10 thoughts heading into the final three games
From JJ McCarthy to Jonathan Greenard to the special teams, a bunch of takes with the season winding down
By Matthew Coller
Well, friends, the Minnesota Vikings are down to their final three games. While it’s unfortunate that the blazing hot playoff races around the NFL do not include the purple, these games against the New York Giants, Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers still carry plenty of weight. Here’s a few things on my mind as we go into the waning days of 2025…
We have to admit that there’s no way to determine a QB’s future with a five-game stretch, yet…
There is plenty of history to warn us not to judge a quarterback by a hot end to the season. A few examples:
— Drew Lock went 4-1 with a 64% completion, 7 TD 3 INT and an 89.7 QB rating at the end of his rookie season. The following year he led the NFL in interceptions and went 4-9.
— To end 2019, Sam Darnold went 5-2 with 12 TD 4 INT and a 92.7 rating. He went 2-10 the next year.
— Mitch Trubisky finished 2018 with eight straight wins and in his final six games had a 94.4 rating and 70.1 completion percentage. He threw for over 300 in the Bears’ lone playoff game. The following season he had an 83.0 rating and Chicago moved on after the next year.
Whatever JJ McCarthy does in the final five games, particularly with three of the games coming against bottom-five defenses, probably won’t give us all the answers to what’s going to happen in 2026 and beyond.
However, the Vikings don’t have any other choice but to use McCarthy’s last stretch of the season to influence their decision making for next season. If he shines in the next three games, it would give them a lot of confidence that they could roll with a regular backup quarterback along the lines of a Carson Wentz, Gardner Minshew, Andy Dalton type rather than desperately seeking a quarterback who could save everyone’s bacon.
If he regresses against a very poor Giants team, a struggling Lions club and a Micah Parsons-less Packers unit, then there will be much greater concern that he may not be able to start at this level right now. Then they would have to push the “find a QB” button and start looking into options like Mac Jones etc.
Right now the odds appear better that McCarthy will give the Vikings confidence in him in this final stretch. They have certainly found some things that work for him i.e. play-action passing out of bigger personnel and pushing the ball downfield. Kevin O’Connell has also built everything off the run in recent weeks, which seems to have helped create some space in opposing defenses’ coverage for McCarthy to work.
Maybe the most important thing is that he’s gained confidence from the recent wins and has played fast and loose. Even with some down moments and missed passes in the last two games, he’s had no problems firing the next pass or making the next scramble.
Checking the box of being able to win games as the starter, he can go into the offseason with a chance to correct mechanical issues and come back with more command of the offense in 2026 and KOC having more understanding of what works best for him within the scheme.
Not to mention that the Vikings’ plan since this regime took over was to swing big. Even if they are worried about McCarthy’s ability to play consistently enough to win the NFC North next year, acquiring a Geno Smith, Mac Jones or bringing Daniel Jones or Kirk Cousins back would be the ultimate mid move and that’s what they were looking to escape.
It’s also worth bringing up that 10 of 14 current playoff teams have QBs that they drafted and many of them went through tough times to get there. Sometimes patience is rewarded, sometimes it’s not. Right now it’s impossible to say based on McCarthy’s young career what’s coming next.
Justin Jefferson has to have a breakout game in order to have confidence in 2026
There’s a lot of possible explanations for the lack of connection between JJ McCarthy and Justin Jefferson. They didn’t have training camp together. Teams cover Jefferson differently than any other receiver in the league. He’s dropped some balls that he usually doesn’t drop.
Whatever the explanation, they have to show signs of figuring it out in the final three weeks. As much as you’d like them to just throw Jefferson bubble screens and slants in order to get him the football, that’s not how the best version of the offense is going to work. It’s going to work by hitting him on dagger concepts over the middle of the field and hard sideline breaks that are timed well with the QB.
Last week there were quite a few close calls that made it seem possible that they will get rolling. A route over the middle that was a shade high, a touchdown that was negated, a TD that bounced off the fingertips. O’Connell and McCarthy are both aware that it’s important to get Jefferson 1,000 yards and he only needs 168 to get there. That should be doable.
But if they finish the season with Jefferson still walking to the sideline over and over as fastballs fly by him, then it’s going to leave a lot of questions about whether McCarthy is going to be able to run the full version of the offense.
Everyone seems to be in favor of a truncated offense but it’s a short-term solution, not a long-term answer in an NFC North that features two of the top QBs in the NFL and a rising star in Chicago.
Shut down Christian Darrisaw
When we saw Darrisaw walk out onto the field to take reps against the Vikings defense in training camp, it looked like they were going to get their franchise left tackle for the entire season. But it hasn’t worked that way. O’Connell has repeatedly implied that his injury was much worse than a routine ACL and oftentimes when that’s the case there can be setbacks and a more complicated recovery than Adrian Peterson coming back from an ACL in 2012.
