About that 'three-year window'
ESPN reported that the Vikings didn't go with Rodgers because they are looking at a three-year window to win. Does that make sense?
By Matthew Coller
Like many of you, I’ve been a little confused by the reporting surrounding the Minnesota Vikings and Aaron Rodgers.
We know that head coach Kevin O’Connell talked with Rodgers and we can surmise that the discussions went far enough to have some internal discussions about the idea of signing the future Hall of Famer because those conversations leaked out to several NFL insiders, who very enthusiastically reported on the matter. Some of those reports seemed to suggest that it was a coinflip, where others were much more tentative about the odds.
Once the Vikings told the world that they were rolling with McCarthy — including owner Mark Wilf directly telling Purple Insider, ESPN, The Athletic, the Pioneer Press and the Star Tribune at the owner’s meetings in Florida that they were not signing Rodgers— there remained some folks in the reporting world that seemed to be hanging onto hope that the Rodgers/Vikings thing would come to fruition somehow. Multiple insiders said that Rodgers was holding out from signing with the Steelers just in case something happened with McCarthy in the spring. Since Rodgers signed with the Steelers before minicamp, the Vikings either saw something really special in 7-on-7s for OTAs or they were just committed to the 2024 10th overall pick all along.
Anyway, with the dust settled and Rodgers nestled in the hills of Pennsylvania, one more report squeaked out last week from Jeremy Fowler of ESPN. He said that the Vikings decided to stick with The McCarthy Plan (or McCarthy-ism?) because the Vikings see a three-year Super Bowl window during his rookie contract.
To everyone who has been following the Vikings for the last three years, it would have been blatantly obvious that they were aiming to repeat the success of building around rookie QB contracts that teams like the Rams with Jared Goff, 49ers with Brock Purdy or Eagles with Jalen Hurts have had in the recent past. They moved on from a quality, expensive QB in Kirk Cousins and reset their salary cap and then spent like drunken sailors in free agency over the last two years on Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, Aaron Jones (twice), Jordan Mason and Byron Murphy Jr. and extended TJ Hockenson, Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw.
The Vikings are also aware that it hasn’t taken young QBs 10 years of development to become winners if they are supported properly. Purdy only started five regular season games the year before taking his team to the Super Bowl. Hurts had one year of development. Goff was in Year 3. In the AFC, Pat Mahomes went to the AFC Championship game in Year 2 and Joe Burrow reached the Super Bowl as a sophomore.
Again, this is all the type of stuff Vikings fans heard about repeatedly during the years where they kept extending Cousins at top dollar and failing to build complete rosters.
Things are going as planned. The only reason they would have considered Rodgers would have been because McCarthy missed last year due to injury and Rodgers would have represented more of an all-in, sure-thing big swing with a deep roster. Based on recent performance and age, it’s hard to guarantee that the legend would be better than the youthful signal caller so they stuck with the path they expected to be on in 2025.
Even if this was the projected plan all along, the idea of a “three-year window” is worth exploring.
What does that look like? What needs to happen for them to contend in the next three seasons? Is it Super Bowl in three years or bust? How far can we really look into the future?
Let’s get something obvious out of the way first: If McCarthy is a great quarterback, there is no such thing as winning windows. Every single year the Bills, Chiefs and Ravens kick off in September expecting to play in February. That’s also mostly true for the Bengals and possibly the Commanders. If McCarthy puts himself in that conversation, then rebuilds do not exist and his salary cap situation won’t keep them from competing for a Super Bowl.
If he is one level down from those guys — say in the ballpark of Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy — then you are talking about sustained yearly success with peaks and valleys. If he doesn’t reach that level, the Vikings are going pretty much need miracles to be a Super Bowl contender.
For the sake of discussion we should talk about a world where he is good enough to lead a winning team but isn’t a freakshow monster who is going to steamroll the league.
If that’s the case, the Vikings roster looks on paper like it has two seasons before a lot of decisions need to be made. The only players’ futures that we could really map out for three seasons would be McCarthy, Jefferson, Darrisaw, Murphy Jr. and possibly Jonathan Greenard and Dallas Turner. Even a young, first-round pick like Jordan Addison isn’t completely locked into having a future in Minnesota because of off-field problems and the ultimate price tag when he is eligible for a fifth-year option or extension.
