10 takeaways from Mike Clay's Vikings statistical projections

Mike Clay of ESPN predicts everything from fantasy numbers to sacks to wins for the Vikings...what happens if he's right?

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By Matthew Coller

It has become a yearly tradition for Purple Insider to get together with ESPN’s Mike Clay to talk about his expectations for the upcoming season. The fantasy football expert goes above and beyond with his projections, estimating every player’s production, including defensive players’ stats, positional grades, game-by-game results and snap counts. What can we learn from his prognostications? What factors might play into whether he’s right or wrong? Let’s dive right into 10 takeaways from his Vikings projections…

You view Clay’s entire file for every team in the NFL here.

Listen to the entire conversation with Clay on the Purple Insider podcast here.

Kirk Cousins better get his arm loose

Last year the Minnesota Vikings threw the third most passes in the NFL only behind Tampa Bay and Los Angeles with 672 total attempts. Clay projects a similar pass-heavy offense from Kevin O’Connell’s offense with 594 passes from Kirk Cousins for 4,485 yards, 29 touchdowns, 12 INTs, 40 sacks and a QB rating of 96.5

Those totals are extremely similar to Cousins’s averages as a Viking per 17 games (4,448 yards, 33 TDs, 11 INTs) but his rating would be the second lowest since coming to Minnesota. Of course, that’s fair estimate considering his efficiency has usually gone down as the attempts have increased. Both years that he went over 600 attempts (2018, 2022), his yards per attempt have been at 7.1. In lower attempt seasons Cousins reached as high as 8.3 YPA.

One thing that could influence those per-throw stats is adjustments by Kevin O’Connell. If the Vikings’ HC/play caller wants to use play-action more effectively than he did last year, we may see more downfield attempts out of bigger personnel packages in traditional Kubiak style.

Mattison the bell cow

It has been a long time since the Vikings entered a season with anybody other than Dalvin Cook predicted to be their top running back. Now with Cook gone, the Vikings will have a training camp battle to decide how the carries will be distributed. But the competition doesn’t have every RB starting in the same spot. The Vikings brought back Alexander Mattison because they believe he can carry the majority of the load if called upon.

And that’s how Clay is projecting things to go, though not quite to the level of a normal Cook workload. He estimates 214 carries for 881 yards and eight touchdowns for the long-time Cook backup. Mattison’s previous high for a season is 124 rushes.

“I have him with 63% of the designed called running plays, that’s a respectable lead-back number,” Clay said on the Purple Insider podcast. “There isn't a clear and obvious threat to Alexander Mattison and that’s what we have seen in the last couple years. When Cook missed time… Mattison didn’t really share, he was the clear feature back. In fact, two years ago there were four weeks Cook was out and Mattison was the No. 1 fantasy running back, he had a massive workload.”

It is indeed worth noting that Mattison has put together some very good games when asked to start because of a Cook absence. In five games where he has carried the ball 20, he’s gained at least 4.3 YPA in four of them and in 11 games of at least 12 rushes he’s only been under 4.0 YPA twice.

While Mattison projects at the moment to be in the backfield often, Kane Nwangwu and Ty Chandler will have an opportunity to take carries away from the veteran. Without a good idea of which inexperienced running back will emerge, Clay projected them closely with Nwangwu gaining 270 yards and Chandler 305 yards.

As for rookie DeWayne McBride, he’s only projected to get a handful of runs (15) in his first year.

“It’s easy to say, ‘Well, No. 2 job is wide open and McBride has an opportunity,’ and that’s true but history tells us that seventh-round rookie running backs are probably not going to make much of an impact,” Clay said. “You could say Isiah Pacheco but look at seventh-round running backs otherwise.”

Clay points out that the Vikings could also add another RB if they didn’t love what they saw from the Mattison backups in OTAs and minicamp.

Regression for Jefferson?

Justin Jefferson has put together one of the best starts to a career of any player at his position in NFL history. His average 17-game season projects to nearly 1,700 yards and he’s led the league in yards per touch in back-to-back seasons. So why does Clay’s projection only have him gaining 1,495 yards?

First, opposing defenses are going to move heaven and earth to slow him down. That doesn’t mean they’ll be able to shut him out but there were times last season when the opposition forced Cousins to go to other receiving options. Over the final three games of the 2022 season Jefferson only gained 15, 38 and 47 yards as defenses loaded up on him.