The fact that he’s still had to miss practice and a game at this stage means there’s a strong argument for calling it a season and moving onto next year. Even if the doctors are saying that he can’t make the injury worse and doesn’t have any different risk from playing than normal, it’s clear that something hasn’t been right all year. Get him back to full health and full confidence in the knee next year and get back your superstar left tackle. Having any chance of another injury in the last three games is enough to avoid playing him at all.
The Vikings’ future at center has my attention
Saying that Ryan Kelly is a really good football player isn’t strong enough. He’s incredible. Kelly is the No. 3 graded center in the NFL by PFF and that doesn’t begin to capture all the things that he does for the team intellectually. It’s clear that he’s led McCarthy brilliantly over the last couple games and that the young QB has full confidence in his uncle-like veteran, who has seen everything that any defense has to offer.
The problem is that we don’t know if Kelly is going to play in 2026. If he remains healthy with the new helmet and guardian cap, this football-obsessed veteran may run it back for another year. That would still be pretty scary considering his injury history. They would need to begin planning for another option. The second round of the draft is often where centers are taken. It would seem to make sense to pick one who could either study behind Kelly or start if Kelly isn’t the guy.
Blake Brandel has been a very good swing player and did well at center, so he could be an option as well. But now that we’ve seen what a cheat code an excellent center can be, it makes sense to shoot high.
Michael Jurgens wasn’t terrible in his stint and there’s more development to be had. As a seventh-round pick though, it would feel very risky to put eggs in his basket outside of a swing backup.
Tyler Linderbaum is a free agent, which is absolutely intriguing if Kelly isn’t here, but he’s likely to get paid, paid, paid. The Vikings can’t play in the expensive sandbox this year in free agency. (Although, that actually might do them some good after last year’s spending spree didn’t exactly work out).
I may have been wrong about Aaron Rodgers. Or maybe not?
Lately Aaron Rodgers has been playing his butt off. He absolutely smoked the Ravens and Dolphins over the last two weeks and is now up to 22 touchdowns, seven INTs and a 98.8 QB rating.
It’s hard not to wonder after his recent showings and the Steelers’ lead in the AFC North what it might have looked like if the Vikings had said yes to Rodgers’ Favre impression and signed him for 2025. It would have kept them in the race, created some insane drama with the Packers and allowed the Vikings to develop/evaluate JJ McCarthy behind the scenes rather than staking a year of everyone’s careers on his shoulders.
So it might have actually worked out and been crazy fun.
Back when the rumors of him potentially signing came out, I was 100% against bringing in Rodgers. His last great performance was in 2021 and he had built up quite a reputation for being a nuisance with his political musings on the McAfee show and penchant for calling out everyone around him.
Under Mike Tomlin, he’s been a (nearly) perfect angel. Did not see that coming.
If he makes the playoffs and wins in the playoffs, it’s going to be a tough look for the Vikings.
The counterpoint to that is: The Vikings’ chances of winning in the playoffs with this version of Rodgers probably wouldn’t have been high unless he remains on this current streak for the rest of the year. He has a 50.5 PFF grade when throwing between 10-19 yards, where KOC likes to live with his offense. Most of his work has been quick game and occasional deep shots.
And they would still arrive in 2026 with an unproven QB who they didn’t know that much about. It was probably better to be able to assess what McCarthy can/can’t do right now in order to work with that information next year instead of going into it blind.
I say “probably” because Rodgers has a shot of playing in the playoffs and the Vikings do not.
Rolling with big personnel is something to continue into next year
The Vikings already extended Josh Oliver and they might have to bring back CJ Ham for 2026 after the way things have looked recently. Since Week 11, Ham has had between 14 and 26 plays in each game and has played a vital role in rushing and pass protection (and scored a touchdown). They have also used Ben Sims and Ben Yurosek regularly. Against Detroit, with success, Nick Vannett played a key role on a handful of plays.
This big personnel stuff works. As teams have gotten smaller on defense and opponents love to run nickel packages for the entire game, forcing them to find more linebackers to put on the field is an advantage. It also works with pass protection to help with some of the blitzes and powerful/skilled edge rushers and Oliver can make plays when called upon.
Certainly teams can build play-actions off three-receiver sets but they are especially annoying to defenses when they come out of clear run looks, as we saw one one of McCarthy’s most successful plays on Sunday night, an 18-yard throw to TJ Hockenson out of 13 personnel.
It’s always been something that KOC has wanted to do and has mixed in regularly. Especially if Jalen Nailor leaves in free agency, it may become more of their foundation.
Even if the sacks didn’t show it, Jonathan Greenard is a franchise centerpiece (and must get a new contract)
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