If we work with just 2025 and 2026, the core is very clear. In fact, I wouldn’t take any days off in March for the start of free agency because the Vikings are projected to be $53 million over the cap going into 2026 per OverTheCap.com. Adjustments to the cap, assuming there are no changes from Roger Goodell in the near future, will give the Vikings some breathing room but the dollars are mostly spent into next season already.
Core players who are under contract through 2026 include: Brian O’Neill, Jonathan Greenard, TJ Hockenson, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Andrew Van Ginkel, Christian Darrisaw, Javon Hargrave, Byron Murphy Jr., Blake Cashman, Ivan Pace Jr. (RFA), Isaiah Rodgers, Will Fries, Donovan Jackson, Jordan Mason, probably Harrison Phillips, possibly Aaron Jones, possibly Ryan Kelly, maybe Harrison Smith. If we all think Josh Metellus is getting an extension, then count him too.
That’s a lot of core players returning. The only free agents after 2026 of significance are Jalen Nailor and Josh Oliver.
So it’s safe to say that this version of the Vikings roster will have two bites at the apple while McCarthy is under his rookie deal. It’s reminiscent of the situation they found themselves in during the 2018 and 2019 seasons. The quarterback’s price tag may have been different but the core of the group that won 13 games in 2017 was still in tact and mostly in its prime. After 2019, they were forced into a rebuild.
That’s where the stories diverge though. Even if the Vikings do go through an overhaul in two years, they will have the cap space in 2027 to replace the significant pieces that get old or leave during free agency.
Theoretically, at least. It’s truly impossible to see three years in the future. Go back and look at any random franchise’s roster from 2022 and compare it to 2025. How about the Seahawks, for example. They had Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Noah Fant as their top pass-catchers and now all of those guys are gone. There are too many injuries, contracts and up-and-down performances to project that far out. The fact that a very high percentage of the 2017 Vikings squad was still there in 2019 was a rarity.
We can talk about what needs to happen in order for the Vikings to stretch their window to three years though. First, Justin Jefferson has to remain this good. He has to be Larry Fitzgerald or Julio Jones. There is no bigger driving force to the team’s sustained success than WR1.
They will need O’Connell’s culture to transcend roster turnover. Thus far that has been the case as the Vikings were able to move away from the veterans of the old regime and bring in an entirely fresh bunch. It stands to reason that O’Connell would be able to push through tough times with his positivity and energy but this sport is unforgiving. The wrong leadership can make the best culture builder look silly. Naturally, it will be a lot easier if McCarthy is The Guy.
Culture has played a massive role in being able to sign free agents. The 2024 offseason proved that they could still lure talent to Minnesota despite a 7-10 season because of the environment (and cap space). Every player that signed this offseason mentioned the NFLPA survey ranking the Vikings highly. That has to continue.
Their draft-and-develop game has to get stronger. There are a number of young/inexperienced players on the roster whose futures are not yet decided like Dallas Turner, Donovan Jackson, Mekhi Blackmon, Theo Jackson, Jay Ward, Tai Felton, Levi Drake Rodriguez etc. that need to become the next wave of starting players. It’s great to have free agency turn into an enormous tool for team building but it can’t be the only tool.
They also can’t lose their understanding about when to push the gas pedal down and when to back off the throttle. The 2023 offseason showed a willingness to reset key areas of the roster rather than push to repeat 2022 but that was a lot easier than a potential future reset season when the roster will be made up of all KAM/KOC additions and picks rather than most from the previous regime.
One other thing to note about a “three-year” window is that if McCarthy is good enough to earn another contract four years from now, it won’t immediately destroy their chances to win. Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa didn’t make over 15% of the cap until Year 6. Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence didn’t clear $30 million until Year 7. If the Vikings are in a mode of chasing the Super Bowl, they can work out a deal that’s much more manageable than the short-term, fully-guaranteed nightmare fuel Cousins deals of the past.
Bottom line: The Vikings didn’t chase Rodgers because they believed McCarthy was right on track to bring them where they expected to be at this point in the roster build. We can see two years into the future but three is much, much harder to figure. Whether the window lasts one year, two years or five years is up to them. If McCarthy is The Guy and they maintain the environment and develop for the future, this team can enter every year with legitimate chances to win.
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