It’s hardly uncommon to see elite receivers with changes in production even if they remain elite. Take Julio Jones for example. In 2015 he gained 1,871 yards on a ridiculous 136 catches. He was still dominant the following two seasons but did not top 1,500 yards. Even Jerry Rice’s lone 1,800-plus yard season in 1995 was followed up by 1,254 yards in ‘96.

“Look at the greatest player at any position in NFL history and look at their season by season, it’s not the peak season every year,” Clay said. “It’s the nature of the beast in the NFL…it doesn’t mean he’s not still the best receiver in the NFL.”

The Vikings also added Jordan Addison in the first round in order to spread out the opposition and tight end TJ Hockenson proved to be a favorite target of Cousins in games where Jefferson was limited.

So technically speaking there may be some regression but it would be regressing to the awesome rather than the mean. Jefferson’s projected season by Clay would still make him the No. 1 fantasy receiver in the NFL.

Osborn vs. Addison

Who’s WR2? We didn’t get many hints during OTAs and minicamp because Jordan Addison sat out with an injury. The debate comes down to the talented rookie vs. the proven player whose ceiling might not be quite as high. Clay estimates 57 catches for 766 yards for Addison and 52 receptions or 622 yards for Osborn.

Rookies in general can be difficult to project. Last year the top three receivers in the draft each caught 70-plus passes but they were all picked in the top 12. The pass catchers who were picked in the back half of the first round didn’t top 40 receptions. History, outside of Justin Jefferson, tends to follow a similar trend. In 2021, Kadarius Toney and Rashod Bateman didn’t stand out right away and in 2020 successful receiver Brandon Aiyuk had 60 grabs.

“Since 2011 there have been 17 receivers picked in the 15-25 range and only three got to 800 yards as a rookie,” Clay points out. “That shows you what level of an exception Jefferson was. That’s kind of why I’m hedging here and not just anointing Addison.”

There will be plenty of opportunity for Addison to rise to the occasion but there’s only so many targets to go around after Jefferson. The established trust between Cousins and Osborn is also a factor. The 2020 fifth-round pick has posted back-to-back quality season with 655 yards in 2021 and 650 yards last year. Toward the back half of last season in particular he and Cousins clicked when Jefferson was getting an absurd amount of attention. You could certainly see that happening over the full season and Osborn clearing the bar that he’s set over the past two years.

Top-3 year for Hock

After joining the Vikings, tight end TJ Hockenson was on an insane pace when it came to targets and receptions. His 60 catches on 86 targets over 10 regular season games in itself projects to over a 100-plus receptions season. Add in the playoff game in which he caught 10 passes on 11 targets and you would have a Tracis Kelce-level reception share if Hockenson was able to repeat his 2022 showing over the entire 2023 season. Clay is predicting a top-three tight end season but isn’t quite going as far as triple-digit catches. He has Hockenson making 75 grabs for 846 yards and six touchdowns.

“His usage was massive last year — not just for a tight end but for a player,” Clay said. “Those 86 targets were fifth in the whole league [after Week 10]. Think about all the superstar receivers out there. He was absolutely featured.”

It’s rare that a player acquired mid-season fits in as well as Hockenson did with the Vikings. Cousins instantly found him to be an effective security blanket, throwing repeatedly underneath to the veteran TE, who gained just 8.7 yards per reception but still had 17 first down catches on third down.

“I continue to look back at that first week…and marvel that he had a full grasp [of the offense] then, it seemed,” Cousins said last week. “We trusted him right away. We gave him a lot of volume and he handled it right away…it’s just great to continue to get the work together on different routes and talk through things.”

A good offensive line?

While the Vikings did give up the eighth most sacks in the NFL last year, their returning five offensive linemen have a chance to take a step forward and become a unit to be reckoned with for opposing defenses. That’s if — and only if — the guard position can handle an onslaught of pressure that will be inevitably coming their way again this year.

“Admittedly my ratings for O-lines, which I have them just inside the top 10 relative to the rest of the league, I lean on the tackles mostly,” Clay said. “The tackles have been really good….even with some concerns about the interior, overall I feel like this is an above average line.”

The Vikings certainly have two of the best tackles in football with both Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill ranking in the top 10 by PFF’s metrics. In response to that, opponents appeared to attack the middle with blitzes and stunts last season, giving Ezra Cleveland and Ed Ingrams trouble. That resulted in both landing in the top five of pressures allowed per PFF. The question is whether another year of experience under offensive line coach Chris Kuper that they will be able to shore up that weakness. If they are even percentage points better, the Vikings could have an above average line, particularly if center Garrett Bradbury continues his play from 2022 that saw him jump significantly from years past.

