10 thoughts from Wild Card weekend
From the Bears' big win to Green Bay's future to the 49ers' coaching job
By Matthew Coller
Hopefully you all had a chance to watch a ton of football over the weekend. Here’s a look at some of the things that stood out…
The Chicago Bears are a long-term problem
Have the Bears looked a lot like the 2022 Vikings at times with all of their absurd comebacks in the fourth quarter? Oh yes. Will it be very hard for them to continue to play from behind and struggled defensively and reach the Super Bowl? Oh yes.
But the difference between the 2022 Vikings and the 2025 Bears is that was the end of an era for Minnesota. After that year, which ended in disappointment against the New York Giants in the Wild Card round, they sent most of the veterans who had been there for a long time packing. The Bears are just getting started.
While Caleb Williams still has his bouts with consistency accuracy, his playmaking skill should draw comparisons to Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick, Steve McNair, Fran Tarkenton… you name it. His sideline throw to convert a late fourth down was as good as any pass on the move that any QB has ever made in the postseason. And the most impressive part of his game is that he doesn’t seem to get rattled like he did last year.
With Ben Johnson pushing him, Williams is in command of the offense and confident in his leadership in ways that we never saw last year and honestly didn’t see at USC either. He’s only going to get better and Johnson’s scheme and play calling have been just as good as we thought when he was in Detroit.
If Williams was the only young player on the roster — like Jayden Daniels was last year — then maybe the future of the squad around him would still be questionable.
That’s not the case. Chicago hit home runs with draft picks this year in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III. Their other under-25 players include receiver Rome Odunze, running back Kyle Monangai and tackle Darnell Wright.
There are plenty of pieces on defense i.e. Montez Sweat, Jaylon Johnson, Tremaine Edmunds, Jaquan Brisker, Kyler Gordon etc.
OverTheCap.com doesn’t list the Bears with a ton of cap space going into the offseason but they can restructure a bunch of contracts to create space and they can use every other possible option to fit free agents under the cap.
No matter what happens next, Chicago’s full rebuild (ahem, tank) worked and they have a chance to take full advantage now that they are set at QB and HC.
The difference between Williams and McCarthy’s potential “next step”
Folks watching Williams’ ascent have wondered: Could JJ McCarthy take a step forward like Williams from 2025 to 2026?
Here’s the trouble (outside of pedigree i.e. Williams was QB1 in an all-time great QB class): In Williams’ first season, he threw 562 passes and finished with a 6.5 adjusted net yards per attempt and 87.8 QB rating with 489 yards rushing. McCarthy threw 243 passes with 5.4 ANY/A and 72.6 rating with 181 yards rushing.That’s far worse performance despite having better coaching and weapons.
The biggest stat there: Pass attempts. After two years and one playoff game, Williams has dropped back to pass 1,298 times. McCarthy, 291 times.
Whenever the question of McCarthy’s development comes up, the hardest thing to answer is how they are going to deal with the fact that they need an enormous jump in 2026 but he’s played so much less football than these other QBs.
Green Bay probably shouldn’t fire Matt LaFleur but it would be earned
The Packers were 9-3-1 and had a lead on the Denver Broncos when Micah Parsons got hurt. They lost every single game after that and blew a bunch of leads. Not to mention that Jordan Love’s top target Tucker Kraft went down with an ACL injury midway through the season, the Pack’s O-line was banged up, their secondary was banged up and their receivers are still mediocre as heck. There’s only so much that coaching can do.
Overall, LaFleur is 76-40-1 as a head coach and has made the postseason every year and ranked 12th, 8th and 16th in scoring since Aaron Rodgers left. That’s a pretty good track record.
However, he’s now 3-6 in the playoffs with numerous egregious losses. Certainly there have been some bizarre special teams events that caused L’s but the stagnation of the offense and predictable play calling in the biggest moments have been part of the LaFleur story.
With his contract up after 2026, the Pack have a choice of whether to move on from him and start anew or ride it out. Logically speaking, it makes more sense to sign him to an extension and give him another shot with Parsons and Kraft healthy. Firing good coaches that get you to the playoffs is always risky but there could be an opportunity for GB to hire John Harbaugh and take a swing with the Super Bowl champion coach.
It’s not an easy decision for Green Bay. They look like a team that’s in serious danger of getting stuck in the middle, no matter how many young players are on the roster. Jordan Love and Parsons’ contracts are not going to be easy to work around and they are still lacking in some key areas i.e. pass rush, running, OL and WR.
Seattle was hurt the most by Green Bay’s meltdown but they catch a break from San Fran
Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks wanted to avoid one team: The Los Angeles Rams. And they did so by drawing the San Francisco 49ers, who upset the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly on Sunday.
Seattle’s win over the Rams a few weeks ago was a slay-the-dragon moment for Darnold, just like his conference-clinching victory over San Fran in Week 18, but that one took a ton of luck. There was a random two-point “recovery,” a punt return for touchdown, a missed Rams field goal and a two-point conversion to win the game.
The Rams were the better team for a high percentage of that contest. Avoiding them in the divisional round versus playing a banged up 49ers club that they crushed in Week 18 is potentially a big break.
Los Angeles is also sighing with relief. The gap between the Bears and Seahawks in terms of regular season point differential is +191 to +26.
All season it has appeared that the Rams and Seahawks were on a collision course. If that comes to fruition in the NFC Championship game, whew. Of course, they both have to get there first.
Bryce Young earned some belief from the Panthers
The 2023 No. 1 overall pick has been an enigma over the last two seasons. In 2024, he was benched and then came back to put together some very impressive performances and give Carolina hope that he’d turned a corner. Then he was wildly up and down this year, putting together several brilliant games like his 448-yard, three-touchdown victory over Atlanta, and then coming apart like in the final game of the season where he threw for 154 and two picks versus Tampa Bay.
In the playoff game, Good Bryce was on the job. His final stat line wasn’t eye-popping but he led the offense to 31 points by throwing downfield more often than usual, averaging an impressive 12.6 yards per completion.
He finishes the season, including playoffs, with a 71.0 PFF grade (25th of 45), 24 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and a 86.5 QB rating.
Carolina will likely pick up his fifth-year option and give him and head coach Dave Canales a chance to continue building together.
Young shows how tough it can be to figure out whether a quarterback is “for real” or not. He’s thrown over 1,400 NFL passes and it’s still not totally clear whether there’s another level to his play.
There were quite a few folks on the interwebs who pointed out that McCarthy could follow a Young path. There isn’t much similarity between him and McCarthy though. Young won the Heisman and threw 47 touchdowns in college and then was dropped into the worst situation imaginable to begin his career. He also got 527 attempts in his first season.
This is Josh Allen’s best chance
The Bills narrowly escaped Jacksonville on Sunday, clinching the win on a Josh Allen QB sneak.
Against a great defense on the road, Allen was nothing short of Superman. He completed 28 of 35 and ran for two touchdowns. That’s despite hitting his hand on a helmet and having his leg hyperextended.
With the AFC not including Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson, Allen is far and away the best player on that side of the bracket. Buffalo has weaknesses at wide receiver and on the defensive side (particularly against the run) but in any close situation, he’s going to give his team a better chance to win than the opposing QB.
Allen’s trajectory is reminiscent of Peyton Manning. For the early part of his career, Manning had a bunch of different playoff collapses but eventually things broke his way. This year is Allen’s year.
Only one HC interview for Brian Flores (but what about other opportunities?)
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