropped. For as much as McCarthy has been picked apart, it’s undeniable that his numbers have been brought down by receivers not being able to make the same receptions that they have in the past. At least this one couldn’t be blamed on a McCarthy speed pitch.
During the next drive, McCarthy got going with Justin Jefferson finally, getting him a screen pass for a third-down conversion but then he was immediately let down again by his receiver. This time, it was the one guy who has been old reliable for him: Jalen Nailor. He dropped a very catchable throw right into the hands of Giants CB Paulsen Adebo for a pick.
Midway through the second quarter McCarthy connected again with Jefferson, this time on a very nice 16-yard route toward the sideline. That’s more along the lines of what we expected from the duo all year long. Then the luck swung back his way after getting a couple bad bounces early in the game. He threw a high fastball to Jefferson that bounced off his hands and turned into a pick-six for the G-Men but the refs called the play back due to rookie Abdul Carter lining up six inches offside. The throw was exactly the one he’s made too many times this year — too hard, too high.
After a Vikings pick, the Vikings QB then made a play with his legs to score his fourth rushing TD of the year to put the Vikings up 13-3.
That that point, you would have said that it was mostly another solid half. Perfect? No. Some type of revolutionary sign of remarkable progress? Nah. Decent? Good enough to win? Sure. Yep.
It looked similar to how he has played against Washington and Dallas, which you would qualify as being arrow up. With a 10-point lead, the opportunity was there to put the Giants in a hole and then bash their brains out in the second half. Keep building that McCarthy confidence and the KOC-McCarthy connection.
And then, as so often has happened this year, disaster came out from around the corner.
With under a minute remaining, the Vikings dialed up a screen to the left side. McCarthy went to throw the ball but hesitated and then got smashed by rusher Brian Burns. The Giants picked it up and ran for a touchdown. McCarthy was shown by the broadcast getting his hand examined and in obvious pain. He left the game and did not return.
Apparently McCarthy did not initially report the injury — which is also what happened earlier this year against Atlanta — and may have failed to get the ball out of his hands because he couldn’t throw it.
In his absence, the Giants bumbled around hilariously on offense, finishing with 141 yards and only 33 passing yards from rookie QB Jaxon Dart. That gave backup Max Brosmer a chance to come in and redeem himself for what happened in Seattle a few weeks ago. That he did with a big third-and-17 conversion throw to Jefferson along the sideline. Then the Vikings just pounded the clock away, got a big sack from Andrew Van Ginkel and flew back to Minnesota with a fairly respectable 7-8 record.
While there were a lot of positive moments for the club during the win, the biggest question facing the Vikings got only didn’t get closer to being answered, and it might have gotten farther away.
If McCarthy can’t return against Detroit or Green Bay, then what is anybody supposed to make of his season? His overall stat line is: 57.3% completion, 6.6 yards per attempt, 11 TD 12 INT 27 sacks and a 71.2 QB rating with four rushing TDs. Sitting the next two games would mean 8.5 games missed — a stat that goes beyond good/bad luck for a quarterback with a tendency to play fast and wild.
Missing more time — even one more game on Christmas vs. Detroit — chops down the number of passes that the Vikings get to see in order to make their decision on what to do at quarterback for 2026. This season, McCarthy has just 220 throws. Last year Sam Darnold had 585 passes and the Vikings still weren’t sure what they had in him and neither was the rest of the NFL or they would have paid a lot more for his services. How in the world are the Vikings supposed to decide whether McCarthy can put them back in the playoffs in 2026 based on almost one-third of Darnold’s attempt number from last season?
How are they supposed to contextualize his performance when the progress that he showed came against three of the worst defenses in the NFL? The games against Detroit (though their defense has been rocked by injuries) and Green Bay were supposed to be the best possible litmus test. A big(ish) game in front of a national audience versus a team trying desperately to stay in the playoff race and a big(ish) game against the Packers’ good defense would be a much better indicator of how far McCarthy had grown than hitting open receivers vs. the No. 29, 30 and 31 defenses in EPA.
Even if the idea that the games against the Lions and Packers would give us all the answers is dubious — hey, wait, judging a QB by two games sounds familiar, where have I heard that one before? — it would at least provide McCarthy with more experience. One of the toughest things for him in terms of development has been the stops and starts. He made big gains through 2024 camp and then had to shut it down for six months. He had some pluses and minuses through the first two weeks, then had to shut it down for five weeks. The last potential test against a good defense in Seattle was missed due to a concussion.
It seemed that stringing together five straight games, even if they weren’t perfect, would have been very good for McCarthy’s growth going into the offseason. Now nobody is sure if we will get to see him play those two games and he might have to play them through a hand injury and/or with more missed practice.
A return for Weeks 17 and 18 would be a major positive but all paths now appear to lead the Vikings to acquiring another quarterback this offseason who has the capability to start. That doesn’t have to mean throwing McCarthy aside but missing a minimum of 6.5 games already and failing to post overall impressive numbers is enough to raise red flags and require another option, especially in a 2026 season with a bunch of players still in their primes on a team that has ultimately shown to have a lot of talent.
They simply can’t risk another year of Jefferson, Addison, Greenard, Van Ginkel, Cashman, Metellus, Murphy Jr., Fries, Darrisaw, O’Neill etc.’s talents being for naught because the QB either isn’t far enough along in his progress or isn’t able to stay on the football field.
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