If Hunter goes, who’s sacking the QB?

You might want to avert your eyes from reading the Vikings’ sack projections outside of Danielle Hunter. Clay predicts that the entire team with Hunter will product just 39 sacks, which would have ranked 18th last season. Take away Hunter’s expected 10.5 sacks and the Vikings would rank in the bottom three.

That said, Clay’s expected sacks from Marcus Davenport (5.7), DJ Wonnum (5.5) and Patrick Jones (2.4) would go up if Hunter were to be traded because they would get more opportunities to step into his shoes.

“If Hunter is gone and suddenly it’s going from one of the best in the NFL [when Za’Darius Smith was there] to one of the worst in the NFL,” Clay said.

Clay’s expectations shine a light on how little interior pass rush the Vikings possess. The top player Harrison Phillips is only projected to have 2.7 sacks with Dean Lowry being the only other player to get more than one.

Where the projections are probably too low is with other players outside of the defensive line. With Brian Flores at that helm the Vikings will undoubtedly blitz the heck out of opposing offenses. It’s hard to guess which player will benefit most from his aggressive approach but there’s likely to be more sacks by linebackers and members of the secondary than expectations. In 2021 safety Brandon Jones alone picked up 5.0 sacks and linebacker Jerome Baker added 5.5 of his own. That could be Jordan Hicks and Harrison Smith this year.

Pinning down secondary snap counts

Coming out of minicamp, we might expect Cam Bynum and Josh Metellus to see more work than 2022 first-round pick Lewis Cine. But things can change quick once we get to training camp and Clay expects the former first-rounder to get his shot.

Here’s how he has the safety snap counts playing out: Bynum — 886, Cine — 465, Metellus — 141.

There was evidence of a three-safety system in Miami and in Vikings minicamp and the fact that Metellus and Cine both have potential to be dynamic players opens the door for a significant switch from previous seasons of only seeing two safeties hitting the field.

“Whenever you have a first-round pick like that I’m generally going to defer to them,” Clay said. “I would suspect they will give him an opportunity to win a major job.”

As far as cornerbacks go, it’s clear that the Vikings are high on 2022 fourth-rounder Akayleb Evans. Rookie Mekhi Blackmon saw lots of reps in minicamp with the first team but we will need to see more to be sure he’s going to get preference over Andrew Booth Jr.

Here’s how the cornerback snaps are projected: Murphy — 1,027, Evans — 919, Booth Jr. — 595, Blackmon — 324.

“It’s tough with someone who’s a third-round rookie when we even see first-round corners struggle,” Clay said. “Behind Murphy…those guys are just going to have to battle it out.”

The training camp battle seems wide open between everyone not named Byron Murphy Jr. Health is also a factor. Both Booth Jr. and Evans struggled to stay on the field last season.

“You think about all the Zimmer era investment in the cornerback position and for them to be in the position they are in within the secondary right now, it’s concerning,” Clay said.

Projected wins and strength of schedule

The Vikings do have a more challenging schedule than last year but Clay only projects it as the 15th hardest. Partly because he isn’t buying the NFC North. The Vikings’ 8.5 projected wins is the highest mark of any team in the division.

“The schedule is kind of boom-bust,” Clay said. “A couple top-end teams but a lot of teams that you are not afraid of.”

In terms of the game-by-game projections, the highest percentage chance the Vikings have to win any game comes in Week 1 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 71% and the lowest is versus Cincinnati in Week 15 at 28% (Kansas City in Week 5 is 29%). The biggest surprise prediction is Denver, with Clay’s projections only giving the Vikings a 43% chance to win that game. Being on the road and with Sean Payton in charge it may offer a tougher challenge than it would have in 2022.

What if all the predictions are correct?

Obviously nobody has the ability to nail every player’s production and a team’s results in a given season but we can view this as an exercise in creating realistic expectations.

If everything turned out the way it’s laid out here, the Vikings would have gone through a major roster overhaul and come out of it with an playoff berth — albeit an underwhelming one — and plenty to write home about when it comes to their youth movement. A strong season from Addison and the offensive line combined with plenty of playing time for the inexperienced defensive players would bode well for the future even if the young defense has a rough ride against top quarterbacks.

On the other side of the coin, the predictions are pretty favorable. It shows how things on the offensive side likely have to go very well in order for the Vikings to get to nine wins or more. And if the defense has as many issues as it does on paper, it will feel like they still have a long way to go before they are ready to compete with this group.

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